Mexico Open betting guide: 7 picks our gambling expert loves

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Mexico Open, which gets underway Thursday in Vallarta, Mexico. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

It seems appropriate to call this one-week stop in Mexico “The Bridge.” The Ameca Bridge is the longest golf cart suspension bridge in the world, and it connects this week’s venue, Vidanta Vallarta, to the Nayar Golf Course in the Nueva Vallarta area, transporting golfers between courses, high above the Ameca River. This week’s Mexico Open at VidantaWorld also acts as a bridge between the West Coast Swing, having just ended with the Genesis Invitational, and the Florida Swing, beginning next week with the Cognizant Classic in Palm Beach Gardens.

One could argue this week’s tournament also acts as a bit of a bridge between the perceived up-and-comers on Tour and the more recognizable stars of the game. The stars were out in full force at last week’s Signature Event. This week’s field is a mixed bag of rising stars, Tour journeymen, burgeoning DP World Tour players and Korn Ferry Tour graduates.

It doesn’t necessarily light up a marquee like last week’s field but has the makings of a great competition, is an excellent study of who the next wave of contenders might be and, for wagering purposes, accelerates the likelihood that a real longshot could emerge victorious.

Vidanta Vallarta is a big track. The par-71 Greg Norman design has wide fairways, large greens, very little rough and stretches to nearly 7,500 yards. This will be the fourth time we have seen this event on the PGA Tour and while some of the more shorter-hitting, accurate players have found their way onto the top of the leaderboard, the tournament has primarily catered to the bombers, as evidenced by past winners Jon Rahm, Tony Finau and defending champion Jake Knapp.

The golf course is wall-to-wall paspalum grass, a popular turf species we see at a number of other coastal golf courses. I do believe familiarity and success on this surface is part of the handicap but I mostly took into account tee-to-green work and did not pay much attention to putting.

I looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Driving Distance, SG: Approach, Birdies or Better Gained, Scrambling, SG: Tee to Green and Hole Proximity from 175 to 200+ yards, as well over half of this week’s approach shots will come from that window.

As for the correlated courses, a site we have seen twice in the last four weeks, Torrey Pines, is a good indicator. I also looked at the Country Club of Jackson where they hold the Sanderson Farms Championship. I looked at three coastal designs that feature paspalum grass: Corales (Puntacana Championship), Grand Reserve Golf Club (Puerto Rico Open) and El Camaleon (Mayakoba).

Irons

We had a great week at the Genesis with four of our five selections cashing in the top-20 market, and we were close to getting Maverick McNealy home with a win. Seven choices this week to win and I’ve played each to finish top 20 as well.

Sam Stevens (26-1)

My hesitation here is that I am sure Stevens will be a popular choice this week. I don’t like to be too much in line with the majority typically, but he is definitely one of the hotter players in this field who also comes off recent finishes at Torrey Pines of runner-up and 31st and took 13th two years ago. Stevens has also finished third at Corales and has two top-20 finishes in Puerto Rico. Back in November, he also finished sixth in Los Cabos at El Cardonal at Diamante. Over the last 24 rounds, Stevens ranks 13th in this field for SG: Tee to Green. He is fourth in SG: Off the Tee and eighth in Scrambling over the last 36 rounds. Sitting at 25-1 or better is a great price. I don’t mind as low as 22-1.

Kevin Yu (35-1)

It was last October, in this column, that we correctly landed on Yu at the Sanderson Farms Championship. With the way he has been going and that being one of our correlated courses, I was happy to make the play on him again this week. He comes in off two straight top-20 finishes, the last being at Torrey Pines last week, where he also took sixth in 2024. Yu also has a seventh-place finish at Puerto Rico to his credit. Over the last 36 rounds he is 21st in this field for SG: Off the Tee, 15th in Birdies or Better Gained and 38th in Driving Distance.

Alex Smalley (42-1)

After finishing sixth here on debut four years ago, Smalley has missed the cut in the last two editions of the Mexico Open – and maybe that is giving us a better price on him this week. He missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open four weeks ago but otherwise has solid finishes at Torrey Pines – as well as Mayakoba – and has multiple top-10 finishes at Jackson and Corales. Other than that one missed cut this season, Smalley has finished 16-11-21. He is excellent in the key stat categories this week and in the last 24 rounds Smalley is sixth in this field for SG: Tee to Green.

C.T. Pan (60-1)

Pan took third at Vidanta Vallarta last year and has really excelled at all the correlated courses over his career. He’s been 16th and 11th at Mayakoba, runner-up at Torrey Pines and has finished 12th, 11th and ninth at the Sanderson Farms Championship. He’s solid in the stats this week as he ranks 37th in this field for SG: Approach, 22nd for Birdies or Better Gained, 15th in Scrambling and 24th in Hole Proximity from 200+ yards over the last 36 rounds. Over the last 24 rounds, Pan ranks 18th for SG: Tee to Green.

Lanto Griffin (80-1)

As we get further down the board, I encourage you to shop around since I have seen quite a bit of variance in the odds for these longer-shot players. In Las Vegas, 80-1 was the best I could find on Griffin – and I’m OK with that price – but I’ve seen as high as 110-1 elsewhere. Griffin was a player that caught my eye right away because he has been sneaky good at Torrey Pines over the course of his somewhat topsy-turvy career, with finishes as high as 12th, seventh and ninth just four weeks ago. At the Sanderson Farms, Griffin has finished 28th and 11th and missed the cut in two other visits. Other than that, Griffin hasn’t ever missed a single cut at any of our correlated courses. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 42nd in this field for SG: Off the Tee, 36th for SG: Approach and 40th in Hole Proximity from 200+ yards.

Hayden Springer (120-1)

Springer is a bomber who over the last 36 rounds ranks ninth in this field for SG: Off the Tee and 22nd in Driving Distance. He is also 33rd for SG: Approach and 12th in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards. Just last season, Springer was eighth at the Sanderson Farms and third at the Grand Reserve in the Puerto Rico Open. He finished sixth at Torrey Pines four weeks ago.

Joel Dahmen (125-1)

Another example of some price variance is Dahmen, who I have seen as low as 120-1 and as high as 165-1. He’s not a bomber. He does not fit that profile but he still gets it out there quite a ways and is deadly accurate off the tee. Dahmen has two top-10 finishes and a top-20 at Mayakoba, two top-10 finishes at Torrey Pines, has twice finished 13th at the Sanderson Farms and has finished 12th, 13th and won the Puntacana Championship. This will be his debut at Vidanta Vallarta but he did finish 14th in Los Cabos at Diamante just three months ago. He’s upper-third in this field in the stats this week over the last 36 rounds and ranks 28th for Birdies or Better Gained. Dahmen ranks seventh in this field for SG: Tee to Green over the last 24 rounds.

Who Chirp Golf users are picking this week

To make your own Chirp picks and win amazing prizes, download the app here.