Mexico Open at Vidanta betting guide: 7 picks our expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Mexico Open at Vidanta, which gets underway Thursday in Vallarta, Mexico. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp, a free-to-play mobile platform that features a range of games with enticing prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to engage in the action without risking any money.

With football now in the rearview mirror, it really feels like golf has spiked, coming off of a star-studded Genesis Invitational that saw Hideki Matsuyama threaten pins — and a course record — with his magical round of 62 on Sunday to win the tournament and close out the West Coast Swing. Now we head south of the border for the Mexico Open at Vidanta, followed by the Florida Swing, and then, of course, a trip down Magnolia Lane for the Masters. Get ready for golf season, folks. It’s on.

The Mexico Open at Vidanta takes place in Nuevo Vallarta and is in its third year of existence on Tour. Vidanta Vallarta is a mammoth property with wide fairways, paspalum grass that runs throughout and plays to a par 71 at nearly 7,500 yards long. In just two editions, we have seen the notion of this being a bombers paradise play out. Tony Finau and Jon Rahm have exchanged winning and runner-up positions in 2022 and 2023 and other big hitters like Patrick Rodgers and Cameron Champ have notched top-10 finishes in both years.

While the sample size is not large, I am not going to go away from this course favoring driving distance and Strokes Gained: off the tee. I am also looking at SG: approach, SG: putting (paspalum), scrambling, birdies or better gained and hole proximity from 175 to 200-yards plus.

Other golf courses that matchup with Vidanta Vallarta are the Country Club of Jackson, home to the Sanderson Farms Championship, Torrey Pines, Quail Hollow, Corales Golf Club and Congaree in South Carolina.

There is a big drop-off in star power this week compared to last. Finau is the defending champion and is a heavy favorite. After Finau, the oddsboard almost immediately jumps into players trading at around 20-1 and higher. It is difficult to sift through much of this lesser-known talent and find a sure-fire winner but believe me, just because these players may be lesser-known, it doesn’t mean they aren’t excellent golfers. I feel it is part of the reason that we have seen so many long shots win this season — because there are that many extremely good players right now on Tour. I believe the Mexico Open at Vidanta will produce another winner that is very talented, an up-and-comer — and one that probably lies a little deeper down the oddsboard, continuing the trend we have seen so far early in this 2024 season.

It is worth noting that the forecast is currently calling for temperatures in the 80s with winds around 10 mph, but the wind here does have a tendency to freshen as the day goes on, so keep this in mind when you assemble your card, as well as when considering any in-game wagering.

Lastly, I have been remiss in noting this season, that in addition to making plays on each of these golfers for an outright win, I also like to play them for a top-20 finish, which has been quite good to us so far this season.

Nicolai Hojgaard (16-1)

Hojgaard is this week’s second choice, only behind Finau, but I believe he is absolutely one of the best players in this field and could be ready to grab his first Tour victory. We were on Hojgaard last month when he came oh so close at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, finishing runner-up. Hojgaard was also runner-up at Corales just a little over a year ago. He’s a bomber off the tee, excellent with the long irons, makes a lot of birdies and is very solid in his approaches. In the first two editions at this golf course, we’ve seen the cream rise to the top. It may be Hojgaard’s turn this year.

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Stephan Jaeger (25-1)

We now begin our descent a little further down the board. Like Hojgaard, Jaeger contended last month at Torrey Pines, holding the lead for a bit on Sunday before settling for a third-place finish. He’s played here in both past editions, finishing 15th and 18th. He does everything well that is required this week and his putting has been greatly improved. I feel the near-miss at the Farmers gives Jaeger great experience toward taking the next step and finding that elusive winner’s circle.

Michael Kim (60-1)

Kim does not fit the bomber mold but did finish 30th here last year. While not especially long, he does rank 12th in this field for SG: approach, second for birdies or better gained, and fourth in hole proximity from 175-200 yards. He’s recorded solid finishes at Corales and Torrey Pines and took seventh at Quail Hollow Club in the Wells Fargo Championship last season. It is worth noting that he did so against a Signature Event status field and shot all four rounds in the 60s.

Mark Hubbard (60-1)

The course history is solid for Hubbard, who finished 18th here last year. He also has sixth- and fifth-place finishes at the Sanderson Farms. Hubbard took 20th at Torrey Pines last month and followed that up with a fourth-place finish at Pebble Beach. Over the last 24 rounds, he is No. 1 in this field for SG: approach, 18th for birdies or better gained and 32nd for hole proximity from 200 yards or more.

Alejandro Tosti (66-1)

The Florida Gator ought to be familiar with the tropical-like conditions and afternoon winds that can kick up around Vidanta Vallarta. A graduate of the Korn Ferry Tour, Tosti was a winner back in August and finished sixth at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in October. In his debut at this tournament last season, Tosti finished 10th. He’s one of the bigger hitters in this field, ranking fourth for driving distance over the last 24 rounds. He is 18th in hole proximity from 200-plus yards and he can get it done around the greens too, ranking 12th in this field for scrambling and 26th for SG: putting (paspalum) over the last 12 rounds.

Austin Eckroat (70-1)

Eckroat fits the mold of the type of player I was eluding to earlier who has a great deal of talent, remains relatively unknown and could shine at any minute on Tour. He got a lot of peoples’ attention when he finished 10th at last year’s U.S. Open. Another who ought to be accustomed to some wind, Eckroat played college golf at Oklahoma State and finished fifth at another coastal, correlated design last season, the Corales Puntacana Championship. He ranks 31st in this field for SG: putting (paspalum) over the last 12 rounds.

Chesson Hadley (100-1)

I saw this as high as 125-1 but someone beat me to it and the consensus price on Hadley is now 100-1 or less. It will be his first time teeing it up at this golf course but I like the way he has been going and his history on the correlated courses. Plus, I do feel, despite his odds, that he is one of the better players in this field. Over the last 24 rounds, Hadley ranks ninth in this field for SG: approach, ninth for birdies or better gained, 19th in scrambling and 27th in hole proximity from 175-200 yards. He was runner-up at the Sanderson Farms Championship in 2017 and runner-up again at Congaree Golf Club for the Palmetto Championship in 2021.

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