Many of the approach shots at East Lake will come from 200-yards or more. Each of the four par-3 holes are longer than 200 yards. The majority of the 11 par-4s fall pretty closely into the 400-450 yard window. Scrambling is key. Driving Accuracy is probably more important than Driving Distance. The gnarly Bermuda grass rough is to be avoided both around the greens and off the fairways. Avoiding bogeys, I believe, is more important than making birdies and of course, approach play and hitting greens in regulation will go a long way toward that silver cup and the $25 million that comes along with it.
I believe the list of correlated courses is somewhat extensive this week. TPC Potomac and TPC River Highlands make a lot of sense to me. Sedgefield is another Ross design that has crossover I believe. Royal Troon, home to the recent Open Championship, has similarities. Muirfield Village (the Memorial) is another, with its emphasis on second shots, driving accuracy, and scrambling. TPC Southwind certainly has some differences but does have the same combination of Zoysia grass fairways and Bermuda grass greens. And finally, Innisbrook, the Copperhead Course where they play the Valspar Championship.
All of that being said, I’m right back to where I began. I believe this is simply a two-person race.
Brady’s best bets at East Lake
Before we get too deep here, there are markets out there in which one can bet who will have the lowest 72-hole score (like a traditional golf tournament), meaning without the starting strokes. Outside of the “Big Two,” I feel like Aaron Rai has a shot in this market at around 50-1. Hideki Matsuyama makes some sense at around 18-1 but you have to wonder about his health after withdrawing from the BMW Championship last week. Former FedEx Cup champs, Viktor Hovland (15-1), and Billy Horschel (35-1) are excellent choices, I believe. And finally, for a long bomb, Christiaan Bezuidenhout would be my choice for a flyer at around 70-1.
However, I’m playing the with the strokes market and have been saying for a month now that I believe Xander Schauffele (+225) is the best bet to win the FedEx Cup. He has been the best horse for this course for several years. He won here in 2017 and has finished runner-up three times. He was again the low 72-hole scorer in 2020 and in 2023. In seven trips to East Lake, he’s never finished worse than seventh.
He’s won at TPC River Highlands and Royal Troon. He’s finished top-15 at the Memorial three times and took eighth there earlier this season. Schauffele is about dead-even with Scheffler in the stats this week. They are pretty much 1-2 or 2-1 however you look at it. But he has been the better player at this golf course and he comes at twice the price.
I believe Scheffler will be voted Player of the Year on the PGA Tour and he definitely deserves it, but I’m betting on Schauffele adding one more notch in his belt at East Lake this week.
Who Chirp Golf players are picking this week
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