Butterfield Bermuda Championship picks: 4 bets our expert loves this week

Rory McIlroy, winner of last week’s CJ Cup and newly anointed world No. 1, says he’d like the Tour to do away with its wrap-around season. But while changes are in store for the fall calendar, there’s no break in the calendar for now.

Next up is the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, at Port Royal Golf Course, and McIlroy will not be in the mix. But 56-year-old, white-bearded John Daly will be air dropping into an island setting where he risks being mistaken for a tropical Santa. Robert Garrigus will be on hand, too, having recently made headlines not for his play but for calling Billy Horschel a dirty word.

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You can see where this is headed.

When Denny McCarthy is the odds-favorite, TV-audience records are safe.

But what the Butterfield may lack in Q Score, it makes up for in opportunities for bettors. With lesser fields, sleepers abound.

To help identify them, we turn to Andy Lack. GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator is a data analyst for Odds Checker and RickRunGood.com, and co-host of The Scramble, a twice-weekly handicapping show. He knows his numbers, and he has given us his four favorite picks.

Because we like to know what the public is thinking, too, we’re also including data from Chirp, a free-to-play mobile platform (and GOLF.com affiliate) that gives fans all kinds of ways to engage with the action.

Bermuda operates on Atlantic Daylight Time, which is one hour ahead of Eastern Standard Time, so set your clocks — and make your picks — accordingly.

Andy Lack’s Expert Picks

Outright Pick to win: Adam Schenk (+5600)

(Odds available on Bet365)

Schenk has been on my radar for quite some time now given the upside he possesses with his irons. The 30-year-old ranks third in this field in strokes gained approach, and in his last seven starts, he’s gained over five strokes on approach on three separate occasions. Coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes at the Shriners Hospital for Children Open and the Zozo Championship, Schenk should be brimming with confidence as he returns to a course that he finished 26th at last year. A seventh-place finish at the Corales Punta Cana, and a 14th at the Puerto Rico Open point to a player who is extremely comfortable on coastal tracks with slower greens. I expect Schenk to break through with first PGA Tour victory in Bermuda. 

Top 10: Chesson Hadley (+550)

(Odds available on DraftKings)

I was surprised to see Hadley rate out so well for me from a statistical standpoint, but the former Puerto Rico Open champion has been quietly playing solid golf. The 35-year-old is coming off a 37th-place finish at the Shriners Hospital for Children Open where he gained three strokes on approach and 4.8 strokes putting. His iron play deserves serious praise, as Hadley ranks as the No. 2 approach player over his last 36 rounds. Even more encouraging is the fact that he has been the No. 3 putter in this field on slow, Bermuda-grass greens. With a 16th-place finish here in 2020, a win at the Puerto Rico Open, and multiple top-20 finishes at Pebble Beach, Hadley also seems to do his best work on short, wedge-heavy, coastal courses. 

Top 40: Ben Griffin (+195)

(Odds available on FanDuel)

While the sample size is limited, Griffin jumps off the page statistically. Though he has only five PGA Tour starts to his name, the 26-year-old has already recorded a top-five finish at the Wyndham Championship, another short, wedge-heavy Bermuda course, where he gained 3.6 strokes on approach and 3.6 strokes putting. The University of North Carolina product showed more signs of promise with a 24th-place finish at the Sanderson Farms, where he gained a whopping 6.2 strokes on approach. When attempting to identify young talent, I always look closely at iron play, as it remains the most important and translatable skill set at the PGA Tour level. Griffin has already shown that this is a major strength of his game, and I expect him to shine this week in Bermuda. 

Matchup: Patrick Rodgers (-120) over Greyson Sigg

While the outright win number feels a bit short in the betting market, I believe that there’s excellent value this week on Patrick Rodgers. The former Stanford standout is coming off a rock-solid 16th at the Zozo, and he now travels to a course that he finished fourth at last year. The 30-year-old ranks as the No. 5 putter in this field on slow Bermuda-grass greens, and he has already experienced loads of success on other coastal courses such as Pebble Beach, Vidanta Vallarta, and Sea Island. Greyson Sigg, on the other hand, is a player I have far less faith in. The 27-year-old is coming off a 44th at the Shriners Hospital for Children Open where he lost 3.3 strokes on approach, and he has failed to gain over a stroke on approach in his last six starts. Sigg is worse off the tee, in poor approach form, and a far less trustable putter. This is an easy one. 

Chirp Data

The Trifecta game, on Chirp, calls for fans to pick three winners: a favorite, a contender and a long shot, all categories based on the Official World Golf Ranking. Hundreds have Chirp users have already made their plays this week. Here’s a look at the top vote getters in each category, along with the percentage of support that they’ve received, listed in parentheses. To get in on the fun, sign up to Chirp for free here.

Favorite

Seamus Power (35.90)

Seonghyeon Kim (14.10)

Denny McCarthy (13.68)

Contender

Brandon Wu (24.79)

Patrick Rodgers (17.09)

Greyson Sigg (12.82)

Long Shot

Michael Kim (24.36)

Kevin Tway (15.38)

Ben Martin (10.26)