While I looked at many of the typical major championship statistics this week, like Bogey Avoidance, recent form, long Par 4 scoring, etc., it boiled down to three primary areas for me: Total Driving (Accuracy and Distance combined), Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Approach, and Scrambling.
Be long enough and find the right spots in the fairways. Be excellent with the irons, and when you miss the greens, be a magician with the short game. Do that all week and one just might find themselves a winner come Sunday.
Ross has designed many of the golf courses we see regularly on Tour. Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), East Lake (Tour Championship), and Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic). Detroit Golf Club was the only one I used as a possible comp as the other two are really very different. Pinehurst No. 2 is challenging to find a great match but a handful of courses share some of the same characteristics. I believe the run-off areas, short-game challenges, and wide fairways with little to no rough is similar to Augusta National. Inspired in his work by Ross, Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass requires many of the same skill sets that are necessary this week. The Old Course at St. Andrews has connections. I also used TPC Scottsdale, Memorial Park in Houston, Silverado in Napa, PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, The Renaissance Club in Scotland, and Southern Hills, the site of the 2022 PGA Championship.
So, who will be the 2024 U.S. Open champion? Honestly, I don’t believe there is much question.
Scottie Scheffler (3-1)
So often a good handicapper is going to try to beat the favorite. It is hard to play such a short price when there is only one winner but that one player has been Scheffler more often than not as of late. In his last eight starts, he has gone 1st-1st-2nd-1st-1st-8th-2nd-1st. Basically, it took arresting him to keep him from winning. I played Scheffler at +450 and again at 4-1 prior to the odds being re-released this week. Not only is he clearly the best player in the world, but I feel this golf course is perfect for him. Drive it long and straight, hit greens in regulation, and have special creativity and ability around the green.
Over the last 36 rounds, Scheffler is No. 1 in this field for SG: Off the Tee, SG: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, and on the Par 4’s measuring between 450-500 yards. Over the last 12-rounds, he is No. 2 for SG: Tee to Green. On Tour, Scheffler ranks sixth in Total Driving and fourth in Scrambling. As evidenced last week, you can throw the most difficult test at him and even reduce him to not having his best stuff, and he is still better than the rest. I believe he wins again this week, for the sixth time in nine starts, and I don’t mind adding a top-5 finish at around -150 or better.
Collin Morikawa (20-1)
Earlier in the season, Wyndham Clark was arguably the biggest threat to Scheffler, but since the Masters, it has really been Morikawa. Accuracy off the tee and iron play have always been Morikawa’s bread and butter but his short game has come around incredibly in the last couple of months. He seems more determined than anyone to bring his game up to Scheffler’s level. Beginning with the Masters, in stroke-play events, Morikawa’s results have been 3rd-9th-16th-4th-4th-2nd. I played a top-20 finish here as well and don’t mind a bet on a top-10 finish either.
Ludvig Aberg (20-1)
In my areas of emphasis, the young phenom is third on Tour in Total Driving, 15th in SG: Approach, and seventh in Scrambling. At one of the toughest tests of the season last week, Aberg was one of only 11 players to finish under par. Over the last 36 rounds, he is basically top-10 in this field for just about every category this week, and he ranks 61st on Tour in SG: Putting. One other note here is Aberg’s experience at this golf course. It was in 2019 that he participated in the U.S. Amateur at Pinehurst No. 2. Out of 312 players, he made it to the round of 32 before being eliminated. I also played Aberg for a top-20 finish.
Tommy Fleetwood (40-1)
Fleetwood’s best major championships have been the U.S. Open or the Open Championship. Pinehurst No. 2 is a bit of a mix of the two with its linksy style and the necessity to be especially good playing from the ground as links golf requires. Add into the mix that he took third at the Masters this year, his best-ever finish at Augusta. I really like his game for this course and his current form. On Tour, Fleetwood ranks eighth in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Scrambling, and 15th in Total Driving. It is possible that Fleetwood’s first win in the United States could also be his first major championship. I also played him for a top-20 finish.
Alex Noren (150-1)
I have since seen this number come down to 125 or 100-1, which is fine. These are some long bombs, in my opinion, that could cash but should not be invested in too heavily. My main investment is with Scheffler and for everyone else, we are counting on a nice top-10 or top-20 finish — or the outside chance that they pull off an outlier victory. Noren has all of those capabilities. He has nine top-25 finishes in his last 10 starts. He is very accurate off the tee, ranks 26th on Tour in SG: Approach and is No. 1 in Scrambling. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks eighth in this field for Bogey Avoidance and is 20th on the Par 4s ranging from 450-500 yards. Having won all over Europe, he also has links-style chops.
Billy Horschel (225-1)
No, I could not believe this number either when I saw it and sure enough it is down now closer to 150-1. Again, not a problem as these are some triple-digit flyers who ought to do well but I don’t necessarily expect them to win the U.S. Open. Like our other long shot in Noren, Horschel too has had an excellent 2024 season. He has top-10 finishes at the Cognizant Classic (PGA National), the Houston Open (Memorial Park), and the PGA Championship. He has top-15 finishes at the Valspar Championship and last week at the Memorial, and he won two months ago at Corales. Over the last 36 rounds, Horschel is fifth in this field for Scrambling, 10th on the 450-500 yard Par 4s, and is third in SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). I played both Noren and Horschel for top-20 finishes.
My card this week boils down to the man who I believe will win, three players I like to contend, and another couple of long shots who I believe will have really good weeks. Let’s sweep the U.S. Open and cash a ticket with each one of them.
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