American on serious heater is our long-shot pick: 2023 BMW Championship odds

J.T. Poston lines up putt at FedEx Cup Playoff event

J.T. Poston is hoping to cap a recent hot streak win a huge win this week.

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

This week the FedEx Cup Playoffs head to Olympia Fields for the 2023 BMW Championship, and we’re picking a two-time PGA Tour winner who is currently on a tear as our long shot. Here’s our pick, the BMW Championship odds, betting favorites and everything else you need to know for the week.

BMW Championship odds: Long-shot bet

For this week’s second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs at the BMW Championship, we’re taking J.T. Poston as our long-shot pick at +5500 odds-to-win.

Poston has missed 10 cuts on the season, but he’s also collected an impressive seven top-10 finishes. His highlight of the year came just a few weeks ago at the 3M Open, where he finished runner-up.

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But he’s been on a hot streak since the beginning of July. Here are what his last six finishes look like, dating back to the John Deere Classic on July 9th: T6, T6, T41, T2, T7 and T24.

With two victories on his resume, including last year’s John Deere Classic, we’re hoping Poston can cap off his recent run with a career-changing victory.

If you put $10 on Poston to win and he comes through, you’ll take home $550. For additional bets, consider putting small wagers on Poston to finish top 10 and top 20.

Looking for more long-shot picks for the BMW Championship? Our honorable-mention long shots for the week are Keegan Bradley (+6600) and Brendon Todd (+8000).

BMW Championship odds: The favorites

Defending FedEx Cup champion Rory McIlroy had another near-miss last week in Memphis, finishing one-shot short of the playoff. Still, it was good enough to earn him betting favorite honors at the BMW Championship, where he comes in at +750 to win.

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Scottie Scheffler trails him closely at +800, while Jon Rahm and last week’s runner-up Patrick Cantlay are tied at +1000 odds-to-win. Viktor Hovland closes out the top 5, coming in with odds-to-win of +1600.

You can see the top 15 and ties in BMW Championship betting odds as of Monday morning below, or head over to BetMGM to see the full list of odds and bets for this week.

2023 BMW Championship betting odds (Top 15 and ties)

Rory McIlroy (+750)
Scottie Scheffler (+800)
Jon Rahm (+1000)
Patrick Cantlay (+1000)
Viktor Hovland (+1600)
Xander Schauffele (+1800)
Collin Morikawa (+2200)
Jordan Spieth (+2200)
Max Homa (+2200)
Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
Tyrrell Hatton (+2500)
Russell Henley (+2800)
Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)
Lucas Glover (+3300)
Sungjae Im (+3300)
Tom Kim (+3300)
Rickie Fowler (+3300)

How last week’s long-shot fared

At last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, we picked Cam Davis as our long shot at +6600, and he made us look pretty smart. Davis stayed consistent throughout the event, gradually improving his position each day with rounds of 66-67-69-67.

When the last putt dropped, Davis had reached 11 under, good enough for a T6 finish and a top-10 and top-20 hit for us. That represents our fourth top-10 hit and 11th top-20 hit of the year. Long-shot honorary mention Stephan Jaeger also hit, finishing T20 at the FedEx St. Jude.

Check out how our long-shot picks have fared all season long below.


2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship: Cam Davis (Odds: +6600; Finish: T6)
2023 Wyndham Championship: Harris English (Odds: +6000; Finish: T33)
2023 3M Open: Tom Hoge (Odds: +6600; Finish: T20)
2023 Open Championship: Hideki Matsuyama (Odds: +8000; Finish: T13)
2023 Genesis Scottish Open: Kurt Kitayama (Odds: +8000; Finish: T54)
2023 John Deere Classic: Dylan Wu (Odds: +6600; Finish: MC)
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Austin Eckroat (Odds: +6600; Finish: MC)
2023 Travelers Championship: Adam Scott (+6600; T19)
2023 U.S. Open: Keegan Bradley (Odds:+8000; Finish: MC)
2023 RBC Canadian Open: Nick Taylor (Odds: +6600; Finish: 1)
2023 Memorial Tournament: Keegan Bradley (Odds: +6600; Finish: T30)
2023 Charles Schwab Challenge: Kurt Kitayama (Odds: +6600; Finish: T29)
2023 PGA Championship: Tyrrell Hatton (Odds: +4000; Finish: T15)
2023 AT&T Byron Nelson: J.J. Spaun (Odds: +6600; Finish: WD)
2023 Wells Fargo Championship: Sahith Theegala (Odds: +4000; Finish: T56)
2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta: Gary Woodland (Odds: +3300; Finish: T39)
2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Dahmen/McCarthy (Odds: +4000; Finish: T11)
2023 RBC Heritage: Tom Kim (Odds: +3500; Finish: MC)
2023 Masters: Tommy Fleetwood (Odds: +6600; Finish: 33)
2023 Valspar Championship: David Lingmerth (Odds: +12500; Finish: T27)
2023 Players Championship: Corey Conners (Odds: +6600; Finish: MC)
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Billy Horschel (Odds: +10000; Finish: MC)
2023 Honda Classic: Sepp Straka (Odds: +5000; Finish: T5)
2023 Genesis Invitational: Adam Scott (Odds: +5500; Finish: 65)
2023 WM Phoenix Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +8000; Finish: T10)
2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Beau Hossler (Odds +8000; Finish: T11)
2023 Farmers Insurance Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +10000; Finish: T11)
2023 Sony Open in Hawaii: Kurt Kitayama (Odds: +5000; Finish: T73)
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions: Ryan Brehm (Odds: +75000; Finish: T35)

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