Charles Schwab Challenge weekend betting guide: 3 picks for the final rounds

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the weekend rounds of the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge.

It really is a great stretch in the golf season. The triple-play of golf legends tied to the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, Charles Schwab Challenge (Ben Hogan), and Jack Nicklaus hosting the Memorial next week. We got to see a classic like the Philadelphia Cricket Club host a Signature Event, priming the pump for the PGA Championship. After the Memorial, it is the Canadian Open and United States Open, followed shortly thereafter by the Scottish Open and the Open Championship. A pretty tasty run indeed for both golf fans and golf bettors.

As it stands currently, we are knocking on the door of Memorial Day Weekend and are only half-way through the second leg of the legend trifecta with 36-holes in the books at “Hogan’s Alley” in Fort Worth, TX. Maybe what is most surprising is the world’s best Longhorn himself, Scottie Scheffler, is not winning. In fact, he’s 10 shots off the lead and 35-1 to win the golf tournament. When was the last time we saw a price like that on the now three-time major champion?

Scheffler looked like he was in position to do his thing once again after firing a 2-under par 68 on Thursday but he followed it up with a 1-over par 71 on Friday. Scheffler is tied for 49th with two rounds left to play.

News

A winner in the team event last month, the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Ben Griffin shares the lead here with Matti Schmid. Both are at 11 under for the tournament — an exceptional start, considering the winning score proposition bet posted in Las Vegas, pre-tournament, was 13.5 under par. Surprise First Round Leader, John Pak is two shots back and in third place. Akshay Bhatia is four back at 7-under. Six players are tied at 6-under including, Rickie Fowler, J.J. Spaun, and Tommy Fleetwood.

It appears we are in for high temperatures in the low 90s on Saturday and Sunday with wind both days ranging from 10 to 20 mph. It does not appear that it will be easy. Friday may end up being the best day for scoring that we’ll see all tournament.

Backing

Ben Griffin (+210)

We landed correctly on Griffin (and playing partner Andrew Novak) in our preview column last month for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. It seems both players were just in need of that wingman to help get them across the finish line. Having now tasted victory, I believe Griffin is ready to do it solo. He’s doing everything very well. Seventh in SG: Approach, fourth for Greens in Regulation, sixth in SG: Around the Green, and he’s No. 1 in this field for SG: Tee to Green. Griffin is gaining over three strokes on the field with the putter and currently ranks 10th in this field for SG: Putting. Honestly, I’d love it if he were just a little cooler heading into the weekend as far as putting, making it more likely that he improves rather than regresses over the next two rounds. He is a very good putter though and while he may slip a little bit, with how everything else is going for him, I believe he has enough to get it done.

Emiliano Grillo Top 5 Finish (+400)

Grillo is 30-1 to win and +175 to finish top 10. I don’t think either of these are bad plays to make either. He won here at Colonial in 2023. Through two rounds, Grillo currently ranks 14th in this field for SG: Off the Tee. He’s No. 1 in Driving Accuracy, fourth for Greens in Regulation, and sixth for SG: Approach. His ball striking has been excellent. He is third in SG: Tee to Green. He ranks 68th in SG: Putting, though — and this is for a guy who has totally turned around his game with the putter. Grillo is 48th on Tour in SG: Putting. It wasn’t too long ago that he was one of the worst in the game with the flatstick. That has since changed and I expect it to change here too over the weekend.

Fading

Matti Schmid (+400)

Schmid has been making his living this season in the alternate field events but has not fared so well against upgraded competition. He was sixth at the Puerto Rico Open, ninth at Corales Puntacana, and seventh a few weeks ago at the Myrtle Beach Classic. He’s missed the cut however, in every event so far this year in the state of Texas: the Houston Open, the Valero Texas Open, and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Schmid currently ranks No. 1 in this field through two rounds for SG: Putting. At the same time, he is 61st in Driving Accuracy and 60th for Greens in Regulation. He ranks 31st in SG: Approach and is 25th for SG: Around the Green. Schmid is a solid putter but he’s playing above his head with the flatstick to this point and I expect that to regress over the weekend. If the putter falls off, the way the rest of his game is going right now, I don’t see him hanging on all the way through Championship Sunday.