Want more Players Championship heartache? The forecast is calling for it

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — Tommy Fleetwood chuckled at the thought. The Englishman had just walked off the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass after firing a six-under-par 66 in benign conditions at the 2025 Players Championship.

Is this the easiest you’ve seen this course play?

“Tough question,” Fleetwood said. “No, I don’t think so. I don’t think it’s playing that easy. It’s soft, isn’t it? That’s for sure. I still think the wind makes a huge difference. I think it’s going to continue to dry out, so I think definitely this morning we had the absolute best of conditions that you can hope for, and as Sawgrass goes from a scorability standpoint, this morning was for a stretch as good as you’re going to get it.”

Fleetwood was one of several players who blistered the Stadium Course during the early morning wave. Collin Morikawa shot seven under. Min Woo Lee, Akshay Bhatia and Harris English joined Fleetwood with 66s. Rory McIlroy, J.J. Spaun and Jake Knapp shot four under.

But while Pete Dye’s hazard-filled tortured chamber has been gettable through the first two days, the real challenge looms on the horizon.

The winds that often wreak havoc at TPC Sawgrass this time of year have yet to arrive. They touched 15 mph for a short time in Round 1 and maxed out at around 10 on Friday.

Moving day should be an entirely different beast, with winds projected to be between 15 and 25 mph and gusts up to 30.

“I’m looking forward to it,” said Rickie Fowler, who sits at five under. “Obviously, you can’t fake it, and definitely around this place, without wind, you can’t fake it, either. So it should be interesting. It will be a big test on just controlling the golf ball as well as emotions because you’re not going to go play perfect golf around this place in 30-mile-an-hour wind.”

“The wind we’re expecting to project the next two days is going to be one helluva challenge,” Billy Horschel said. “You always want it to be tough, but when you start getting wind conditions like that, quality golf shots don’t always turn out well. It’s one of those days of acceptance and understanding that you’re going to hit some good shots that turn out well and some bad shots that turn out in some really bad spots.”

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Two-time defending champion Scottie Scheffler will enter the weekend at six shots back of Lee and Bhatia. The increased winds and toughening conditions could aid Scheffler as he aims to reel in the leaders. But he also knows he has left himself no room for error. Even if the winds level those who sprinted to the top of the leaderboard, he’ll have to execute in a way he hasn’t over the first two days to mount a successful charge at a three-peat.

“It’s going to be pretty challenging this weekend,” Scheffler said after shooting two under Friday. “The golf course was definitely gettable the first two days. I wasn’t able to take advantage of it the way that I would have hoped to.

“The wind moves around a good amount out here. If you go to a course like where the Open Championships usually are, you could play the ball on the ground. Around this place, you can’t really. The fairways are fairly soft. You got to get the ball airborne, and so got to make sure you’re controlling your spin, hitting it really solid. At times it can feel like you’re guessing a little bit on the wind, and you hopefully guess right more often than you’re wrong.”

Horschel recalls the brutal conditions at the 2022 Players, where winds sat between 20-25 mph with 40 mph gusts, forcing him to hit driver-3 wood into the par-4 18th, and the winds wiped out a number of players at the famed 17th hole.

“Tomorrow, if it’s anything similar to what we played in [2022], it’s going to be very, very tough,” Horschel said.

Those winds were coming from the north-northwest. They should come from the southeast on Saturday, which should make it more manageable.

Still, those who took advantage of tamer conditions are preparing for a different course this weekend.

“It will be tough,” said Lee, who posted 67-66 over the first two days. “We got the text message yesterday from the Tour saying that they’re going to adjust the course to it. It’s a tough course even without wind, and it’s intimidating.”

The increased challenge should help clear out a crowded leaderboard, serving as a separator at a course known for tormenting those whose game is even slightly off.

“I’m looking forward to it,” McIlroy said. “I think it’s going to be really important to try to flight your ball and keep it under the tree line. I think once it gets above the tree line here, it can start to really get hit by it. It does swirl a little bit, but I think when the wind is so strong, it will be a little more consistent. But this course is challenging enough, but with a wind like that, yeah, I’m excited for that challenge.”

Through 36 holes, receptive greens and pleasant weather have taken a lot of the bite out of TPC Sawgrass.

A new reality should arrive over the weekend, with the wind awakening a Pete Dye creation that’s ready to hit back.