Scoring conditions appear quite favorable with high temperatures expected between the mid-70s and mid-80s, very little wind, and not much chance of any moisture — and that is where the tough part comes in. Benign, dry conditions and warm weather could make this golf course increasingly firm and fast as the week rolls on.
The Masters is what we golf handicappers refer to as a very “sticky” tournament, meaning players who play well here tend to “stick” around atop leaderboards year after year. Course form is incredibly strong here, and so is experience. In general, over the years, it takes about six trips to this tournament to crack the code and win. We also find incredibly strong correlations with a few other golf courses. Riviera (Genesis Invitational), The Plantation Course at Kapalua (The Sentry) and The Old Course at St. Andrew’s are probably the strongest indicators toward Masters success for me — but I feel you can also throw in Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open) and Memorial Park (Texas Children’s Houston Open). There is quite a bit of connective tissue here that can aid in one’s handicap of the field. Course Form (Course History) + Correlated Course Success probably mean more here than they do maybe anywhere else, period.
Three weeks ago, we published my “Early Bets” piece for the 2026 Masters. I have since added one more selection and will provide the latest updates on the rest.
Cameron Young (28-1)
The Players champion is my latest and final selection for outright winner at this year’s Masters. I made this play on April 1, when he had drifted down from 30-1 to 28 here in Las Vegas at Circa Sports, where he is now trading at 19-1. Young checks all the boxes on the course form and the correlated courses list. He has twice finished in the top 10 at the Masters and has been runner-up at both Riviera and St. Andrew’s. Interestingly enough, your last two Masters champions, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, were also winners at the Players Championship that same season. Young’s last three starts leading into Augusta have resulted in finishes of 7-3-1. We last saw him at the Players, where he ranked first in scrambling, third on approach, 13th off the tee and was seventh in putting at TPC Sawgrass.
Here are the other six previously noted selections.
Collin Morikawa (30-1)
I made this play back in early March after Morikawa won at Pebble Beach and contended at Bay Hill. It was the very next week that he withdrew from the Players with a back tweak. I still believe he will be fine to play, but we’re not sure. On Monday, Morikawa described his situation as “day-to-day.” He said the back feels fine, but how the rest of his body is dealing with it has him still not feeling completely 100%. I still believe he has a great shot to win, but the truth is that it’s a real possibility he won’t complete 72 holes.
Hideki Matsuyama (39-1)
I have seen this price dip to as low as 20-1 this week after being in the 30’s for months. Matsuyama has won at Riviera and Kapalua, and of course, he won here in 2021. I loved the way he came around last week at the Valero Texas Open, where he ranked ninth in the field on approach, seventh in Greens in Regulation, 10th in driving accuracy and third off the tee. The off-the-tee game is where Matsuyama had been leaking oil. It’s a great sign to see how he drove it last week.
Patrick Reed (46-1)
This price dipped quite a bit and is now rising again. In the neighborhood of 40-1 feels right. Reed’s last start was at the Joburg Open in South Africa, where he finished 10th. He shot all four rounds in the 60’s.
Jordan Spieth (60-1)
It was hard to find this price when I got it back in early March, and now we are seeing Spieth priced in the 40s, which I feel is accurate. 50-1 feels too high. Less than 40-1 seems too low. Despite finishing 63rd last week at the Valero Texas Open, I feel good about how Spieth played. He ranked 12th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, fifth in driving accuracy and ninth in scrambling. I said it in our Early Bets column: a top-15 finish seems reasonable. With a little bit of Magnolia Lane Magic, Spieth could be ready to do this again.
Min Woo Lee (80-1)
This price has really come crashing down. I am now seeing Lee trading in the 30s, and I understand why. He has that game. He’s especially long off the tee, he ranks second on Tour in Par 5 Scoring and has a magnificent short game. The man truly has the tools. As they say, it may not be “if” but rather “when.” His last five starts have seen him go 2-12-6-32-3. In that third-place finish in Houston, where he won in 2025, Lee ranked seventh in the field off the tee, 11th in approach and 25th in putting.
Adam Scott (125-1)
This price is similar to Reed and Morikawa in that it has bounced around quite a bit over the last month and has continued to move this week. I feel like 80-1 is the right price on the 45-year-old Australian and 2013 Masters champ. Scott was in second place heading into the final round of the U.S. Open at Oakmont last summer before the weather got squirrely. He finished fourth at Riviera this season, a place he’s won twice. He was 11th in his next start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Scott ranks third on Tour this season in approach. He’s 25th in scrambling and 17th in Par 5 Scoring. Similar to Spieth, this would be something, but I do believe he has a legitimate shot at grabbing his second green jacket.
