We simulated the 2020 Masters using hard data. Here’s how the wild week unfolded

The second-round 76 by Hatton was far from the only ejection from top of the leaderboard. Griffin succumbed to some rookie struggles, undoing his Thursday 68 (and then some) with a Friday 79, putting himself in danger of missing the cut. But as more second-round scores rolled in, it became clear that Augusta was angry. Justin Thomas made triple bogey on the par-5 15th en route to a 76. Jason Day and Danny Willett followed with a 76 and 78, respectively. Only three players shot under par in both rounds: Westwood, newcomer Nick Taylor (-3) and 2013 champion Adam Scott (-2).

With the 36-hole lead all but set at five under, the talk of the afternoon surrounded the cut line. Did reigning champion Tiger Woods have enough in him to make the weekend? After being sidelined for more than a month with back stiffness, Woods made it clear to the press he just couldn’t resist an opportunity to defend his 15th major. But while he may have made an appearance, his all-world ball-striking did not make the trip up from Jupiter. Tiger made just two birdies in an opening 74, and somehow one fewer in the second round. As we’ve come to understand, sometimes it’s there and sometimes it’s not. Woods was just off this week, and that was never more apparent than when he yanked an 8-iron short and into the bunker on 16, leading to a double bogey.

After a second-straight 74, Woods’ placement on the weekend relied on the finish of Bubba Watson, who reached five under with a birdie on 16. But Watson missed birdie putts inside 8 feet on both 17 and 18, enacting the local 10-shot rule, keeping many hopefuls around for the final two rounds. Koepka and his 149 strokes were spared while Marc Leishman, Justin Rose, Collin Morikawa and fan-favorite Fred Couples were all sent home, missing the cut by one shot each (+6).

A plurality of the Augusta National patrons spent the early part of their day tracking Tiger Woods, per usual, but the remaining lot was largely focused on pre-tournament favorite Rory McIlroy. In what has become custom for McIlroy, his pre-tournament press conference convinced much of the media and fans that this would be the year he claimed the green jacket, and the career grand slam in the process.

For a few moments Saturday, that seemed like it could come true. McIlroy birdied holes 2, 4, 6 and 8 to get within two shots of the lead. His firepower had brought him into the mix! A solid finish would place him squarely in contention entering the final day — but that’s where Augusta tricks you. It’s easy to gaze ahead to the back nine’s gettable par-5s and start to think about 67. Well, two of the most famous water hazards in the world foiled McIlroy. His approach into 13 didn’t draw as much as he’d hoped, landing in the creek on the fly. Then on 15, a red-ass drive left him with just a mid-iron in hand, which he flew one pace too short. He made bogey there plus another on 18 and signed for a disappointing 72.

Those who followed McIlroy likely missed out on the real fireworks of the day, from the pair three groups ahead. Englishman Tommy Fleetwood, who began the day a full two hours ahead of the final pairing, shot a ho-hum 35 on his front nine. He quickly made birdie from 15 feet on 10 and added a standard two-putt bird on 13. It was a much different scene than Saturday afternoon of 2019, when Fleetwood flipped off the 13th hole after a 3-putt.

As one of the best players in the world without a major championship, Fleetwood in contention provided plenty of fodder for English broadcaster Nick Faldo, who floated the idea of adding a “Sir” to Fleetwood’s name. Fleetwood made No. 14 look easy, hitting the middle of the 14th fairway and flagging his approach. Then he found the left edge of the 15th green in two, setting up the biggest roar of the entire week when he somehow made the 74-foot putt for eagle. Birdie-birdie-eagle vaulted him into a tie with Rahm at 6 under, which is exactly where both would finish their rounds.

Saturday afternoon saw a steady decline from Westwood, who made it clear that he would not be winning the 2020 Masters. His bogey-bogey finish pushed him four clear of Rahm and Fleetwood and into a much earlier tee time Sunday. Sergio Garcia, meanwhile, showed that he still possesses some Augusta magic. He made eagle on the 8th hole — later joking that he’d name his next child Yellow Jasmine — en route to a third-round 70. At 3 under for the week, a second green jacket was certainly plausible. On Sunday, he’d be chasing after his countryman Rahm from three groups ahead.

A pair of 68s from Schauffele and Sung Kang placed them in the penultimate group for the final round. It was a familiar situation for Schauffele, but less so for Kang, who was trying to become the first first-timer to win at Augusta National since Fuzzy Zoeller did so in 1979.

Unfortunately for McIlroy, his day sputtered again on the 15th hole, where par sealed his fate. On to 2021.

Johnson, meanwhile, followed his own personal history of Masters letdowns, making par-par-par coming in when another birdie may have crowned him. He posted one helluva score — a final-round record of 63 — and nonchalantly called the round “really good” in front of the media.

Other final-group contenders faded on Sunday. Watson, Kang and Fleetwood, playing in the final three times but never seriously threatened on Sunday. In the end, the tournament was left to their playing partners: Rahm, Scott and Schauffele.

Scott made an unlikely birdie at No. 11, but gave it back with a bogey at 12 and was undone with a devastating bogey at 13. Despite a strong response — he birdied 14, 15 and 17 — the former Masters champ finished one shot shy of Johnson’s clubhouse lead.

Schauffele’s efforts came up officially short through the back nine’s crucial middle stretch, going 5-5-5 on 13-14-15, easily giving up two shots to the field. He would finish birdie-bogey at 17-18 to post 7 under, a shot behind Scott.

It was Rahm who stayed mistake-free down the stretch. Johnson’s seismic 63 had come from several groups ahead, which meant Rahm had a very specific target to shoot for. He didn’t crack. His back-nine 35 featured just one birdie — at 13 — but not a single bogey.

Their back-nine scorecards:

Scott:               4-3-4-6-3-4-3-3-4 — 34 (-8)

Schauffele: 4-4-3-5-5-5-3-3-5 — 37 (-7)

Rahm:            4-4-3-4-4-5-3-4-4 — 35 (-10)

This was Jon Rahm’s year! The Spaniard finished off his win with five pars in a row, including clutch 4s at 17 and 18 with the tournament on the line. Rahm had actually bettered 10 under at Augusta before, but this week it was enough to claim his first major championship — by a single shot. “A sixth for Spain!” Jim Nantz bellowed as Rahm rolled in the clinching putt to join his other green-jacketed countrymen: Sergio Garcia (2017), Jose Maria Olazabal (1994, ’99) and Seve Ballesteros (1980, ’83).

With his (simulated) win, the 25-year-old phenom vaulted ahead of McIlroy into the No. 1 spot in the world ranking. He also had the treat of his childhood idol, Tiger Woods (who finished T57 in his title defense), placing the green jacket on his shoulders. Vamos!