Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Shriners Children’s Open, which gets underway Thursday in Las Vegas. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.
We are entering the halfway point of the FedEx Cup Fall as the Tour makes the short trip from Ivins, Utah, down to Las Vegas this week for the Shriners Children’s Open, in what will be the fourth of the eight fall series events.
An interesting twist is the weather here in Las Vegas this week. We have had the hottest summer on record in 2024 and the triple-digit temperatures truly just left us about a week ago. Now, suddenly, the forecast for this week at TPC Summerlin is calling for high temperatures of 81, 64, 69, and 73 Thursday through Sunday. Winds are expected to reach 20+ mph on Thursday and Friday with little to no wind expected on Sunday.
Adjust your handicap accordingly and maybe pack a sweater.
TPC Summerlin is a Bobby Weed design, measuring roughly 7,250 yards and plays as a par 71. Hole No. 3 plays as a shorter par 5 for the membership but will play as a difficult par 4 this week for the pros. Last week, we were at 3,000 feet above sea level. This week, we dip down to about 2,700 feet — so some extra distance is still expected for the players this week in what translates to a relatively short track. TPC Summerlin has proven to be, over the years, one of the easiest courses the players see on Tour all year.
With that in mind, I looked at Birdies or Better Gained this week. Hitting the jackpot at this tournament has always been about going low. As noted earlier, we do have a couple days where wind is expected to be a factor, and here at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, the winning score Under/Over is set at 14.5 under par. That is notable because the average winning score over the last eight years is 22 under par — with the exception of 2017 when Patrick Cantlay won with a score of 9 under. That year was an especially windy year for the Shriners Children’s Open.
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I also looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Driving Accuracy. The fairways at TPC Summerlin are very wide. I have played this course personally many times. It is not especially difficult to find the fairways but in order to score, one needs to position themselves properly off the tee and that is where the accuracy factor comes into play. I also looked at SG: Approach, Par 4 scoring on those measuring 400-450 yards, Scrambling, and SG: Putting (Bentgrass).
As for correlated courses, it is worth noting that the combination of Bermudagrass fairways and Bentgrass greens at TPC Summerlin is somewhat rare on Tour, but we do also see it at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, at the Charles Schwab Challenge. I also looked at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu (Sony Open). It is not necessarily a similar course but we have seen crossover success and Waialae does put a premium on Driving Accuracy. Finally, I also considered La Quinta CC (American Express), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage), Memorial Park (Houston Open), and TPC Craig Ranch (Byron Nelson).
Beau Hossler (31-1)
Hossler is often a guy who pops up on the radar in birdie-fests and when competing in a field that is lacking star power. It was just two weeks ago that he lost in a playoff at the Sanderson Farms Championship and followed that up with an 11th-place finish last week in Utah. Hossler has finished seventh here twice, including last year. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 20th in this field for Birdies or Better Gained and in SG: Putting (Bentgrass). He’s also ninth in Scrambling — and it doesn’t hurt, as a University of Texas Longhorn, that Hossler is familiar with playing in the wind. The form is very good right now and I expect it to continue this week.
Cam Davis (36-1)
Like Hossler, Davis also finished seventh here last year and in fact, he’s never missed the cut at this tournament. He’s also played incredibly well at one of our correlated courses, Detroit Golf Club, where he’s won the Rocket Mortgage Classic twice. Being an Australian, he is also well-trained in the wind. Davis hasn’t played competitively since the FedEx Cup Playoffs but he’s one of the better players in this field who has history — and at his last start back in late August, he took fifth at the BMW Championship.
Adam Hadwin (41-1)
Accuracy and short game. That combination has worked masterfully for Hadwin at desert golf courses and beyond throughout his career. Here at Summerlin, he has five top-10 finishes including a runner-up last year. At the American Express in La Quinta, Calif., Hadwin has four top-6 finishes including two runner-ups. He lost in a playoff at the Rocket Mortgage two seasons ago and has also finished as high as seventh in Houston. I can’t not give him a shot to threaten here once again.
Harry Hall (44-1)
We were on the local Las Vegas resident and UNLV Rebel last week in Utah and he wasn’t bad at all until it all unraveled in the final round. Hall shot 65-69-64 the first three days and was just four shots off the lead before shooting 74 on Sunday. We’ll give him another go here at a course he’s played hundreds of times, and at a tournament where he’s never missed a cut and has both a top-10 and top-15 finish to his credit. As we explained last week, Hall is a fantastic putter and is a birdie machine. Certainly, he is also very familiar with how to negotiate the wind around these parts.
Patton Kizzire (75-1)
Kizzire is an example of the TPC Summerlin-Waialae CC-Colonial CC connection, and it is my feeling that it speaks to accuracy off the tee and putting. Kizzire has finished fourth and runner-up here in Las Vegas, third at Colonial, and has won the Sony Open at Waialae. He’s finished top 25 or better multiple times on each of our correlated courses this week. He also returned to the winner’s circle just over a month ago, winning the Procore Championship at Silverado in Napa by five shots. He followed that up with an 11th-place finish at the Sanderson Farms and was 43rd last week at the Black Desert Championship. I like the kind of roll that he’s on and now, coming to a place where he’s had success and a setup that should suit him, he ought to find a great deal of comfort.
Lee Hodges (100-1)
This is my long bomb of the week who I simply feel has a better shot than the triple-digit price would indicate. He took eighth last week in Utah, where he was 14th in the field for SG: Off the Tee, sixth for SG: Approach, and was eighth in Driving Accuracy. Hodges lost over a stroke to the field last week with the putter, ranking 53rd out of the 69 players who made the cut. The ball striking looks excellent. He has finished third at the American Express. If the putter cooperates this week, Hodges should be in the conversation.
Who Chirp Golf players are picking this week
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