2024 PGA Championship picks to win: Here’s who we are betting on at Valhalla

Ludvig Aberg

Ludvig Aberg last month at the Masters, where he finished second.

Getty Images

Late Sunday afternoon on the Masters final day, Peter Hanson made a declaration to a handful of reporters. His student had given it a good run at Augusta, finishing runner-up to Scottie Scheffler, and now the talk turned to the next month and the next major, the PGA Championship at Valhalla in Louisville, Ky. 

Only Ludvig Aberg and Team Aberg needed no reminders of what was ahead. 

They were seemingly counting down the days.

“I’m excited for Kentucky,” Hanson said. “Can’t wait.”

PGA Championship Valhalla
2024 PGA Championship sleeper picks: Here’s who might break out at Valhalla 
By: Nick Piastowski

Was it just coach speak? Perhaps. It wasn’t as if Hanson was going to say he wasn’t amped up. But the young superstar didn’t shutter the talk, either. In his press conference after his round, Aberg was told of his coach’s comment, and he was then asked if he now felt differently going into the PGA.

“I think so,” Aberg said. “This being my first major championship, you never really know what it’s going to be like until you’re there and experience it. I think this week has given me a lot of experiences and a lot of lessons learned in terms of those things. It makes me really hungry, and it makes me want to do it again and again, I think.”

It’s something you like to hear this week, should you be trying to pick a winner with the PGA now upon us. Aberg has the complete bag. He has the steady approach. Now, though he sat out last week with a knee injury, he’s champing at the bit to get going again, to borrow a phrase originated with horses, as the PGA settles in in Kentucky Derby country.   

With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis. 

2024 PGA Championship picks to win 

Ryan Barath

To-win: Brooks Koepka, +1,400. Brooks has become a PGA Championship specialist, and his game seems to be coming into form after a recent win on LIV. The course will be long, the rough will be thick, and if he just does “Brooks things” like he did last year at Oak Hill, it would give him four of the past seven PGAs, which is a pretty incredible feat. 

Adam Christensen 

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,800. Xander feels like too talented a player to finish his career without a major win. He’s been putting the ball extremely well and has gained some speed off the tee recently, which will help at Valhalla. It’s probably going to be Scottie, but if it’s not, I love Xander’s chances.

James Colgan 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler +400. Has anyone proven they can beat him? No? OK, still rolling with Scottie.

Dylan Dethier   

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,800. Schauffele at 18-1 is a massive bargain. At least, that’s what I’m telling myself as I pick him for the 18th consecutive major. But other than Scottie, nobody is playing much better golf than this fella. He’ll be in the mix.

Emma Devine

To-win: Brooks Koepka, +1,400. Yes, Brooks is fresh off a win. Yes, Brooks historically dominates PGA Championships. But the real reason Brooks is taking it home at Valhalla? He was a recent guest of the “Scoop,” of course! PLUS, his wife, Jena, Sims was featured last year, making that duo the only married couple to both be featured guests. Tough to bet against the Scoop Effect on this one.

Nick Dimengo    

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. I can’t believe I’m actually doing this, but, whatever. Nobody’s been better than Scottie this year. Though he’s about to become a new dad, meaning little-to-no sleep and lots of distractions, the world’s No. 1-ranked player can be running off adrenaline and fumes and still shoot lower than anyone in the field. He’s that good, and I think we’re about to see a historic 2024 from him.

Connor Federico  

To-win: Rory McIlroy, +1,200. Ten years ago, Rory won his fourth major title with a victory at Valhalla, edging out the likes of Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler. But he’s been major-less since. Can he recapture that magic from a decade ago? I like his odds of repeating history. 

Viktor Hovland and caddie Shay Knight at the Puerto Rico Open in February.
How often favorites win tournaments (and when to bet on them)
By: Nick Piastowski

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Rory McIlroy, +1,200. The heart wants what the heart wants. He was really ticked last year when Brooks got his fifth major title to move ahead of him. It’s safe to say that McIlroy has finally found his form in 2024 with his team win at Zurich. What a way to end his major title drought than to win at Valhalla — where his major drought began 10 years ago. Also, I’m just not 100 percent sure Scottie Scheffler is going to play. And if he does, he’ll be sleep-deprived from new fatherhood.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Brooks Koepka, +1,400. Koepka has proven himself to be a PGA king over the past decade, with eight top-15 finishes since 2015 — not to mention three wins and one runner-up in the past six years. Valhalla seems like a course that will play to his strengths, so there’s no way I’m going to underestimate him now.

Zephyr Melton 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. It’s tough to pick anyone but Scottie at this point. Until someone proves they can dethrone him while he’s playing this well, I’ve got to continue picking him.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Brooks Koepka, +1,400. He was mad after his Masters finish. That’s all I need to hear. 

Josh Sens

To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +2,500. Bryson might as well be in the witness protection program these days for all we see of him. But our glimpse of him at Augusta was a good reminder of how much game is lurking in him. And Valhalla should be the perfect kind of course for him to bomb-and-gouge his way around.

Nick Piastowski

Nick Piastowski

Golf.com Editor

Nick Piastowski is a Senior Editor at Golf.com and Golf Magazine. In his role, he is responsible for editing, writing and developing stories across the golf space. And when he’s not writing about ways to hit the golf ball farther and straighter, the Milwaukee native is probably playing the game, hitting the ball left, right and short, and drinking a cold beer to wash away his score. You can reach out to him about any of these topics — his stories, his game or his beers — at nick.piastowski@golf.com.