Zurich Classic betting guide: 4 picks our expert loves at TPC Louisiana
Keith Mitchell, pictured, will partner with Sungjae Im at the Zurich Classic this week.
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Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is the host of the HeatStrokes podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read below to see his favorite plays for the Zurich Classic, which kicks off Thursday at TPC Louisiana, in Avondale, La. Keep scrolling past Kannon’s picks, and you’ll also see data from Chirp, a free-to-play mobile platform — and GOLF.com affiliate — that features a range of games with enticing prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to engage in the action without risking any money.
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Laissez les bons temps rouler!
That’s not French for Let’s play team golf matches. But it might as well be as we head to New Orleans for the Zurich Classic.
Born as a traditional stroke-play event, the Zurich was converted to a two-person team competition in 2017. There are 160 players in the field this week, which — if I’ve got my grade-school match correct — means 80 two-man teams. As a stroke-play event, this tournament’s appeal had been waning. But the team format has given it pizzaz, elevating fan and player interest. It gives the players a break from the weekly routine and allows them to team up with friends, college mates, and countrymen. There is a lot on the line in the way of FedExCup points, major championship exemptions, and, of course, cash, so the competition remains stiff while the camaraderie of a dual effort makes it extra fun.
TPC Louisiana is a 7,425-yard, par-72 course in Avondale, about 25 minutes from New Orleans. It is a Pete Dye design but not like the Dye design we saw last week at Harbour Town. Yes, it also calls for positioning one’s shots. But this course can more easily be had — despite water hazards on nearly half the holes and more than 70 sand bunkers dotting the layout. Last year’s winning team of Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay rang up TPC Louisiana to the tune of 29 under par.
The handicap is much more challenging this week, which is why I have dumbed-down my risk and number plays. Week to week on the PGA Tour, we are trying to isolate one golfer or one type of player who fits that week’s course. Course history, course form — all of that comes into the handicap, along with the associated data. But this week we are looking at two players per team with individual skill sets. From a handicapping standpoint, we are trying to bet on or against them as one entity. That’s hard. If you pair up the Eagles and the Steelers to face the Bills and the Ravens, how do we assign a power rating to the newly formed singular unit? And that may be even easier than trying to do so with an individual-player sport such as golf.
On Thursday and Saturday, the teams will play a best-ball format, where each player plays their own ball and the lower of the two scores is recorded as the team score. On Friday and Sunday, teams will play alternate shot to record a single score.
The stats I looked at this week were more general and less specific. I want players who are solid off the tee, reliable on approaches, can putt well and who can make birdies. Considering the alternate-shot stages, I want players who set up their partner with good positions, good angles or easier shots. When I first glanced at the field, I looked for teams that tended to be complimentary. I like pairing an excellent ball striker with a player who has a strong short game. Again, it is general, but you have to figure on wanting a team that is strong as a whole and not overly rooted in just one area of the test.
This under-the-radar duo is our long-shot pick to win: 2023 Zurich Classic odds
Adding more difficulty to the handicap, the best-ball stages don’t necessarily abide by the team element. Sure, there are partner situations where they can aid one another but this is basically two individuals playing golf who just happen to be a team. Also, with the team factor, there is less room for blow-up holes, especially in the best-ball rounds. One player could make a double bogey but unlike a regular Tour event, that score won’t count if his teammate makes, say, a birdie. Only that number shows up on the card and not the double-bogey. So while a team may struggle overall this week, there is much less room for a two-person team recording a big number on a hole. From a betting standpoint, I believe this brings some of the long shots more into play.
I trust this helps one understand why we are playing more conservatively this week with our wagers. Every tournament is tough to land on winners, but this team format makes it more difficult to pinpoint one entity that should have success because in this case, that entity is a dynamic.
Picks to win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans (and to finish Top 20)
Sungjae Im & Keith Mitchell (14-1)
These are two of the class players in the entire field and they happen to be paired. Im really does everything well, and Mitchell is one of the best drivers in the game. Im ranks second in this field over the last 36 rounds for Birdies or Better Gained, fifth for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, and 17th for SG Approach. Mitchell is third for SG Off the Tee, 24th for Greens in Regulation Gained and 22nd on par-4s measuring 450-500 yards. We’re not going all the way to the top of the board where the single-digit prices reside, but I feel we are getting one of the best squads at a reasonable price.
Kurt Kitayama & Taylor Montgomery (25-1)
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