Cognizant Classic betting guide: 7 picks our gambling expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Cognizant Classic, which gets underway Thursday in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

Forty-five days and six golf tournaments remain on the PGA Tour schedule before they put the first peg in the ground at Augusta National Golf Club for the 2025 Masters. The Florida Swing begins this week at the Champion Course at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. for the Cognizant Classic as the march toward the season’s first major championship is officially underway. In shifting from the west coast to the southeast, we go from Poa Annua greens, mountains, elevation change, and the Pacific Ocean to flatlands, palm trees, sand bunkers, Bermudagrass, and often, those infamous Florida winds. Welcome to the next four weeks on Tour in the Sunshine State.

PGA National has been changed to a par 71 recently, converting what was a very lengthy par 4 to a relatively short par 5 on the inward nine. What was originally a George and Tom Fazio design in the early 1980s, has been tweaked several times in the last 20+ years by Jack Nicklaus. The course now stretches to nearly 7,200 yards and is well-known for a brutal finishing stretch of holes (15, 16 and 17) called “The Bear Trap.”

For what is one of the tougher golf courses on the Tour calendar, water comes into play on nearly every hole and there are 60 sand bunkers to negotiate, surrounding relatively large Bermudagrass greens and bordering narrow fairways. Ball-striking is at a premium here, and really throughout the Florida Swing. Work off the tee is very challenging at PGA National and many players will club down, favoring accuracy over length. Well over half of the approach shots this week will come from 125-200 yards and the numbers will show that approaches from 150+ yards at this course are the most difficult on the circuit. With that, Scrambling will of course be crucial this week as well, because greens will be missed and players will be forced to get up and down often.

News

Now, we can pump the brakes on all of this perceived difficulty somewhat as there has been some rain in the area leading up to this tournament and the forecast is looking like the wind will be less of a factor than is often the case. A soft golf course with very little wind will keep more balls in the fairways and on the greens in regulation. The average winning score in 13 of the past 15 editions of this event is less than 9.5 under par. Chris Kirk won at 14 under in 2023 and Austin Eckroat got it to 17 under last year. Note, these last two years have been as a par-71 golf course versus what used to be a par 70. The winning score proposition bet this week at the SuperBook in Las Vegas is 268.5, meaning 15.5 under par.

Correlated courses are harder to uncover in relation to PGA National but a couple of trends we have certainly seen over the years are this course catering to British Open specialists and it having a lot of crossover success with the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu — another coastal course that is wall-to-wall Bermudagrass, with narrow fairways and can be very susceptible to windy conditions. Other courses where I found the need for similar demands as far as skill sets are Silverado in Napa (Procore Championship), The Renaissance Club (Scottish Open), Royal Liverpool, and Narashino Country Club (Zozo Championship) in Japan.

I have played each of this week’s selections for an outright win as well as a Top-20 Finish.

Shane Lowry (20-1)

With the star-power lacking in this field, I believe there is an excellent chance that we get a long-shot winner this week and for the most part, that is the direction I went with the plays — but I had to go to the very top of the odds-board for one of our selections due to his remarkable record here and in the state of Florida. Over the last 36 rounds, Lowry is No. 1 in this field for success on the Florida Swing (Cognizant Classic, Arnold Palmer Invitational, Valspar Championship, and Players Championship). He hasn’t ever missed a cut here at PGA National in seven trips and his last three finishes have been 2-5-4. He comes off a runner-up finish a few weeks ago at Pebble Beach and ranks third on Tour in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards. He is, of course, an Open Championship winner and also finished ninth at Royal Liverpool in 2014. He’s been 12th at the Scottish Open and 13th at the Zozo. Playing in the comfort of his home state, I expect Lowry to be in contention here once again.

Taylor Pendrith (30-1)

I believe there are big things coming in the near future for Pendrith and it could be as soon as this week. He has ascended to the 40th-ranked player in the OWGR, got his first-ever Tour win last May, and already has two top-10 finishes in five starts this season. He is a big hitter and an excellent putter — a lethal combination in golf. Pendrith ranks second on Tour in Ball Striking and over the last 36 rounds, is fourth in this field for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 40th for Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards, and is seventh for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). Often looked at as a force on the bigger golf courses, Pendrith also had a 10th-place finish last season at the Sony Open — and it doesn’t hurt that Pendrith makes his home right here in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.

Nicolai Hojgaard (64-1)

Like Pendrith, Hojgaard is another big hitter, ranking sixth on Tour in Ball Striking. Over the last 36 rounds, he is fifth in this field for SG: Approach, second in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards and 22nd from 125-150 yards. In 2023, Hojgaard finished sixth at the Scottish Open and followed that up with a 23rd-place finish at Royal Liverpool in the Open Championship. He arrives off an eighth-place finish last week in Mexico where he was second in the field for Greens in Regulation but 55th in SG: Putting. If his putting is even average this week, he will be a threat to win for the second straight week.

J.J. Spaun (70-1)

The consummate ball striker, Spaun has made a career for himself nearly on this skill set alone. Over the last 36 rounds, he is No. 1 in this field for SG: Approach. He ranks ninth for SG: Ball Striking and is third in Hole Proximity from 125-150 yards. Spaun also lines up quite nicely on the correlated courses this week with ninth and 11th-place finishes in Napa, a 12th and a third coming earlier this season at the Sony Open, and two sixth-place finishes at the Zozo Championship.

Jhonattan Vegas (85-1)

The big hitting Venezuelan has played this event 10 times in his career and has only missed the cut once. Six times has he finished top 30 with a fourth place in 2017 being his best effort. Vegas also has a top-10 finish at Silverado, where he’s made five of six cuts, and an 11th-place finish at the Zozo this past October. He ranks sixth in this field for SG: Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds, 10th for SG: Approach, 18th for SG: Off the Tee, and is 28th for Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards.

Nico Echavarria (100-1)

Speaking of the Zozo Championhip last October, Echavarria was your winner there and then began his 2025 season with a runner-up finish at the Sony Open, falling to Nick Taylor in a playoff at Waialae Country Club. He is another Florida resident who has played here many times, finishing 21st last year. We spoke about this golf course being especially difficult on approach from 150 yards or more. Echavarria ranks second in this field for Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards over the last 36 rounds. He is 13th for Good Drives Gained and also 16th for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). 100-1 seems plenty generous for a guy who not only makes sense at this course, but has won twice on Tour in the last two seasons.

Ben Kohles (200-1)

Now for our really long bomb, and yes, he too is a Florida resident. Kohles is deadly accurate off the tee and ranks 15th on Tour in Ball Striking. Over the last 36 rounds, he is fourth in this field for Good Drives Gained and is No. 1 for Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards. Kohles comes in off a top-25 finish in Mexico where he closed with a round of 65. He is currently 15th on Tour in SG: Putting.

Who Chirp Golf users are picking this week

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