Valspar Championship betting guide: 6 picks our gambling expert loves

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Valspar Championship which gets underway Thursday in Tampa, Fla. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

It was quite the week in Ponte Vedra Beach at the Players Championship. All seven of our selections made the cut and five of them cashed a top-20 finish for us. Most notably, J.J. Spaun nearly pulled off the huge win. Presented with the opportunity, yes, I did hedge my bet by playing Rory McIlroy to win the playoff. He has really been my kryptonite at the Players. In both of McIlroy’s Players victories, he has narrowly beaten my triple-digit odds selection. I was on runner-up finisher, Jim Furyk in 2019 at 125-1 and of course, last week with Spaun at 110-1. It is now off to Palm Harbor we go as the final stop on the Florida Swing has arrived.

There are no pushover golf courses on the Florida Swing and the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is no exception. Many of the winning scores here over the years at the Valspar Championship have been in the single digits under par. Interestingly, it does not really look like a Florida course. The fairways are narrow and tree-lined. Rather than flat, there is a considerable amount of elevation change and undulation to the layout. The grasses remain consistent however, as we once again have overseeded Bermudagrass this week. The Larry Packard design is a par 71 and now stretches to roughly 7,350 yards. There are five very difficult par 3s, each measuring 195 yards or more. There are also four Par 5s. Given this set-up, the majority of the approach shots this week are going to come from 175 to over 200+ yards out.

The winning score proposition bet, per Jeff Sherman at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, is under/over 269.5, meaning 14.5 under par.

Certainly, one of the most important elements to this week’s handicap is the weather. The first two days of the tournament look to be windy with it becoming very calm over the weekend. The way the forecast appears now is that the wind will pick up on Thursday afternoon and then begin to die down on Friday afternoon. This would make for the early-late draw having what appears to be a big advantage. Obviously, I have made my selections here but it is probably best to wait until the start times are released and the forecast has had more time to develop. As it stands right now, it looks like those who tee off late on Thursday and early on Friday are going to be at a distinct disadvantage.

With narrow fairways and a high level of difficulty off the tee, I looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this week along with Good Drives Gained. Approach play is huge this week too, so I have looked at SG: Approach and Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards. I also looked at success on Par 3s measuring 200-225 yards and Par 5s ranging from 550-600 yards. Finally, Scrambling and SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) also found their way into my dive into the numbers.

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There are quite a few courses this week that have ties to the Copperhead Course here in Palm Harbor. A narrow, dog-legged track brings to mind Colonial Country Club, home to the Charles Schwab Challenge. I also used TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude), Sedgefield (Wyndham), and Sea Island (RSM Classic). We have seen a lot of crossover success with Waialae in Honolulu and I also looked at TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic) and TPC River Highlands (Travelers).

I have played each of the following for both an outright win and a top-20 finish.

Tommy Fleetwood (12-1)

I am probably one of many who want to be there when this man wins for the first time on the PGA Tour. This week presents another golden opportunity in my mind, as he is the best player in this field. With favoritism comes expectation but the No. 9 player in the world has been around long enough that I don’t’ feel this is anything new. Fleetwood kicked off his season out west with finishes of 22nd and fifth. He comes off of two straight top-15 finishes in Florida with an 11th at Bay Hill and a 14th last week at Sawgrass. He’s been 16th and third here at the Valspar in two tries. Fleetwood has also finished third at TPC Southwind and has two top-15 finishes at TPC River Highlands. This could be the week for the Englishman.

Lucas Glover (40-1)

Glover was one of the first players I thought of this week — for not only his ball striking prowess but also how he did last week at the Players. Glover has now finished third at two Signature Events this season, Pebble Beach and Sawgrass. He’s been as high as fourth here at the Valspar and has wins on three of our correlated courses this week, TPC Southwind, TPC Deere Run, and Sedgefield. Over the last 36 rounds, Glover is No. 1 in this field for SG: Approach.

J.T. Poston (40-1)

We were on Poston last week and he came through with a top-20 finish for us. His putting, which has been uncharacteristically bad so far this season, finally turned last week in Ponte Vedra Beach — and we have the same surface here this week at Innisbrook. Like Glover, Poston is also a winner at the Wyndham Championship and also at the John Deere Classic. He’s been runner-up at the Travelers, and has top-10 finishes at Colonial, Sea Island, and here at the Valspar. Poston is very solid in this week’s stats. If the putter continues like it did last week, we’ll be in a good spot.

Ben Griffin (60-1)

Griffin hasn’t been around on Tour as long as our choices higher up the oddsboard, but in a short time, he has shown that these types of golf courses seem to fit his strengths. He has top-10 finishes at the Wyndham, John Deere and RSM Classic. Griffin finished 45th here at the Valspar on debut in 2023 and followed that with a 17th-place finish last year. He missed the cut last week and I like that as it gives him a bit of a break, having played every week on Tour in 2025, beginning with the Sony Open. Griffin already has three top-10 finishes this season and ranks No. 1 in this field on the Par 3s measuring 200-225 yards.

Stephan Jaeger (65-1)

A couple years in the making now, Jaeger is really beginning to emerge as a player to be reckoned with on the PGA Tour. He was in contention last week until falling off with a round of 75 on Sunday. He has two top-10 finishes already this season, including a third at the Sony Open — and that one catches my eye because Jaeger has always been known more as a bomber. For him to do so well at that type of course says something. His putting has seen massive improvement and has played a big role in his recent progress, now ranking 24th in this field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) over the last 36 rounds.

Andrew Putnam (150-1)

And for this week’s long bomb, we’ll go with another guy who can really putt. And it is not only the putting as Putnam has been playing some of the best golf of his career so far this season. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 20th in this field for SG: Approach, third for Good Drives Gained, sixth on the long Par 3s, 25th for Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards, and 10th in Greens in Regulation Gained. It is concerning that he is 0-for-4 here at the Valspar with four missed cuts but it is a bit odd as he has top-5, top-10, top-15, top-25, and top-30 finishes at all of the correlated courses and has also been 10th, fourth, and runner-up at the Sony Open at Waialae. 

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