Farmers Insurance Open betting guide: 8 picks our gambling expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Farmers Insurance Open, which gets underway Wednesday in La Jolla, Calif. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

The pre-season is over and it’s now time for big-boy golf on the PGA Tour beginning this Wednesday in gorgeous La Jolla, California.

For many years in handicapping and betting on golf, I have used the first few weeks of the season to get a feel for things: who is playing well, who is not, as a way to ease into the swing of things, just as one might with the pre-season in other sports.

It is always Torrey Pines that I have used as the first week of the “regular season,” or when we start playing for keeps. For many years, Tiger Woods would always make this week his first “real” start of the season and the fields for what is now the Farmers Insurance Open were excellent. This year’s field is not bad but it did certainly lose some luster with Xander Schauffele pulling out due to injury and Collin Morikawa also deciding to skip this week along the coast, just outside of San Diego.

The venue, however, remains unchanged as one of the toughest tests the players face all year. The South Course at Torrey Pines, home to both the 2008 U.S. Open (Tiger Woods) and the 2021 U.S. Open (Jon Rahm), stretches to nearly 7,800 yards. It is a beast. Three of the four rounds will be staged on the South Course and each player will play one round, on either Wednesday or Thursday, on the North Course. The North Course measures just under 7,300 yards and plays roughly two strokes easier than the South.

Not only is the South Course long but it also features narrow fairways and thick rough, making Total Driving — a combination of both length and accuracy off the tee — one of the more important statistics this week.

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Of the 10 par 4s on the South Course, only one measures less than 400 yards. The other nine average over 460 yards, so I looked at how players perform this week on those holes that fall into the 450-500 yard window. I also used Hole Proximity from 200 yards plus. A great number of approach shots will come from this distance, including three of the four par 3s that measure over 200 yards.

Finally, I looked at Scrambling and Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa Annua greens. Poa Annua is a common surface we see in California and especially on the coastal courses. It is a spongy type of grass that some players really struggle with. Scrambling has always been a big factor at Torrey Pines because many greens are going to be missed when hitting so many approach shots from so far away — and getting up and down without giving shots back will go a long way toward one’s success this week.

Quail Hollow in Charlotte, N.C., is always one of my go-to correlated courses this week because of the shared importance of Total Driving. Keep in mind, Quail Hollow will host the PGA Championship this May, so take notes this week at a similar test. I also used the Country Club of Jackson where they play the Sanderson Farms Championship. Vidanta Vallarta made the list, as did Corales Golf Club, Valhalla, and Caves Valley, where they played the 2021 BMW Championship.

The list is long. I played a total of eight outrights this week, but only two are less than 50-1 shots. I also played each for a top-20 finish.

8 betting picks for Farmers Insurance Open

Keegan Bradley (22-1)

I played this early on Monday and I have since seen better numbers surface, like closer to 25-1, so as always, shop around. Bradley’s play has looked inspired to me as of late and my feeling is it stems from his being named the Ryder Cup captain. He has always been an excellent ball striker and ranked 15th on Tour in Total Driving in 2024. This week, he ranks 30th in this field for Good Drives Gained over the last 36 rounds and is 19th on the 450-500 yard par 4s. I mentioned the inspired play — Bradley won the BMW Championship back in August and just took fifth at the Hero World Challenge in December. Two weeks ago, he finished sixth at the Sony Open. Bradley has four top-25 finishes here at Torrey Pines and three top-5 finishes. He has twice finished top 5 at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Tony Finau (26-1)

If it’s not Jon Rahm or Tiger Woods, then “Mr. Torrey Pines” has to be Tony Finau. No, he’s never won here, but in 10 visits, Finau has recorded three top-25 finishes and six top-10 finishes. He’s pretty much a machine around here and for that reason, I had to have him on the card. In three trips to Vidanta Vallarta for the Mexico Open, Finau has finished 2-1-13. He was 18th at the PGA Championship at Valhalla and finished 15th at the BMW Championship in 2021 at Caves Valley. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks second in this field for SG: Approach and 19^th for Good Drives Gained.

Aaron Rai (52-1)

Rai comes off of a 15th place finish at The Sentry in Maui and his first-ever PGA Tour victory at the Wyndham Championship back in August. He is extremely accurate off the tee and ranked 47th in Total Driving on Tour last season. He’s never missed a cut here at Torrey Pines and finished sixth in 2022. Over the last 36 rounds, Rai is ninth in this field for SG: Approach, and is top 25 on both the par 4s and in Scrambling.

Beau Hossler (55-1)

Hossler began his season last week in La Quinta, taking 12th at the American Express. Prior to that, he was red-hot over the FedEx Fall, with two top-25 finishes, an 11th, and a loss in a playoff at the Sanderson Farms, where he also finished 10th back in 2017. Hossler has two top-10 finishes here at the Farmers Insurance Open, including sixth last year, and was 10th at Vidanta Vallarta in 2023. If Hossler is feeling it from tee to green this week, it could be a successful run in La Jolla as the short game chops are there. Over the last 36 rounds, he is 22nd in this field for Scrambling and 23rd for SG: Putting (Poa Annua).

J.J. Spaun (60-1)

Spaun is plenty familiar with this golf course, having grown up in Los Angeles and attended San Diego State University. He has two tournaments under his belt already this season, finishing third at the Sony Open and 29th last week at the American Express. He has a top-10 finish here as well as a top 25 and two top-30 finishes at Quail Hollow. Spaun is No. 1 in this field for SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds, 42nd for Good Drives Gained, 29th in Hole Proximity from 200 yards plus, and is 17th on the 450-500 yard Par 4s.

Gary Woodland (85-1)

Throughout his career, Woodland’s strength has always been driving the golf ball. He also won a U.S. Open on Poa Annua greens, up the coast at Pebble Beach. He finished 16th two weeks ago at the Sony Open and was 16th back in October at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Speaking of 16, it will be Woodland’s 16th time playing the Farmers Insurance Open this season. His best finishes have been 9-10-12-18-20. He’s also been top 20 twice and top 5 twice at Quail Hollow. 

Harris English (110-1)

It is nearly a straight flush for English when you look at his best results at some of our correlated courses. He’s been runner-up here at Torrey Pines, third at Quail Hollow, fifth at Corales, and sixth at the Sanderson Farms. He was also 18th last year at Valhalla and finished 26th at Caves Valley in 2021. He’s another player for which Total Driving has been a strength, ranking 12th on Tour in that category last season. In three of his last four starts over the FedEx Fall, English finished 6-9-14. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 37th in this field for SG: Putting (Poa Annua) and is third in Scrambling.

Henrik Norlander (160-1)

I’ve seen the number on Norlander anywhere from 140-1 to as high as 200-1. Yes, he is a long shot for sure, but he makes some sense as someone that certainly has the potential for success here this week. Like Rai, he is brutally accurate off the tee and ranked 55th on Tour last season in Total Driving. He is an exceptional ball-striker and ranks fourth in this field on the 450-500 yard par 4s over the last 36 rounds. He’s been as high as runner-up here at the Farmers, 16th at Quail Hollow, 13th at Vidanta Vallarta, and has finished fourth twice and runner-up once at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

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