“This has probably been the ultimate roller-coaster ride, and I hate roller coasters.”
Fun quote, right? It came from Trevor Immelman after his win at the 2008 Masters. And yes, he had had some downs, followed by a big up.
— Four months earlier, in December of 2007, Immelman had undergone surgery to remove a noncancerous tumor on his diaphragm.
— A week earlier, at the Houston Open, he had missed the cut.
— He had entered the Masters with 150-1 odds to win, according to golfodds.com.
— Then Immelman shot rounds of 68, 68, 69 and 75 to win by three over Tiger Woods. (To note, the Sunday final round saw windy conditions, and only two players broke 70.)
Whew.
“Here I am, after missing the cut last week, the Masters champion,” Immelman said at the time. “That’s the craziest thing I’ve ever heard of.”
Fifteen years later after Immelman’s run, it’s all something to keep in mind this week, when the Masters plays again. In short, while the favorites do well at Augusta National, so have players a little under the radar.
Let’s see if we can find a few then.
Below, our staff members have each made a long-shot bet to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook.
2023 Masters sleeper picks to watch
Ryan Barath
Sleeper pick: Shane Lowry +5,000. Shane’s wedge game is top notch, and that could be the difference. He also T3 last year.
Alan Bastable
Sleeper pick: Bernhard Langer, +100,000. Two MCs in his past two Masters starts is not cause for confidence — and neither, you might be saying, is Langer’s age: 65! But the forecast calls for rain and humidity, and a soft-ish course plays into Langer’s hands, as we saw in the fall 2020 Masters when he hit virtually every fairway and finished 29th. If the conditions cooperate again, he can driver-and-hybrid the place into submission.
Josh Berhow
Sleeper pick: Tommy Fleetwood, +6,600. He’s played good but not great here, but Fleetwood has the type of game that usually translates well to this golf course. I like the value with his odds here.
James Colgan
Sleeper pick: Abe Ancer, +10,000: It feels as though LIV’s relative obscurity has opened up a market inefficiency for bettors, one that feels ripe for the taking in Abe Ancer, who’s nabbed a few top-25 finishes in recent years.
Dylan Dethier
Sleeper pick: Bryson DeChambeau, +10,000: Hard to believe, but it was just two and a half years ago that DeChambeau was the consensus favorite at this event. He’s never shown particularly well at Augusta, he’s struggled on its greens, and he’s also been in poor form in LIV events. But that’s why he’s a sleeper! Surely there’s some of the old Bryson hanging out in there and he’ll stop tinkering and zero in for the year’s first major. I’m intrigued to see how he plays, and at these odds, he seems worth a nibble. (Sidenote: Bet his ex-buddy Tiger Woods, too, while he’s still over 50-1 odds. Just do it.)
Nick Dimengo
Sleeper pick: Brooks Koepka, +6,600. There’s just something about Brooksy that keeps me coming back. Maybe it’s his tenacity and four major titles, because I still think he has the ‘it’ factor. I think Koepka was embarrassed by his portrayal in Netflix’s Full Swing, where it appeared he couldn’t cut it with some of the world’s top players. Driven by that competitiveness, he’ll be out to show that he doesn’t fear anyone from either tour — causing full-blown chaos at Augusta with a LIV player winning the green jacket. With three top-11 finishes in previous starts at Augusta, he has the familiarity to make some noise.
Connor Federico
Sleeper pick: Kurt Kitayama, +12,500. Before we crowned Scheffler and Smith as the kings of golf last season, they had to start somewhere. Smith finished with a casual 34-under at the Tournament of Champions before winning the Players and the Open. And Scheffler won three events in the months leading up to his convincing win at Augusta, including the Arnold Palmer Invitational — where Kitayama also won. He beat a loaded field at one of the Tour’s toughest courses, Bay Hill, often seen as a great place for pros to gauge their game ahead of the Masters. He hasn’t (yet) done what Scheffler or Smith did in ‘22, but Kurt’s win and three top 10s this season give him a chance to write a similar story.
Jack Hirsh
Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +10,000. OK, so he’s been a little Jekyll and Hyde of late, with three MCs and four top 10s in 11 starts this season, but that includes his first win in four years last fall at the Zozo Championship. He’s really turned his putting around — from 186th in 2021 to 60th this season — and that’s all he needs when you hit the ball as well as Bradley does. He’ll be making his first trip to Augusta since 2019 and he doesn’t have the greatest history there, but hey, this is supposed to be a sleeper pick right?
Jessica Marksbury
Sleeper pick: Justin Rose, +6,600. A win at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February and a T6 at the Players are optimistic signs of resurgence for Rose. Plus, he’s usually a solid bet at Augusta, where he’s posted eight top-14 finishes in his past 12 appearances.
Zephyr Melton
Sleeper pick: Corey Conners, +5,000. T10, T8, T6. Those are Conners’ finishes the past three years at Augusta. He’s proven he can contend at the Masters; now all he needs to do is hole a few clutch putts and he’s got a great chance to wear the green jacket.
Nick Piastowski
Sleeper pick: Keith Mitchell, +8,000. This is a hunch. Maybe the hunchiest of hunches. But he’s been in the conversation all year long. Sharply dressed Cashmere Keith slips on a sportcoat.
Tim Reilly
Sleeper pick: Phil Mickelson, +20,000. Contending at the Masters this year would be a spectacle — for a number of reasons. Hand up, I’m cheering for the drama with this pick. But, Phil has won the Masters three times and we’ve seen golfers with successful Masters’ track records defy the odds when it comes to age at Augusta National. I’m tossing a few bucks Lefty’s way in hopes of catching one more thrill from Phil. You know he’s coming into the week motivated after sitting 2022 out.
Josh Sens
Sleeper pick: Danny Willett, +12,500. I concede that “two-time Masters champion Danny Willett” doesn’t have the ring of inevitability. But that’s why it’s called a long shot. And given Willett’s comfort level with Augusta, and the fact that he has put in some good showings already this year, with his shoulder problems seemingly behind him, I like the number here.
Marley Sims
Sleeper pick: Si Woo Kim, +9,000. It’s a long shot, but he’s finished in the top 25 in three of six appearances at the Masters. An incredible golf talent.
Jonathan Wall
Sleeper pick: Sahith Theegala, +10,000. I’d expect Theegala will need a few strolls around Augusta to get a good handle on the subtle nuances. That being said, I love his game and think he’s the perfect Masters rookie to make some noise early in the week. With seven top-25 finishes in 14 Tour starts this season, he’s proving to be a constant presence on leaderboards. He’s the perfect dart throw.
Sean Zak
Sleeper pick: Patrick Reed +6,600. No one seems to play better when surrounded by angst, and that’s what LIV players will certainly feel this week. Angst. Reed thrives in that. I think he contends.
