Open Championship projected cut: Big names could be headed home early at Hoylake

It’s only Friday at the Open Championship, but for some players, their major season will end today. With the cut coming at the conclusion of the second round, much of the field will pack their bags at day’s end.

At the Open Championship, the top 70 and ties will qualify for the weekend. This cut is a bit more generous than the other major championships with the Masters only taking the top 50 and ties, while the U.S. Open takes the top 60 and ties. The PGA Championship also takes the top 70 and ties.

As of 1: 30 p.m. ET, the cut line at Royal Liverpool sits at three over with 77 players inside that magic number.

According to the stats guys at Data Golf, it is a near certainty that the three-over number holds through the end of the day. According to their models, there is a 99% chance the cut remains at three over through the end of the day.

With the cut almost certainly coming at three over, we can begin to forecast which stars will (and won’t) be around for the weekend.

Sam Burns, Bryson DeChambeau and Padraig Harrington are all inside the cut line as of now at three over, and as long as the models prove to be true, they will stick around for the weekend.

Among those in serious danger of missing the cut include Keegan Bradley and Collin Morikawa, who each posted four over and are likely packing their bags for an early trip home.

Dustin Johnson (+13), John Daly (+12), Justin Thomas (+11), Phil Mickelson (+9) and Tony Finau (+6) will all miss the weekend having finished their second rounds outside the projected cut line.

Continue checking this post throughout the day for updates on the projected cut line.