2024 Open Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Royal Troon

Phil Mickelson is still confused. The math doesn’t add up. At the 2016 Open Championship, he shot a sizzling 63 on day one at Royal Troon, then followed it up with a 69, a 70 and an outstanding final-round 65. Mickelson says he played his game, and he says when he played his game, it was game over.

But he lost. 

Henrik Stenson was three shots better, and two better in the final round. 

And Mickelson is still confounded.  

“Only time I can remember in my career where I played my absolute best golf and it wasn’t enough to win,” Mickelson said last week. “As I look back, I’ve always tried to put it in my hands. Like if I play my game, if I play well, it will be good enough, and it always has been until that week, when I played my best and it wasn’t enough. 

“But yet, I still really enjoyed that week. I look back on it fondly even though I didn’t win.”

Thing is, he probably should’ve. Outside of Stenson, no one was within 11 shots of Mickelson — and examining that dominance could prove useful this week, when the Open returns to Troon, and you, the bettor, eye some bets. One question is all we need. 

How they’d do it? 

Last week, Mickelson and Stenson had some thoughts, in response to a question about how play at LIV Golf’s event at Valderrama would ready them:

— Wind play is key.  

“We are going to have a very windy day on Friday,” Mickelson said. “So the ability to control the ball in the wind is going to be enhanced. Although the greens are larger, Troon in the wind is so strong that you have to be just as precise. 

“So the iron play into these greens is going to be very similar to what we have next week where it’s precision. You’ve got to really strike it with a certain flight and shape, and come into the green where it’s receptive.”

Lifestyle

— Tee shots are key. 

“Off the tee,” Mickelson said, “it’s a lot of different options, a lot of different club selections at Troon where you put it in a certain spot very much like Valderrama. So you have distance off the tee as well as shape shots to hit the fairways. So the precision game is going to be showcased this next week as well as next.”

— Bag setup is key. 

“For me, I normally carry three fairway woods, or driver, 3-wood, 4-wood,” Stenson said. “But this week, my driving iron and my 2-iron are in the bag instead of my 4-wood. That’s a good chance to kind of get that club going because it’s going to be useful next week.”

Looking for some other ideas for the Open? Friend, you’ve clicked on the right article, where members of our staff have each made a to-win bet. The hope is, of course, we help you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook.

On to our picks.

2024 Open Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch 

Ryan Barath

To-win: Rory McIlroy, +750. Beyond Rory’s obvious skill and his record at the Open Championship, I feel that with this pick I’m channeling my inner Ben Crenshaw by saying. “I’m a big believer in fate. I have a good feeling about this.” I can only begin to imagine the amount of motivation Rory will bring to Troon, so with that, he’s my guy.

Sleeper pick: Nick Taylor, +35,000. I realize that my colleagues are going to call this a simple pro-Canadian pick, but his stats align well for links golf. He strikes his irons well and is positive strokes gained around and on the greens. It’s a recipe for links golf success, and with that in mind, I’m happy to call him my sleeper.

James Colgan 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +450. Sure, it’s lame to pick the favorite, but those are the best odds Scottie has gotten in three months. After the year he’s had, a win at Troon to get to three majors — and halfway to the grand slam — feels only fitting.

Sleeper pick: Sahith Theegala, +6,600: Strange that a guy who’s been right in the mix at a few majors over the past 12 months would be so far down the betting cards. Sure, his game gets a little topsy-turvy, which generally doesn’t jive with the Open, but he played one of the best rounds of his year on Friday at Hoylake last year, and he played really well at the Scottish. I like him a lot.

Dylan Dethier   

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,400. Fleetwood and McIlroy finish T2 while Xander claims his second major championship just two starts after his first.

Sleeper pick: Matthew Jordan, +25,000. His T10 finish at Royal Liverpool last year was noteworthy because he was the hometown kid. But he’s also got a game built and maintained on the seaside links. If he putts reasonably well, he could finish in the top 20 or better.

Nick Dimengo    

To-win: Ludvig Aberg, +1,400. Is the 24-year-old Swede ready for the step into superstardom? If you ask most golf experts, Aberg is the future face of the sport, so what better time than now to prove that he’s worthy of the distinction — on European soil, no less. He’s performed well in two of the three majors this year (second and T12), so he shouldn’t be overwhelmed by the moment.

Sleeper pick: Jason Day, +10,000. The former No. 1 player in the world has had a pretty good year, finding himself in the T10 on four occasions. With a runner-up finish at last year’s Open Championship (along with a T22 at Royal Troon in 2016), something’s just telling me that Day could find himself hoisting the Claret Jug at the end of this thing.

Connor Federico  

To-win: Brian Harman, +5,000. Golf fans and oddsmakers alike seem to forget the Champion Golfer of the Year’s six-shot win at Royal Liverpool last July. The victory changed the narrative of Harman’s career, launching him on to a U.S. Ryder Cup team, but he has yet to win on Tour since. Do I think he will take the Claret Jug again in such dominating fashion? No — but we certainly didn’t pick him to win last year, either. 

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +17,500. The newly named U.S. Ryder Cup captain told us this week he wants to make the 2025 team as a player, but wouldn’t pick himself. That means he’d have to qualify for the team on points, and there’s no better place to earn those than at major championships. Can Bradley parlay the excitement from his announcement into a big win at Royal Troon? He’s still a Top 20 player in the world, and there aren’t many pros better at using emotion to fuel on-course success.  

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Scottie Scheffler, +450. My heart wants to pick Rory McIlroy, but I cannot in good faith pick against Scottie Scheffler right now.

Sleeper pick:  Sahith Theegala, +6,600. Let me be clear that if Scheffler doesn’t win, McIlroy will. But if I have to pick a third player, it would be Theegala again. (I think he’s been my sleeper in all four majors.) The only real deficiency in his game is his play around the greens, but I think links golf can sort of neutralize that given how different the short game is in the UK. Otherwise, his creativity and shot making make an excellent fit for links golf.

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Zephyr Melton 

To-win: Collin Morikawa, +2,000. T3, T4, T14. Those are Morikawa’s major finishes this season. He’s yet to win a tournament this season, but he’s showing up in the biggest events. He’s due for a breakthrough. 

Sleeper pick: Mathieu Pavon, +10,000. It’s been a breakout year for the Frenchman, as he’s earned his first career Tour victory and contended at the U.S. Open. Back on European soil, he may have a little more magic in him.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Brooks Koepka, +3,300. I like that he’s a little down the board. I like Collin Morikawa here, too. 

Sleeper pick: Tom Hoge, +20,000. He’s second this year on the PGA Tour is Strokes Gained: Approach. I like that. 

Josh Sens

To-win: Rory McIlroy, +750. You can keep a good man down for only so long. I’m thinking 10 years and 38 majors are enough. The 39th time will be the charm.

Sleeper pick: Tom Hoge, +20,000. I like Nick’s thinking. Iron play will be key. 

Jonathan Wall 

To-win: Viktor Hovland, +2,200. Hovland’s worst finish at the Open Championship is a T13. I don’t know about your standards, but that’s pretty good in my book. Recent run of good form only reinforces the choice. Three of the past seven major winners have been first-timers. I think Hovi makes it four at Troon. 

Sleeper pick: Justin Rose, +10,000. From a Strokes Gained standpoint, no one has putted better than Rose in the majors going back to 2019. His recent track record on golf’s biggest stage — four missed cuts in five major starts — makes him a questionable selection. But I like the fact that he qualified for this year’s Open and has a strong track record on links-style setups.