BMW Championship betting guide: 6 picks our gambling expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2025 BMW Championship, which gets underway Thursday at Caves Valley GC in Owings Mills, Md.. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both free-to-play and daily fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

If you are a regular follower of this column, you can likely attest to what a weird season it has been for us as far as playoffs.

It began with our selection of J.J. Spaun (110-1) losing in a playoff to Rory McIlroy at the Players Championship. A month later, McIlroy beat us in a playoff again when we were on Justin Rose, also at triple-digits (110-1) to win the Masters. Fast forward to late June when our guy, Chris Kirk (80-1) lost in a playoff at the Rocket Classic.

Last week at TPC Southwind, I really thought we were going to get over the hump. We hit Hideki Matsuyama (28-1) for a winner here last year and I thought we were going to make it two seasons in a row with Spaun (50-1). And then yet again, we went to the dreaded extra holes. Oddly enough, it was McIlroy who got us against both Spaun and Rose earlier in the year, and now with McIlroy not in the field, it was Spaun versus Rose in the playoff, of which we of course came out on the losing end again. A fun story to tell, a fun sweat down the stretch in each, but not exactly the most fun results.

Onto Caves Valley and the BMW Championship. It is Round 2 of the 2025 FedEx Cup Playoffs and we’re down to the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings. Once again, this is a no-cut event and for the second straight week, we are short a player as Sepp Straka has withdrawn due to a family matter.

Caves Valley is a Tom Fazio design and played host to this championship back in 2021 but we can expect things to be much different four years later. The golf course had been overrun with rain leading up to that event in 2021. The players played lift, clean, and place for four days and beat the course to a pulp. Patrick Cantlay and Bryon DeChambeau both finished a whopping 27 under par in regulation. Cantlay eventually bested DeChambeau on the sixth playoff hole to capture the title. Did I just say “playoff” again? Ouch.

There are some lingering thundershowers in the forecast this week but nothing like we experienced previously. Temperatures will be in the low 90s and little to no wind is expected. More importantly, the golf course will play as a par 70 this time around as opposed to a par 72 like it did in 2021. Length was added too. Caves Valley this week will tip out at 7,600 yards and that is a beast of a Par 70. Big hitters dominated this tournament four years ago and I expect we’ll see that be the case again here this year.

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I looked at Stokes Gained: Ball Striking, Approach, and Off the Tee. I also considered Driving Distance, Birdies or Better Gained, and Hole Proximity from 175-yards or more. Finally, we are on Bentgrass this week and that is the type of surface I applied to my incorporation of Strokes Gained: Putting.

As for correlated courses, I wanted to use long, driver-heavy tracks. Memorial Park in Houston (Houston Open) makes sense, as do Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines, home to recent major championships as well as the Wells Fargo Championship and Farmers Insurance Open respectively. I looked at Pinehurst No. 2, where the 2024 U.S. Open was held and finally, Olympia Fields, where most recently the 2020 and 2023 BMW Championships were played.

With only 49 players in the field this week, I played four guys at reasonable odds and then took a couple of stabs on two longshots for very little risk.

Ludvig Aberg (22-1)

It has been an up and down year for the big Swede, but he did pick up his second-ever PGA Tour victory at Torrey Pines when the Genesis Invitational was played there back in February. He has also finished top 10 in two of his last three starts. Last week in Memphis, Aberg ranked fifth in the field for SG: Off the Tee and 14th for Driving Accuracy. He was also 12th at Pinehurst last June. I like the way his game is shaping up right now and this course ought to be right up his alley.

Cameron Young (30-1)

Here’s another guy who is a bomber off the tee — and as of late, he has been putting beautifully. Off of his first-ever Tour win two weeks ago, he took fifth last week at TPC Southwind. He’s been as high as 20th at Torrey Pines, 15th at Olympia Fields, and was runner-up at Quail Hollow in 2022.

Hideki Matsuyama (38-1)

Like Aberg, here’s another guy we were on early in the season for a winner but has been a bit of a disappearing act since. Although, it looks like the form might be coming back around as Matsuyama has finished top 20 in each of his last four starts and hasn’t missed a cut in three months. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks top 5 in this field for SG: Approach and in Hole Proximity from 175 yards or more.

Ben Griffin (40-1)

Griffin has been about as steady as they come this season with nine top-10 finishes, including two wins. He does everything well including length off the tee and putting. Over the last 24-rounds, Griffin is 14th in this field for Driving Distance and 19th for SG: Putting (Bentgrass). One of those top 10s came at Quail Hollow when he finished eighth at the PGA Championship.

Taylor Pendrith (70-1)

Pendrith was fifth at the PGA Championship back in May at Quail Hollow, was fifth at the Houston Open in April, and finished 16th last year at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst. He’s finished seventh, ninth, and 16th at Torrey Pines in his career. He’s a big hitter who hits greens in regulation and ranks ninth in this field for Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards. He is one of our longshots, yes, but I believe his game definitely makes sense for this course.

Thomas Detry (180-1)

Same with this guy, who, like Pendrith, also has an excellent track record at some big-boy, driver-heavy golf courses — and also happens to be a terrific putter. Furthermore, Detry is chasing a spot on the European Ryder Cup team as he is currently 13th in the standings. He’s finished top 20 twice at Torrey Pines, was 14th at Pinehurst last year, and was also runner-up in Houston last season. Again, another longshot who probably ought to be priced closer to 120-1 rather than 150-1 or higher. Let’s cross our fingers this week and see if we can run into a payoff rather than a playoff.

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