Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the weekend rounds of the 2025 PGA Championship.
We’re halfway through the 107th PGA Championship, and for the second consecutive day, pre-tournament 500-1 longshot Jhonattan Vegas is the owner of a two-shot lead at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C.
Vegas set the pace on Thursday, firing a 7-under 64, and cashing as a 200-1 longshot for First Round Leader. While it is always difficult to follow up an especially low round with a repeat-type performance, Vegas held his own on Friday, shooting a 1-under par 70 to maintain his two-shot advantage.
Heading into the weekend, three players trail by two, Matt Fitzpatrick, Matthieu Pavon, and Si Woo Kim, who tied for the low round of the day, a 64, that included a hole-in-one on the 252-yard par-3 sixth hole. Max Homa, a past winner at Quail Hollow for the 2019 Wells Fargo Championship, found a groove that has eluded him for quite some time now, tying Kim with a round of 64 of his own on Friday. Homa, along with world No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, is three shots back at 5 under. Ten players are at 4 under, four shots back with 36 holes left to go.
After so much rainfall in the area prior to the championship beginning on Thursday, the golf course was still a bit soft on Friday but it appears that things are firming up quickly. I believe we can expect the greens especially to be much firmer over the weekend and increasingly difficult to hold with so many long-iron approach shots. The wind is supposed to kick up in the early afternoon on Saturday, into the 15-20 mph neighborhood. It could be “Moving Day” indeed for some of the players in the back of the pack who are teeing off early on Saturday, beating most of the heavier winds.
Backing
Bryson DeChambeau (+850)
This price might be a little light on DeChambeau — I’d love to see 10-1 or better — but I still believe he is primed to make a move over the weekend. He’s been doing everything very well except for Strokes Gained: Around the Green, where he ranks 66th in this field after two rounds and is losing nearly a stroke to the field in this area. As the golf course continues to dry out, I believe the advantage for the bigger hitters will increase as they will be able to hit shorter irons into these greens that will likely become harder and harder to hold. With the way DeChambeau is playing off the tee and with the putter, I believe he will create plenty of opportunities to close the gap on Vegas.
J.J. Spaun (70-1)
70-1 to win? Sure, why not? However, I also feel playing Spaun in the neighborhood of 3-1 to finish top-10 is a very good bet. He currently sits tied for 17th after two solid rounds of 71 and 68. He ranks 15th in this field for SG: Off the Tee and is No. 1 for SG: Approach and Driving Accuracy. It is the putter that is holding him back, losing over a stroke to the field through two rounds. I expect this will turn for the better at some point over the weekend and Spaun will find himself with a great chance to finish top 10 and possibly even better.
Harris English Top 20-Finish (+360)
Very similar to Spaun, English is playing very well from tee to green but is struggling with the putter — and English is an excellent putter. English ranks 19th in this field for SG: Off the Tee, 23rd on approach, and is seventh for Greens in Regulation — but he is 59th for SG: Putting, also losing better than a stroke to the field. I expect both of these guys to make moves over the weekend.
Fading
Max Homa (18-1)
I mentioned that Homa is a past winner here and he also has won at Torrey Pines, which I feel is a greatly correlated course to Quail Hollow. But we know how Homa has been struggling for the past year and I am not expecting him to suddenly get this worked out at a major championship. He is currently hanging on with a very hot putter, ranking 11th in this field for SG: Putting through 36 holes, but he ranks 58th out of 74 players remaining in the field for SG: Approach. If he continues to struggle with the irons, I don’t see the putter being able to hold up.
