1 reason why all 12 Open Championship contenders could win
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is lurking two shots back of the lead heading into Open Championship Sunday.
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TROON, Scotland — Scottie Scheffler’s ability to make golf look easy is making him a very rich man.
But on Saturday at the Open Championship, not even he could avoid the truth: The Golf was freaking hard.
“I think that was probably the hardest nine holes that I’ll ever play,” he said on Saturday evening, after rain and a gale-force wind nearly flipped golf’s final major championship on its head. “I shouldn’t say ever, but it’s definitely the hardest that I’ve played to this point.”
Scheffler was not alone in his critique. The typically chipper Justin Rose admitted he was famished, dehydrated and mostly miserable by the time he reached the press room on Saturday evening. It had been raining and blowing so hard out on the course that he hadn’t had time to stop for water or food.
“It turned into an absolute survival test out there,” Rose said. “I think I did a good job of surviving.”
The tagline for this year’s Open Championship — Forged By Nature — will find its way into nearly every story written from Saturday at the Open, and for good reason. On Saturday morning, the golf world woke with the possibility of a runaway 54-hole leader for the second straight year, with Shane Lowry’s two-shot edge appearing to have no end in sight. When the first groups went off into a tame, dry, scoring bonanza, Lowry’s lead-building third-round seemed all but assured. But then the rain blew in, and a wind stronger than anyone predicted arrived from a Northwest direction nobody predicted, and suddenly Moving Day had turned into a heavyweight bout.
By the time it was over, 36 holes of stratification on the Open Championship leaderboard had been erased, a grand re-bunching of the contenders that suddenly included a brand-new list of people. People like Sam Burns, who has not been shown for more than 15 seconds on the television broadcast throughout the weekend because his inflated scores on Thursday and Friday deemed him out of contention, but will play in the penultimate pairing on Sunday.
Lowry, who said he didn’t feel like he had three bad shots all day, shot six over. He will tee off on Sunday with Adam Scott, who started the day a dozen shots back of Lowry and said he didn’t feel like he swung it all that well.
This is what Forged By Nature really means: Nature decides. On Saturday, it brought the bottom of the field much closer to the top. And with that in mind, let’s go through all 13 players who will rise on Sunday morning, either by grit or good fortune, with a chance at the Claret Jug.
1 winning reason for all 12 Open Championship contenders
1. Shane Lowry (-1): He’s the most prepared.
Lowry showed up on a scouting mission at Royal Troon last week and played it in similarly miserable conditions to Saturday. He showed up at Royal Troon this week and looked like the preordained choice to deliver a second major victory, his game appearing tailor-made for the linksland and unbothered by the conditions.
He limped down the back nine on Saturday in the worst of the weather to put himself a handful of shots back of the lead, but his game never looked that bad. On a leveler playing field on Sunday, all that prep work could shine in one of the biggest moments of his life.
2. Billy Horschel (-4): He’s the leader.
A 54-hole lead at a major is a 54-hole lead at a major. Billy Ho’s absolute masochist approach to Saturday’s carnage — which might be the best two-under score of his life — put him in prime position. After what he’s been through over the last few months in pro golf, he’s ready for the challenge.
3. Xander Schauffele (-3): Major wins come in bunches.
Xander and Tiger Woods shared a moment at the beginning of this week that Xander described as “welcome to the club” — meaning, the club of major championship winners. That was a monkey on Schauffele’s back for a long time, particularly as the top-10s at major championships continued to stack up.
Now, though, he’s conquered the dragon, and he’s staring down a wide-open Sunday field at the Open. We’ve seen players win in bunches before at the majors, and with how well he’s navigated the course this week, Xander going from zero to two in a year feels very much in the realm of possibility.
4. Sam Burns (-3): He’s got nothing to lose.
Sam Burns was five over through nine holes when he made the turn on Thursday afternoon at Royal Troon — otherwise known as “game over” territory. After an early 65 to vault to three under for the tournament, he wakes up Sunday morning in the penultimate pairing at the Open Championship. With his considerable arsenal of ball-striking firepower, he’s another mid-60s number away from his first major championship, the one that so many of the people who’ve been around his game say is absolutely in the cards. After the way his week started, we’d be surprised if it happens on Sunday, but not shocked.
5. Justin Rose (-3): He’s *earned* this.
Justin Rose’s career renaissance has been one of golf’s most quietly thrilling stories over the last 12 months. Rosey snuck onto the European Ryder Cup team and seemed he would will them to a victory by sheer force of spirit, but the T6 that followed at the PGA Championship was proof it wasn’t a fluke.
He’s at the age where he needs things to break his way in order to contend, but his performance in Saturday’s washout to stay in contention was nothing shy of crafty brilliance. He’s right there, and after a career that has featured so many near-misses, maybe Sunday is the day he needs to ride off into the sunset.
6. Dan Brown (-3): He’s the underdog!
Scoreboard watchers will see a name they’re unfamiliar with carded a round-ending double-bogey to fall out of the final pairing and assume he’s beginning a long journey away from contention.
Those who have watched Dan Brown this week know that’s not the case. He was gritty and gutsy and savvy and smart and all the other things a player needs to be to contend on Sunday at a major. If he was going to fall out of the hunt, he would’ve done it on Saturday. I don’t anticipate that happening on Sunday.
7. Matthew Jordan (E): We’ve forgotten about him!
A year ago, Matthew Jordan was the hometown darling from the Wirral Peninsula gunning for major championship glory at his home club, Royal Liverpool. He was the darling of Open week, and the considerable crowd favorite.
This year, he is none of those things, and in some ways that seems to be helping him. Unlike many of the other names on this list, Jordan did not vault into contention after one good round. He has quietly pieced together three rock-solid rounds to get him to level-par. The links style of golf seems to agree with him, and players like that always wind up hanging around contention on Sunday.
8. Justin Thomas (E): If not for that god-forsaken front-nine on Friday!!!!
If Justin Thomas had carded a ho-hum, nothing-interesting, even-par front-nine score of 35 on Friday morning he would currently be leading the Open by six shots. Instead, he shot forty-five on the front, and needed every bit of a Saturday 67 to push his 54-hole score back to even par.
He has the major championship pedigree, he has the craftiness and toolsiness, he has five brilliant nines on this golf course this week already. Two more on Sunday and he could be one of the most fascinating out-of-nowhere winners in major championship history … again!
9. Adam Scott (E): Recent form is on his side.
Like, very recent form.
Last week at the Scottish Open, Scotty shot a glimmering final-round 67 to fall one shot short of hometown hero Bob MacIntyre. He talked afterward about how fun it was to hit putts that mattered. It was a solo second-place finish instead of a victory, sure, but it said everything about his mental and competitive space right now. After a surprise Saturday, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him make a move up the leaderboard.
10. Scottie Scheffler (-2): He’s Scottie freakin’ Scheffler
He has been the best golfer on the planet for the last two years. He hasn’t made a single putt to save his ever-loving life this week. And he’s still only two shots back of the lead heading into Sunday at the final major of the year.
If you don’t think every other player on this list is going to bed with one eye open tonight dreaming about Scottie, well, you don’t really know what’s coming.
11. Thirston Lawrence (-3): He very quietly played the round of the day on Saturday.
Lawrence carded a six-under 65 on Saturday just as the conditions started to turn. He’s got the beefy-boy build and plenty of shot-making ability. If the wind takes another turn, he could suddenly be in the driver’s seat in the final pairing.
12. Russell Henley (-3): He’s *always* lurking.
In what is only a testament to his ability, no player has ever more quietly become the 20th-best golfer in the world than Russell Henley. Henley is a shot-maker, he’s got an awesome short-game, and if the wind nullifies some of the rest of the field’s advantage off the tee, he could mark a second straight surprise winner at the Open. Remember, this tournament more than any other is won by the short hitters.
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