Players Championship staff picks to win, sleepers to watch at TPC Sawgrass

Players Championship week has arrived, but who will conquer TPC Sawgrass (and an ominous weather forecast)? Check out our staff picks for winners and sleepers to watch below. For how to watch all of the action, click here. (Below odds via BetMGM)

Players Championship picks to win

Josh Sens: Shane Lowry (+4000). With foul weather in the forecast, I’ll go with a guy who grew up playing in the stuff and has some strong history at Sawgrass.

Zephyr Melton: Hideki Matsuyama (+2800). GOLF.com’s resident prognosticator Erick Lindgren likes him this week, so I do, too.

Jessica Marksbury: Patrick Cantlay (+2000). Four top 10s in five events? Mmmhmm. Cantlay excels seemingly everywhere, and this week’s test feels suited to his game.

Josh Berhow: Cameron Smith (+3300): His best Players finish came last season (17th), proving he’s finally starting to figure out the tricky design. He’s a great ball-striker and putter, and you can’t discredit the fact that he lives in Ponte Vedra and practices at Sawgrass. He’ll be in the mix for sure.

James Colgan: Joaquin Niemann (+5000). So, Viktor Hovland is the eventual Players winner, but if I’m looking for value, I’m scooping Joaquin Niemann. TPC Sawgrass demands precision shotmaking, and the player ranking ninth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green seems like an ideal choice to do just that — and deliver a nice payout in the process.

Dylan Dethier: Corey Conners (+5000). Full-time hitter. Sneaky-good driver. Should hold up in the weird.

Jonathan Wall: Viktor Hovland (+2000). Seems to play well in trying conditions. It’s difficult to bet against an in-form Hovi at the moment.

Players Championship sleepers to watch

Melton: Beau Hossler (+20000). Hossler has been sneaky consistent of late, and he’s one of the best putters on Tour (ninth in SG: Putting). If he can get enough out of his ball-striking, he could be on the first page of the leaderboard.

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Colgan: Matt Kuchar (+25000). Ooooh Zeph, I love Hossler this week. I’ll go in a slightly different direction. How did a former Players winner like Matt Kuchar become 250/1?

Sens: Zach Johnson (+30000). Because he’s one tough mudder.

Marksbury: Sahith Theegala (+20000). He’s already proven he can play great target golf by contending at the WM. Would love to see him put on another show in Ponte Vedra this week.

Berhow: Tom Hoge (+12500). He’s trending in the right direction at Sawgrass (30th in 2019 and 22nd in 2021) and has had a great past few months. He’s also fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach this season, a handy stat for when playing the Stadium Course.

Dethier: Martin Laird (+20000). Another good driver who seems like he can avoid the big miss. If he gets hot with the putter he could definitely contend.

Wall: Dylan Frittelli (+25000). It’s called a sleeper pick for a reason. This is a total gut call.

(Looking to play any of these bets yourself? We teamed with BetMGM and the online sports book is offering a Risk-Free Bet of up to $1,000.)