2024 Open Championship sleeper picks to watch: Here’s who might break out 

Todd Hamilton says people bet on him to win the Open Championship 20 years ago. He says he even knows the number. 

Five. 

The anecdote comes courtesy of a GOLF.com article published in 2016, the last time Royal Troon hosted an Open before this week, and the folks who did back Hamilton were rewarded. He won, in a playoff over Ernie Els. But why hadn’t others jumped on board? Like maybe six people? 

Another article published in 2016, this one written by Golfweek’s Jim McCabe, spells it out well. Hamilton, McCabe wrote:

— Had 500-1 odds 

— Was playing “terrible,” according to his caddie, Ron “Bambi” Levin. (McCabe wrote that another caddie had told Levin that they’d also bet on Hamilton — to finish last.) 

— Arrived Tuesday and played Troon only on Wednesday 

Before that week, Hamilton had also won only one time on the PGA Tour, the victory coming in mid-March of that year, at the Honda Classic. But then he shot rounds of 71, 67, 67 and 67 and made four pars in the playoff, and Hamilton was a major winner.  

And five people cashed.

Others could this year, too, while betting on underdogs when the Open’s latest edition starts Thursday. There are, of course, a number of players with 500-1 odds or higher.   

Including Hamilton. 

With that, members of our staff have each picked a long shot. The hope is, of course, we help you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook.

On to our picks.

2024 Open Championship sleeper picks to watch

Ryan Barath

Sleeper pick: Nick Taylor, +35,000. I realize that my colleagues are going to call this a simple pro-Canadian pick, but his stats align well for links golf. He strikes his irons well and is positive strokes gained around and on the greens. It’s a recipe for links golf success, and with that in mind, I’m happy to call him my sleeper.

James Colgan 

Sleeper pick: Sahith Theegala, +6,600: Strange that a guy who’s been right in the mix at a few majors over the past 12 months would be so far down the betting cards. Sure, his game gets a little topsy-turvy, which generally doesn’t jive with the Open, but he played one of the best rounds of his year on Friday at Hoylake last year, and he played really well at the Scottish. I like him a lot.

Dylan Dethier   

Sleeper pick: Matthew Jordan, +25,000. His T10 finish at Royal Liverpool last year was noteworthy because he was the hometown kid. But he’s also got a game built and maintained on the seaside links. If he putts reasonably well, he could finish in the top 20 or better.

Nick Dimengo    

Sleeper pick: Jason Day, +10,000. The former No. 1 player in the world has had a pretty good year, finding himself in the T10 on four occasions. With a runner-up finish at last year’s Open Championship (along with a T22 at Royal Troon in 2016), something’s just telling me that Day could find himself hoisting the Claret Jug at the end of this thing.

Connor Federico  

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +17,500. The newly named U.S. Ryder Cup captain told us this week he wants to make the 2025 team as a player, but wouldn’t pick himself. That means he’d have to qualify for the team on points, and there’s no better place to earn those than at major championships. Can Bradley parlay the excitement from his announcement into a big win at Royal Troon? He’s still a Top 20 player in the world, and there aren’t many pros better at using emotion to fuel on-course success.  

Jack Hirsh 

Sleeper pick:  Sahith Theegala, +6,600. I think he’s been my sleeper in all four majors. The only real deficiency in his game is his play around the greens, but I think links golf can sort of neutralize that given how different the short game is in the UK. Otherwise, his creativity and shot making make an excellent fit for links golf.

Lifestyle

Zephyr Melton 

Sleeper pick: Mathieu Pavon, +10,000. It’s been a breakout year for the Frenchman, as he’s earned his first career Tour victory and contended at the U.S. Open. Back on European soil, he may have a little more magic in him.

Nick Piastowski 

Sleeper pick: Tom Hoge, +20,000. He’s second this year on the PGA Tour is Strokes Gained: Approach. I like that. 

Josh Sens

Sleeper pick: Tom Hoge, +20,000. I like Nick’s thinking. Iron play will be key. 

Jonathan Wall 

Sleeper pick: Justin Rose, +10,000. From a Strokes Gained standpoint, no one has putted better than Rose in the majors going back to 2019. His recent track record on golf’s biggest stage — four missed cuts in five major starts — makes him a questionable selection. But I like the fact that he qualified for this year’s Open and has a strong track record on links-style setups.