In anticipation of a birdie-fest at the John Deere Classic, our betting expert marks the holiday with his four top picks.
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Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the John Deere Classic, which gets underway Thursday in Silvis, Ill. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.
This Fourth of July will be a day of fireworks. But firepower? Not so much on the PGA Tour. When play gets underway at the John Deere Classic, in Silvis Ill., many of the game’s biggest names will be sitting out, enjoying a lull in the schedule before things ramp up again at the Scottish Open and Open Championship.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t bet. I’ve been licking my wounds as it’s now two straight weeks in which we’ve had the runner-up. First, Tom Kim at the Travelers Championship, and then Davis Thompson last week in Detroit. Painful. But maybe a little less sting than if we had been on Akshay Bhatia at the Rocket Mortgage. Ouch.
So, on to the Deere. TPC Deere Run, which has been the event venue since 2000, has wide fairways and is one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour. Over the last seven editions of the John Deere Classic, the average winning score has been a shade less than 22-under par. For the third week in a row, expect a birdie-fest.
I looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Good Drives Gained, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting (bentgrass), and — like last week — Hole Proximity from 75-150 yards. As I also pointed out last week, if one is going to keep the pace and go low, the wedge/short-iron play will have to be spot-on.
Going hand-in-hand are a couple of the correlated courses: TPC River Highlands and Detroit Golf Club, home to the last two weeks on Tour, both of which saw players go especially low. I also compared TPC Deere Run to TPC Twin Cities (3M Open), TPC Scottsdale (WM Phoenix), and TPC Potomac.
Thompson, our near-miss pick from last week, makes sense again on paper. So does Ben Griffin, who we were also on last week. But timing is everything in this business, and because the recreational bettor often remembers only what they saw last — or most recently — I think we might have missed our moment. So, I’m going to pass on Thompson and Griffin.
Instead, I am going to go with four new faces. I have played each for an outright win and a top-20 finish.
Sungjae Im (16-1)
Pricing has danced around on Im, who is now the tournament favorite since Patrick Cantlay’s withdraw on Monday. He was around 20-1 prior to Cantlay’s departure and now I’ve seen him listed as low as 12-1. He is certainly a good fit for this course with his work off the tee, on approach, putting, and his ability to rack up birdies in bunches. But I really like what he did two weeks ago at TPC River Highlands, finishing third. That ought to translate well here. Im has finished top-9 in four of his last six starts. That’s impressive. It is not often that we are on the shortest-priced player in the field but I would be surprised if he’s not in the hunt on Sunday.
Adam Svensson (50-1)
From here, we go much deeper down the board. In a watered-down field, it can be tough to find a player who makes sense, coupled with a fair price, but I think we have one in Svensson. He is one of the class players in this field. He has the President’s Cup motivation in pocket as well since all Canadian players would love to compete in Montreal this fall. In three visits to Deere Run, Svensson has finished top-24 or better each time. He nails the ball-striking numbers, has finished as high as 15th at TPC Twin Cities and just took 16th at TPC River Highlands against a strong field. His putting rank in this field is above average. If he finds a couple of hot days with the flatstick, he could nab his second career win.
Daniel Berger (70-1)
We spoke about timing being everything. A month ago, I took a stab with Berger at the Canadian Open. He had made three cuts in a row and we were still getting very big prices on a guy who was a top-15 player in the world not long ago. I’m going to try again this week, against a weaker field. Statistically, Berger is similar to Svensson. The ball-striking numbers are excellent. If the putter can get on a heater, Berger’s return to elite-level golf could receive a huge boost. Prior to his time away due to injury, Berger had racked up finishes at TPC Scottsdale of 9-11-7-10. He’s finished fifth and runner-up at TPC River Highlands, 15th at the 3M Open, and fifth here at the John Deere Classic. I believe he will be back at some point. He’s only 31. Many have ignited their careers with a first-time win at the John Deere. Maybe Berger can reignite his this week.
Joel Dahmen (100-1)
It appears I am not alone in my thinking as I’ve seen the price come down this week on the 36-year old American. Dahmen nearly made my card last week in Detroit and after what I saw, I’m going to roll with him again. I like where his game is. He hasn’t missed a cut in three months. He’s extremely accurate off the tee, ranks fifth in this field for SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, and is second for Hole Proximity from 75-100 yards (and 23rd from 100-125 yards). As with Svensson and Berger, if Dahmen can stumble into a hot putting week, maybe he can do one better than his runner-up finish here in 2018.
