Collin Morikawa hits a shot during a practice round prior to the start of the men's Olympic Golf competition.
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Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the men’s Olympic Golf competition, which gets underway Thursday outside of Paris, France. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.
The FedExCup Playoffs are only two weeks away, but the 2024 golf season has one more major-type event up its sleeve to keep us plenty engaged, and that is the chase for Olympic gold this week in Paris, France.
Golf in the Olympics first existed over 100 years ago but it was only 2016 in Rio de Janeiro when we saw it first reinserted back into the lineup. England’s Justin Rose took gold that year. Henrik Stenson won the silver medal and Matt Kuchar got the bronze.
At the 2020 Games in Tokyo (actually played in 2021), Xander Schauffele won the gold medal and Rory Sabbatini took the silver. Part of a seven-player playoff, C.T. Pan won bronze.
Here we are in 2024 at Le Golf National, an excellent course less than 20-miles outside of Paris that has been the host course of the DP World Tour event, the Open de France, since 1991. The golf course also hosted the Ryder Cup in 2018. Specifically, it is the Albatros Course at Le Golf National. It is a shorter course at less than 7,200 yards and plays to a par 71 with three par-5s and 11 par-4s. The fairways are narrow and undulated, the rough is thick and the bentgrass greens are larger than average and also feature a lot of undulation.
With the amount of water hazards, sand bunkers, undulation and with the European setting, the course looks quite a bit like a mix between a Florida track and a Euro links design. I did use one Florida course and one European links design in my comp courses this week, that being Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational) and Royal Troon (2024 Open Championship). This course does not have the length of Bay Hill but the emphasis on Driving Accuracy and Bogey Avoidance along with the thick rough and large greens all matches up. With Royal Troon, we can also note the similarities for Driving Accuracy and the undulated fairways. Bogey Avoidance remains true as does the need for successful Scrambling.
In addition to Driving Accuracy, Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance, I also looked at Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass), Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Total (Shorter Courses), Hole Proximity from 100-175 yards, and par-4s measuring 350-450 yards. In addition to Bay Hill and Royal Troon, I also considered TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic), East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship) and TPC Scottsdale (WM Phoenix Open) as comparable courses.
Before we dive into this week’s selections, I should point out that there is no 36-hole cut at this event. The field is made up of 60 players playing all four rounds. First place, second and third will win gold, silver and bronze, respectively. If any of the medal places are tied after 72 holes, there will be a playoff.
I have played the following five players for an outright win — or gold medal — but there is a market for a podium finish, meaning betting on a player to medal. There are also the traditional finishing position markets; top-5, top-10, top-20, etc.
Collin Morikawa (11-1)
I feel like this golf tournament is a little bit different from a standard Tour event, a Signature Event, or a major championship. It is different when representing your country. It is different playing for a gold medal versus a green jacket. Having won six tournaments this season, including the Masters, will Scottie Scheffler be hell-bent on winning gold? Already having won gold and having won two majors this season, will Xander Schauffele be chomping at the bit for more? Certainly they both very well could be but I feel like there might be hungrier players out there in this field, hungrier specifically for Olympic glory, and one of which is Morikawam, who also happens to be a great fit for this golf course. Morikawa has flirted with victory seven times this season but is yet to cash in. He’s been on the heels of both Scheffler and Schauffele multiple times. He has not finished worse than 16th in his last eight starts. He has finished 3-4-14-16 in the four major championships this season. This feels like his last shot at slaying the grand prize on a global stage and he has voiced his desire and determination to get back to winning “major” golf tournaments. Having come so close so many times this year, Morikawa gets one more chance to make a mammoth splash and I believe he’s buying in. We spoke about narrow fairways and the statistical needs at this golf course. Morikawa ranks top five in this field over the last 24 rounds for Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, Good Drives Gained and on the par-4s measuring 350-450 yards. He’s also 13th in Scrambling, ninth in SG: Putting (Bentgrass) and second for SG: Total on courses measuring less than 7,200 yards. For me, he checks out statistically, mentally and comes here in good form. Now we wait to see if manifests.
Jon Rahm (12-1)
I am still seeing some 11s on Rahm but I have also seen odds lower than 9-1 pop up in response to the Spaniard’s win last Sunday at LIV UK. Anything 10-1 or better is a nice number in my opinion. I played Rahm in-game a couple of different times last week at the LIV event in England and then again immediately after the win, to win again here in Paris. It has been a grind for Rahm this season. The transition to the LIV environment has not been easy. He’s finished top 10 in every event without a win until last Sunday. His performance in the majors had been very disappointing until finally putting together a strong showing at Royal Troon. I liked what I saw out of him at the Open Championship, finishing seventh, and then he was brought to tears by the win last week. I believe he has turned a corner and like Morikawa, Rahm now has one more chance to beat “the rest of the world” on a huge stage, proving that he is still very much “Jon Rahm” and despite playing on a different circuit, he hasn’t gone anywhere. Rahm finished 10th here at the Open de France in 2017, fifth in 2018 and beat Tiger Woods in singles at the 2018 Ryder Cup. I like the fact that he has experience and success at this golf course, I like his current form and his frame of mind. He also has an incredible history at TPC Scottsdale.
Shane Lowry (27-1)
A similar theme here with Lowry. A guy that has come up just short this season and in recent weeks. A full-of-pride countryman who would absolutely love to win a gold medal for Ireland. He did it at Royal Portrush in 2019, winning the Open Championship on his home soil. He was the flag bearer for Ireland at the opening ceremonies last week and spoke openly about how much it meant to him. This guy can taste it and I expect his golf game to follow suit. Lowry has to feel like he left something on the table two weeks ago at The Open after being the 36-hole leader and ultimately finishing sixth after the weather helped dash his hopes in the third round. He has experience at this golf course, finishing 16th here in 2018. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks top 10 in this field for Bogey Avoidance, Good Drives Gained, par-4s from 350-400 and Hole Proximity from 125-150. Not only is Lowry one of the world’s best links players, but the Florida swing has typically been where he’s at his best as well. He finished third at Bay Hill earlier this season. In addition to the outright win, maybe this is one worth a try for a podium finish or a top-10 finish play too.
Corey Conners (37-1)
I believe this is another example of country pride possibly being in play. Canada will be on the world stage this fall for the President’s Cup and Conners will almost certainly be a part of that team – but a gold medal wouldn’t hurt his chances either. For a guy that has had a number of top-10 finishes in major championships, winning gold would be incredible. As I alluded to earlier, I feel this medal carries something different in terms of an accomplishment, and maybe it resonates even more with the international players than it does with the Americans. Like Lowry, this might be another one to add a finish position play to the outright win wager. Conners’ European links game has been improving quite a bit in a short period of time. He hasn’t missed a cut at the Open Championship in four straight years and just finished 25th at Royal Troon. He hasn’t missed a cut at the Scottish Open in three straight tries and finished 19th and 10th in the last two editions. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks top six in this field for SG: Approach, Driving Accuracy, par-4s from 400-450 yards and Hole Proximity from 125-150.
Thomas Detry (70-1)
Nobody in this Olympic field has more experience on this golf course than Detry, who is representing Belgium. As a former full-time member on the DP World Tour, Detry has played 18 tournament rounds of golf here at the Open de France. He’s made the cut in four out of five tries and has finishes of 25-16-8-35. He’s especially good on the par-4s and in Hole Proximity from 125-175 yards. He ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting. I like the current form as well. Beginning with the PGA Championship, where he finished fourth, he hasn’t missed a cut in his last six starts, including a 14th-place finish at the U.S. Open. In his last start at the Scottish Open, he shot four rounds in the 60s and finished 26th. He’s absolutely a quality player that has sniffed the winner’s circle at big events. I feel like 70-1 is a fair price and I’ve seen a few ticks higher. This is one where I too might add a top-20 finish play.
