I looked at Stokes Gained: Ball Striking, Approach, and Off the Tee. I also considered Driving Distance, Birdies or Better Gained, and Hole Proximity from 175-yards or more. Finally, we are on Bentgrass this week and that is the type of surface I applied to my incorporation of Strokes Gained: Putting.
As for correlated courses, I wanted to use long, driver-heavy tracks. Memorial Park in Houston (Houston Open) makes sense, as do Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines, home to recent major championships as well as the Wells Fargo Championship and Farmers Insurance Open respectively. I looked at Pinehurst No. 2, where the 2024 U.S. Open was held and finally, Olympia Fields, where most recently the 2020 and 2023 BMW Championships were played.
With only 49 players in the field this week, I played four guys at reasonable odds and then took a couple of stabs on two longshots for very little risk.
Ludvig Aberg (22-1)
It has been an up and down year for the big Swede, but he did pick up his second-ever PGA Tour victory at Torrey Pines when the Genesis Invitational was played there back in February. He has also finished top 10 in two of his last three starts. Last week in Memphis, Aberg ranked fifth in the field for SG: Off the Tee and 14th for Driving Accuracy. He was also 12th at Pinehurst last June. I like the way his game is shaping up right now and this course ought to be right up his alley.
Cameron Young (30-1)
Here’s another guy who is a bomber off the tee — and as of late, he has been putting beautifully. Off of his first-ever Tour win two weeks ago, he took fifth last week at TPC Southwind. He’s been as high as 20th at Torrey Pines, 15th at Olympia Fields, and was runner-up at Quail Hollow in 2022.
Hideki Matsuyama (38-1)
Like Aberg, here’s another guy we were on early in the season for a winner but has been a bit of a disappearing act since. Although, it looks like the form might be coming back around as Matsuyama has finished top 20 in each of his last four starts and hasn’t missed a cut in three months. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks top 5 in this field for SG: Approach and in Hole Proximity from 175 yards or more.
Ben Griffin (40-1)
Griffin has been about as steady as they come this season with nine top-10 finishes, including two wins. He does everything well including length off the tee and putting. Over the last 24-rounds, Griffin is 14th in this field for Driving Distance and 19th for SG: Putting (Bentgrass). One of those top 10s came at Quail Hollow when he finished eighth at the PGA Championship.
Taylor Pendrith (70-1)
Pendrith was fifth at the PGA Championship back in May at Quail Hollow, was fifth at the Houston Open in April, and finished 16th last year at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst. He’s finished seventh, ninth, and 16th at Torrey Pines in his career. He’s a big hitter who hits greens in regulation and ranks ninth in this field for Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards. He is one of our longshots, yes, but I believe his game definitely makes sense for this course.
Thomas Detry (180-1)
Same with this guy, who, like Pendrith, also has an excellent track record at some big-boy, driver-heavy golf courses — and also happens to be a terrific putter. Furthermore, Detry is chasing a spot on the European Ryder Cup team as he is currently 13th in the standings. He’s finished top 20 twice at Torrey Pines, was 14th at Pinehurst last year, and was also runner-up in Houston last season. Again, another longshot who probably ought to be priced closer to 120-1 rather than 150-1 or higher. Let’s cross our fingers this week and see if we can run into a payoff rather than a playoff.
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