The post Wyndham Championship betting guide: 7 picks our expert loves appeared first on Golf.

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Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2025 Wyndham Championship, which gets underway Thursday at Sedgefield Country Club in North Carolina. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both free-to-play and daily fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

If you felt a bit of a lull after the season’s final major championship, I hope that you’re over it because the excitement is just beginning here for the next couple of months in the world of golf.

The Wyndham Championship, held at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, N.C., marks the final tournament of the PGA Tour regular season. At the tournament’s conclusion, the top-70 players in the FedEx Cup standings will advance to the FedExCup Playoffs, beginning next week at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tenn. Those players who find themselves in the top 100 in the standings after the FedEx Fall maintain their active status on the circuit for the 2026 season. Players that find themselves ranked in the top 50 at the conclusion of the Tour Championship qualify for the 2026 Signature Events.

Oh, and there’s that friendly little golf get together in late September they call the Ryder Cup that still has plenty of open spots left on the line too.

Yes, there is a lot happening on the links and it begins this week at Sedgefield Country Club which is a relatively short par-70 Donald Ross design, stretching to just better than 7,100 yards. Narrow, tree-lined fairways approach smaller-than-average, heavily undulated greens that feature the traditional Ross run-off areas, making scrambling a key element this week. Driving accuracy is more important than length off the tee and short-iron play from 100-175 yards is a huge part of the winning formula. Ball strikers and putters tend to flourish here and so do players that play well on par-4s measuring 400-450 yards, of which eight of the 12 on the course fall.

Features

Course history and crossover success with other golf courses similar to Sedgefield is a very strong component to the handicap this week. Take Webb Simpson, who has won here, at TPC Sawgrass, and at Harbour Town, home of the RBC Heritage. Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner, Si Woo Kim, Billy Horschel — it is a long list of players who have done well on all of the comp courses this week. I also looked at TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic), Sea Island (RSM Classic) and another Donald Ross design, East Lake Golf Club, where we will be in a few weeks for the Tour Championship.

Robert MacIntyre (35-1)

It feels like Bobby Mac is a bit under the radar this week. Matt Fitzpatrick is the tournament favorite and has been playing very well but we can get the Scotsman at nearly twice the price. Both players are well inside the top 70 in the standings but Fitzpatrick does have some work to do if he plans on playing on the European side for the upcoming Ryder Cup. MacIntyre hasn’t missed a cut since the Masters. He was sixth at the Charles Schwab, runner-up at the U.S. Open and seventh in his last start at the Open Championship. He also finished ninth earlier this season at the Players Championship and took 17th last month at the Travelers. He has everything I want here: accuracy off the tee, short game, approach play and he makes a lot of birdies.

Lucas Glover (39-1)

Very much a horse for this course, winning here two years ago and finishing top 10 or better at all of our correlated courses, including a win at the John Deere Classic in 2021. Glover has been playing great golf this season, finishing third at the Players and most recently ninth at the Travelers, fifth at the John Deere, and 23rd at the Open Championship. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks top 16 in this field for Hole Proximity between 100-175 yards and is No. 1 from 125-150. Get that putter warmed up, Lucas.

Harry Hall (40-1)

No need to beg for a hot putter with Harry Hall, who ranks fourth in this field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) over the last 24 rounds and is No. 1 in Birdies or Better Gained. Like Glover, Hall too is one of the very best in the field for Hole Proximity from 100-175 yards. He hasn’t missed a cut in nearly five months and just recently finished ninth at the Travelers.

Akshay Bhatia (40-1)

Here’s another player who is excellent on approach, is a great putter and is accurate off the tee. He was tied for the 54-hole lead last week in Minnesota before unraveling with a round of 75 on Sunday. I expect a bounce back here for a guy, like Glover, who finished third earlier this season at TPC Sawgrass.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (55-1)

Being South African, he is not a part of the Ryder Cup conversation but he is trying to make the postseason, currently ranked 74th in the FedEx Cup, and he’s been playing very well. Bezuidenhout has finished top 16 three times in his last eight starts and was 20th just last week at the 3M Open. He is accurate off the tee, 12th in this field on the 400-450 yard par-4s over the last 24 rounds and ranks second for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). He’s never missed a cut in four tries here at the Wyndham and is five-for-five in cuts made at the RBC Heritage. He’s twice finished 13th at the Players Championship and has been runner-up at the John Deere Classic.

Andrew Novak (66-1)

We mentioned a mix of ball strikers and putters and while Novak has been absolutely of the ball-striker type for a few seasons now, the putter has begun to fire as well. He went from ranking 100th on Tour in 2024 to 36th this season for SG: Putting. Novak grew up in Raleigh, N.C. – about 90 minutes from Greensboro – and went to Wofford College, about three hours from Sedgefield Country Club, so he is plenty familiar with the golf course and the surroundings. Earlier this season, Novak lost in a playoff at the RBC Heritage.

Chris Kirk (95-1)

We are jumping right back on the Chris Kirk train this week after narrowly missing out last month at the Rocket Classic when he lost in a playoff. Kirk has won at Sea Island, been fourth at East Lake and has multiple top-10 finishes at Harbour Town and three top-15 finishes at TPC Sawgrass. He is accurate off the tee, great on approach and one of the game’s best from 100-150 yards. Kirk currently sits 73rd in the FedEx Cup standings. He has twice finished top 15 and once runner-up in his last five starts.

Who Chirp Golf users are picking this week

To make your own Chirp picks and win amazing prizes, download the app here.

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The post 2025 Open Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Royal Portrush appeared first on Golf.

The post 2025 Open Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Royal Portrush appeared first on Golf.

Rory McIlroy says he would love to win an Open Championship at Royal Portrush, which is in McIlroy’s home country of Northern Ireland, and an Open at St. Andrews and a U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. His aspirations speak to the appeal of winning a major — not only are you coming out on top in one of golf’s biggest events, but because they’re most often held at the world’s best venues, you’re winning at a gem. 

He then added this:

“I’d love to win a PGA at PGA Frisco — not.”

McIlroy laughed (and PGA of America folks likely cringed at the dagger directed at the new course built just outside of their headquarters). But there’s maybe a bigger takeaway here as we descend into Open Championship week at Portrush. 

McIlroy seemed in good spirits, and his mood had been a topic since he won the Masters in April and completed the career grand slam. As he spoke more last week, he also sounded motivated, which had also been in question since he left Augusta. The event matters to him. As does the venue. 

As does making some amends. Five years ago, when Portrush hosted its second Open, McIlroy shot an almost unfathomable first-round 79, and he went on to miss the cut. 

“There’s venues in the game that just mean a little bit more,” McIlroy said. “Frisco might get there one day, who knows. But yeah, and I think, as well, having Portrush from home and the experience I had there last time, you know, I want to — the Friday was amazing, the Thursday, not too much.

“It’s a little like [Novak] Djokovic won the Olympics last year, he knew that was going to be his final chance, and you saw the emotion and you saw how much it meant to him. You think about it, and you can’t pretend that it’s not there. But when you are on the golf course, you just have to go out there and play as if you’re not playing at home and just play as if it’s another golf tournament.

“But yeah, it obviously is a little more — it has a little more, like, emphasis. There’s something extra there.”

With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win and a sleeper selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis. 

2025 Open Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch 

Alan Bastable 

To-win: Matt Fitzpatrick, +5,500. Just a couple of months ago, Fitzpatrick described his game as “rubbish.” But at the Masters and, a week later, at Harbour Town, he said he found something. He didn’t get into specifics, but whatever Fitzy has unearthed, it’s working. In his past five starts, he has three top-20 finishes, including a T8 at the PGA, and he played beautifully at the Scottish Open. He’s primed for a big week in Portrush.

Sleeper pick: Dustin Johnson, +18,000. Great links player and carded the round of the week (second-round 65) at LIV Andalucia. Feels like one of these major weeks where he might rewind the clock and remember deep down he has more raw talent than most of his peers.

Josh Berhow 

To-win: Robert MacIntyre, +2,400. Karma is coming for Robert MacIntyre. The good kind, that is. He was the runner-up at the U.S. Open last month but warmed our hearts with his genuine reaction to J.J. Spaun’s winning putt. Now it’s his turn, and it’s at a place where he tied for sixth in his major debut back in 2019. He’s had a great season but hasn’t been able to win yet. Maybe that first victory (and first major) comes this week.

Sleeper pick: Sepp Straka, +4,500. The good? He has two wins this season. The bad? He’s missed the cut in all three majors this year. Although that’s why we can properly place him in the sleeper category. He tied for 22nd at the Open last year and tied for second the year before. He’s also coming off a solid week at the Scottish Open. He’s a good one to take a flier on.

Dylan Dethier   

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood, +2,200. Feels like the ultimate square play this week; he finished second the last time the Open was at Portrush, he finished second in his final start before heading over the pond and there’s a massive cohort of people who’d absolutely love for him to win. But he’s also an incredibly well-rounded player, one of the best in the world, and although he’s known in the states for not having a win, he’s done plenty of winning on other continents. The sentimental play may also be the right one. (Sidenote: I’ve been told by several friends to stop picking Xander every time, as it looks lazy, but just assume we’re tipping him every major, too. Also intrigued by Sepp Straka (66-1) and Daniel Berger (100-1) as Sunday contenders.)

Sleeper pick: Harry Hall, +11,000. Hall has been quietly putting together a hell of a summer; he enters the Scottish Open on a run of six consecutive top-25s. Will his elite putting translate across the pond? It sure did when he qualified for this event last week. Some others: I’ve been happily on Matthew Jordan the past couple Opens and he’s finished T10 back-to-back years; at 400-1, he’s worth consideration. Add in Lucas Glover (250-1) to round out your long shots. Add Daniel Berger and Sepp Straka if you’re looking for a few midfielders. Happy hunting!

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Rory McIlroy, +650. It seems as though McIlroy has been searching for a new dream to chase for the past few months after he finally got over the hump at the Masters to complete the career grand slam. If there was ever something to motivate him to win another major, it would be playing one at Portrush. It really just comes down to whether his iron play is like it was at Augusta and the start of the year, or like it was at Oakmont.

Sleeper pick: Ben Griffin, +6,600. Seems as though everyone forgot that Ben Griffin was nearly as hot in April and May as Scottie Scheffler. I like his game for links golf.

Kris McCormack 

To-win: Rory McIlroy, +650. Rory’s back at Portrush, and this time, he’s got a ton of momentum. He finally got the Masters, he’s playing with confidence, and the crowd will be behind him. Feels like the stars might actually line up for a second major win this season.

Sleeper pick: Robert MacIntyre, +2,400. MacIntyre’s been trending all year and knows how to handle links golf. He’s tough, confident and not afraid of the big pressure moments. Exactly the kind of guy who could crash the party at Portrush.

Zephyr Melton 

News

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +480. Not overthinking this one. Scottie may not be the best value pick, but he’s the most sensible. If he’s on the correct side of the draw, he’ll be in the mix come Sunday.

Sleeper pick: Ryan Fox, +6,500. He’s got two wins already this year and hasn’t finished outside the top 30 since early May. Why not bet on the Kiwi as a long-shot pick?

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood, +2,200. Fleetwood bags his first major. He was runner-up at Portrush in 2019, and his form suggests he’ll at least contend this week.  

Sleeper pick: Padraig Harrington, +25,000. At these odds, why not? The Irishman’s motivated. He’s in form, too, after his U.S. Senior Open win. And he’s a two-time Open winner. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. We saw signs of life from Rahm at Quail Hollow and he is still one of the best players in the world. Add in his great Open record and I think we’re ripe for a weekend that sees Rahm thrust himself back into the spotlight.

Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +18,000. Rickie has been quietly playing some pretty good golf outside of an MC at the Rocket Classic. He’s a good links player who I think still has one or two quality major showings left in him. Why not now?

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +480. It’s been a few weeks since Scheffler won a big event. He’s due. 

Sleeper pick: Marc Leishman, +12,500. By his own account, he’s been playing some of the best golf of his life. He showed some good form at Oakmont. And like a lot of Aussies, he’s no stranger to the bouncy links golf of the Open. 

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. The Apex Predator is starting to look comfy again with this new putter, and if he can get into the final group come Sunday, nobody beats him.

Matt Ziance 

To-win: Viktor Hovland, +2,300. History doesn’t lie. Ten of the past 11 Open champs have finished T3 or better in at least one of their five previous events. Hovland finished third at Oakmont last month, and the Oslo native is ready to add ‘Major Champion’ to his resume.

Sleeper pick: Ryan Fox, +6,500. With eight career international wins under his belt and his two PGA Tour wins earlier this season, Fox is in prime condition to shock and awe at Royal Portrush. The New Zealand native will feel right at home with the course (and weather) next week. Don’t be surprised if Ryan Fox lifts the Claret Jug on Sunday. 

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Bryson DeChambeau says he plans to keep things simple. Execute shots. Find fairways. Avoid three-putts. Stay out of the rough. 

Of course, if only it were that simple, especially at vaunted Oakmont. 

DeChambeau even vouched for the difficulty of the course, at the start of a YouTube video he’d shot there. 

“The fairways are incredibly narrow, the greens are so fast they inspired the creation of the Stimpmeter, and the rough is more than 5 inches deep,” he said. “This course doesn’t just challenge your game, it challenges your sanity.”

And yet, as you try to find a winner for this week’s U.S. Open, you may not need to look further than DeChambeau. He’s in form, having won once on LIV Golf this season and posting a pair of top five finishes in the year’s first two majors (tied for fifth at the Masters, and tied for second at the PGA Championship). He’s long, which should neutralize some of Oakmont’s defense — wedges out of the rough will be easier than any other club. 

And he can call on history. DeChambeau’s won a pair of U.S. Open titles, on two other sanity-challengers: Winged Foot in 2020, and Pinehurst No. 2, last year. 

“Going back-to-back would be great,” he said. “Three in a row would be an even better accomplishment.

“So it is in the back of my head. How am I preparing for it? Just like I would any other tournament.” 

Simple enough. 

With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win and a sleeper selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis. 

2025 U.S. Open expert picks to win, sleepers to watch

James Colgan

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,750. This feels like a five-man race: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Schauffele. For value’s sake, I’ll take the guy with the longest odds of the group.

Sleeper pick: Phil Mickelson, +30,000. In honor of the “high likelihood” that this is Lefty’s last U.S. Open, let’s sprinkle a little on him to make things interesting in his pursuit of the career grand slam.

Dylan Dethier   

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +2,000. Don’t let him throw you off the scent with his first non-top-20 major finish in three-plus years or a surprisingly poor putting performance at Memorial. If Xander can find the groove with his driver, he has as good a chance as anybody to win this thing. Don’t forget: He’s played eight U.S. Opens in his life, he’s never finished worse than 14th, and he has six top-7s. Book this man for a win, cover your bases with a top 10.

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +10,000. Granted, he’s not in mega-longshot territory. (If you want to go further down the board, Cameron Young at 150-1 should make you think about some top-10 numbers, and Max Greyserman in 250-1 territory is even more exciting, and Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is worth a look, too.) But Keegan is playing better than you’d think, he’s driving the ball like a stallion and Oakmont is just close enough to the Northeast to give him the vibes he found in an Aronimink win all those years ago. Who better to challenge for the U.S. Open than the U.S. Ryder Cup captain …?

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Collin Morikawa, +2,100: Guys who hit it straight off the tee and in the proper place on the greens will do well at Oakmont. Morikawa fits the bill. You could argue so does Scottie Scheffler, but I’m trying to change things up.

Sleeper pick: Justin Rose, +8,500. 85-to-1 for the guy who nearly kept Rory McIlroy from winning the Grand Slam is criminal. Rose has won two of his 11 PGA Tour titles in the great commonwealth of Pennsylvania, including his only major down the PA turnpike at Merion.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. How can I go with any other player? Scottie is back in alpha mode, and a U.S. Open at Oakmont — golf’s toughest test on the game’s toughest course — will identify the most complete player as champion. That’s Scottie. Third leg of the career grand slam comin’ up!

Sleeper pick: Sam Burns, +7,500. If the greens are in fact running at 14+ on the Stimpmeter, good putters will prevail, and Sam is among the best on Tour. Plus, he has a pretty good U.S. Open record: T27, T32 and T9 in his past three appearances.

Zephyr Melton 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. No need to overthink this one. Scottie is back to his dominant form, and so long as he brings his B-game, he’ll be a factor on Sunday. And if he is in the hunt, who’s going to outduel him? So far, the answer has been no one. 

Sleeper pick: Ben Griffin, +5,500. The dude has been on a heater. Why not throw a little money on him as a long-shot pick? 

Nick Piastowski 

Lifestyle

To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +750. With high rough, give me the guy who’s hitting wedges into the greens. It’s hard to bet against Scottie Scheffler, but I’m predicting a DeChambeau repeat. 

Sleeper pick: Dustin Johnson, +12,000. The form hasn’t been there. But why not place a nickel on the guy who won the last time the U.S.Open was played at Oakmont?

Josh Schrock

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. All Scottie has done lately is win. With the rust from his ravioli injury fully behind him, he has reasserted himself as the dominant force in professional golf. On a track that is going to reward those who play smart, safe golf, Scheffler is the best option to tame Oakmont. At the very least, he is unlikely to take himself out of the equation by compounding his mistakes. I almost went with Jon Rahm here, but at this point, not picking Scheffler feels like malpractice. 

Sleeper pick: Justin Rose, +8,500. Last time the U.S. Open was at Oakmont, Jim Furyk finished T2. I think there will be at least one old lion hanging around on the weekend in Western Pennsylvania. Rose seems to have finally nursed his wounds from his Masters loss, and I think he’ll find a way to be in contention come Saturday and Sunday. I’d also look at Jason Day at +8,000.

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. I’ve been trying to think of a good reason not to take the best player in the world, but I’m not clever enough to come up with one. The guy rarely has an off week, and even when he does, he contends. There’s not another player in the field you can say that about.

Sleeper pick: Denny McCarthy, +11,000. The fairways are wider at Oakmont than they were when DJ won in 2016 and the greens are larger. Driving and iron play still matter a lot, of course. But the biggest test is going to come on greens that famously run as slick as skating rinks. Putting will be at a premium. So if we’re looking for a dark horse, why not a guy who rolls it as well as pretty much anyone?

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. The big Spaniard is due to close one of these out again, and IF HE PUTTS, Oakmont is a perfect layout for him. I also think he’s getting tired of not being in the who’s-the-best convo these days. He’s going to make us all remember who he is.

Sleeper pick: Tommy Fleetwood, +3,250. Oddly, it’s his iron play that has failed him recently so if that’s even remotely good, I feel like this could be his time.

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Phil Mickelson wins the U.S. Open. 

Should you love a storyline bet, you may not find a better one, especially considering:

– Mickelson remains a U.S. Open short of the career grand slam; 

– Mickelson’s hard-luck history with the tournament; 

– His long-shot odds (he’s listed at 300-1);

– And the thought that this year’s event, at Oakmont, may be his final U.S. Open. 

To the last point, Mickelson said this at last week’s LIV Golf event: 

“I haven’t thought about it too much,” he said. “There’s a high likelihood that it will be, but I haven’t really thought about it too much.”

This year, Mickelson’s playing on an exemption earned from winning the 2021 PGA Championship, but it expires at this U.S. Open. There are other avenues into next year’s Open, though he also said last week that he didn’t know if he would enter qualifying. 

Of course, Mickelson could also win this week — at +30,000 odds, too. 

With that, let’s continue to dig. Below, members of our staff have each made a long-shot selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis.

2025 U.S. Open sleeper picks to watch

James Colgan 

Sleeper pick: Phil Mickelson, +30,000. In honor of the “high likelihood” that this is Lefty’s last U.S. Open, let’s sprinkle a little on him to make things interesting in his pursuit of the career grand slam.

Dylan Dethier   

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +10,000. He’s not in true long-shot territory. (Cameron Young at 150-1 will make you think about some top-10 numbers, and Max Greyserman in 250-1 territory is even more exciting, while Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is worth a look, too.) But Keegan is playing better than you’d think, he’s driving the ball like a stallion and Oakmont is just close enough to the Northeast to give him the vibes he found in an Aronimink win all those years ago. Who better to win the U.S. Open than the U.S. Ryder Cup captain?

Jack Hirsh 

Sleeper pick: Justin Rose, +8,500. 85-to-1 for the guy who nearly kept Rory McIlroy from winning the Grand Slam is criminal. Rose has won two of his 11 PGA Tour titles in the great commonwealth of Pennsylvania, including his only major down the PA turnpike at Merion.

Jessica Marksbury

Sleeper pick: Sam Burns, +7,500. If the greens are in fact running at 14+ on the Stimpmeter, good putters will prevail, and Sam is among the best on Tour. Plus, he has a pretty good U.S. Open record: T27, T32 and T9 in his past three appearances.

Zephyr Melton 

Sleeper pick: Ben Griffin, +5,500. The dude has been on a heater. Why not throw a little money on him as a long-shot pick? 

Nick Piastowski 

Sleeper pick: Dustin Johnson, +12,000. The form hasn’t been there. But why not place a nickel on the guy who won the last time the U.S.Open was played at Oakmont?

Josh Schrock

Sleeper pick: Justin Rose, +8,500. Last time the U.S. Open was at Oakmont, Jim Furyk finished T2. I think there will be at least one old lion hanging around on the weekend in Western Pennsylvania. Rose seems to have finally nursed his wounds from his Masters loss, and I think he’ll find a way to be in contention come Saturday and Sunday. I’d also look at Jason Day at +8,000.

Josh Sens

Sleeper pick: Denny McCarthy, +11,000. The fairways are wider at Oakmont than they were when DJ won in 2016 and the greens are larger. Driving and iron play still matter a lot, of course. But the biggest test is going to come on greens that famously run as slick as skating rinks. Putting will be at a premium. So if we’re looking for a dark horse, why not a guy who rolls it as well as pretty much anyone?

Johnny Wunder  

Sleeper pick: Tommy Fleetwood, +3,250. Oddly, it’s his iron play that has failed him recently so if that’s even remotely good, I feel like this could be his time.

The post 2025 U.S. Open sleeper picks to watch: Who might break out at Oakmont appeared first on Golf.

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Scottie Scheffler is different, Luke Clanton says. 

Tell us something we don’t know, right? No two people, of course, are alike — and no one’s like Scheffler, winner of 16 tournaments since 2022, including three majors. But Clanton said he did spot something from him during the Memorial’s final round that struck him. 

It featured his hands. 

“If you watched him play, he threw one fist pump, and he was leading the event,” said Clanton, the 21-year-old who recently turned pro. “He was so locked in on what he was doing.”

Rory McIlroy has been too. He, like Scheffler, has won a major this year. He, like Scheffler, has won three times on the PGA Tour this year. And he, like Scheffler, never gets too high or low, Clanton said last week. Heading into this week’s U.S. Open at Oakmont, their success, their skill and their disposition make for an attractive package, should you be trying to find a winner.

But a small question is, is there anyone else to consider? Are we looking at Scheffler and McIlroy versus the field?

If you’re asking for this author’s opinion, it’s no, and Maja Stark, the U.S. Women’s Open winner, summed things up best there two weeks ago when she said: “I mean, anything can happen. The ball is round. The course is hard.” 

Then again, Scheffler and McIlroy have combined to play in 14 non-team Tour events this year and have won six, or nearly half. 

And they’re different. 

With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish.

On to our analysis. 

2025 U.S. Open picks to win 

James Colgan 

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,750. This feels like a five-man race: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Schauffele. For value’s sake, I’ll take the guy with the longest odds of the group.

Dylan Dethier   

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,750. Don’t let him throw you off the scent with his first non-top-20 major finish in three-plus years or a surprisingly poor putting performance at Memorial. If Xander can find the groove with his driver, he has as good a chance as anybody to win this thing. Don’t forget: He’s played eight U.S. Opens in his life, he’s never finished worse than 14th, and he has six top-7s. Book this man for a win, cover your bases with a top 10.

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Collin Morikawa, +2,100: Guys who hit it straight off the tee and in the proper place on the greens will do well at Oakmont. Morikawa fits the bill. You could argue so does Scottie Scheffler, but I’m trying to change things up.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. How can I go with any other player? Scottie is back in alpha mode, and a U.S. Open at Oakmont — golf’s toughest test on the game’s toughest course — will identify the most complete player as champion. That’s Scottie. Third leg of the career grand slam comin’ up!

Zephyr Melton

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. No need to overthink this one. Scottie is back to his dominant form, and so long as he brings his B-game, he’ll be a factor on Sunday. And if he is in the hunt, who’s going to outduel him? So far, the answer has been no one. 

Nick Piastowski

To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +750. With high rough, give me the guy who’s hitting wedges into the greens. It’s hard to bet against Scottie Scheffler, but I’m predicting a DeChambeau repeat. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. All Scottie has done lately is win. With the rust from his ravioli injury fully behind him, he has reasserted himself as the dominant force in professional golf. On a track that is going to reward those who play smart, safe golf, Scheffler is the best option to tame Oakmont. At the very least, he is unlikely to take himself out of the equation by compounding his mistakes. I almost went with Jon Rahm here, but at this point, not picking Scheffler feels like malpractice. 

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. I’ve been trying to think of a good reason not to take the best player in the world, but I’m not clever enough to come up with one. The guy rarely has an off week, and even when he does, he contends. There’s not another player in the field you can say that about.

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. The big Spaniard is due to close one of these out again, and IF HE PUTTS, Oakmont is a perfect layout for him. I also think he’s getting tired of not being in the who’s-the-best convo these days. He’s going to make us all remember who he is.

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Xander Schauffele agrees with the thought. He’s read all about its name, too.  

“I guess writers,” he said, “call it horses for courses.”

Indeed. We’re a rhyming bunch, for sure. But the idea is a basic one — players play well at certain courses — and it’ll be one to consider as you try to find a winner at this week’s PGA Championship. While, at best, tracks hold majors once every so many years, there are a handful, like Quail Hollow this week, that also host PGA Tour events annually, giving players (and gamblers) some experience in which to work. 

So who answers the mail at Quail? As you look to make your selections, here are the top 10s at the track over the past 10 years, which includes the top 10 at the 2017 PGA:

(Note: The 2020 event was not played, and Quail Hollow hosted the 2022 Presidents Cup.)

2015 Wells Fargo Championship
Rory McIlroy, 17-under
Xander Schauffele, 12-under
Byeong Hun An, 9-under
Sungjae Im, 6-under
Jason Day
Mackenzie Hughes, 5-under
Denny McCarthy
Max Homa, 4-under
Sepp Straka
Taylor Pendrith, 3-under
Russell Henley
Grayson Murray 

2016 Wells Fargo Championship
James Hahn, 9-under
Roberto Castro   
Justin Rose, 8-under
Rickie Fowler, 7-under
Andrew Loupe
Rory McIlroy
Phil Mickelson
Lucas Glover, 6-under
Fabian Gomez, 5-under
Danny Lee 

2017 PGA Championship
Justin Thomas, 8-under
Francesco Molinari, 6-under 
Louis Oosthuizen
Patrick Reed
Rickie Fowler, 5-under
Hideki Matsuyama
Graham DeLaet, 4-under
Kevin Kisner
Jason Day, 1-under
Matt Kuchar
Jordan L Smith
Chris Stroud 

2018 Wells Fargo Championship
Jason Day, 12-under
Nick Watney, 10-under
Aaron Wise
Bryson DeChambeau, 8-under
Paul Casey, 7-under
Phil Mickelson
Peter Uihlein
Patrick Reed, 6-under
Emiliano Grillo, 5-under
Luke List
Sam Saunders
Charl Schwartzel 

2019 Wells Fargo Championship
Max Homa, 15-under
Joel Dahmen, 12-under
Justin Rose, 11-under
Paul Casey, 9-under
Jason Dufner
Rickie Fowler
Sergio Garcia
Rory McIlroy, 7-under
Keith Mitchell
Pat Perez
Kyle Stanley
Jhonattan Vegas 

2021 Wells Fargo Championship
Rory McIlroy, 10-under
Abraham Ancer, 9-under
Viktor Hovland, 8-under
Keith Mitchell 
Gary Woodland, 7-under 
Luke List, 5-under
Patrick Reed
Matt Wallace
Bryson DeChambeau, 4-under
Aaron Wise 

2023 Wells Fargo Championship
Wyndham Clark, 19-under
Xander Schauffele, 15-under
Harris English, 12-under
Tyrrell Hatton
Tommy Fleetwood, 11-under
Adam Scott
Michael Kim, 10-under
Denny McCarthy, 8-under
K.H. Lee
Max Homa
Corey Conners
Sungjae Im
Brendon Todd 

2024 Wells Fargo Championship 
Rory McIlroy, 17-under
Xander Schauffele, 12-under
Byeong Hun An, 9-under
Sungjae Im, 6-under
Jason Day
Mackenzie Hughes, 5-under
Denny McCarthy
Max Homa, 4-under
Sepp Straka
Taylor Pendrith, 3-under
Russell Henley
Grayson Murray 

With that, members of our staff have each made both a to-win and a sleeper selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis. 

2025 PGA Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch

Adam Christensen 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +500. Whoever wins the PGA Championship will make a ton of birdies, and Scottie Scheffler is hitting the ball so close to the hole right now it’s impossible for him not to make birdies. His game was ‘off’ to start the year, but he figured it out and is hitting Quail Hollow full of confidence. That’s dangerous for the rest of the field (outside of McIlroy, of course).

Sleeper pick: Russell Henley, +6,000. There are not many golfers on earth who have played more consistently than Russell Henley this year. The main concern in picking Henley is his lack of distance at a course that will favor the heavy hitters, but he has been so accurate this year that maybe he can overcome that. If he has a great week putting and chipping, he could steal a championship.

Connor Federico  

To-win: Ludvig Aberg, +1,600. The Swedish star played his way into contention again at Augusta National. His putter was hot, and his driver was on fire. Although he has no professional history at Quail, the 25-year-old has too much talent to ignore. Justin Thomas was just 24 when he launched into stardom with his first major win here in 2017. I expect Ludvig to walk a similar, multiple-major-winning road, starting this week by lifting the Wanamaker.

Sleeper pick: Max Homa, +8,000. At Quail Hollow, he won his first Tour event at the 2019 Wells Fargo, and he dominated the 2022 Presidents Cup, finishing with four wins and no losses in his United States debut. Home is overcoming some recent struggles, but a T12 finish at the Masters proves he can contend for a major championship. I like his odds considering all the success he’s had in Charlotte.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +500. I’m actually hoping for an epic Scheffler-McIlroy Sunday duel, but ultimately casting my vote for the World No. 1. Fresh off a big win in Texas and with a week of rest, Scottie will be the man to beat at Quail Hollow, and I believe this will be the week where he gets his major mojo back on track.

Sleeper pick: Max Homa, +8,000. The man’s had an admittedly tough season thus far, but his bright spot to date was the Masters, where he finished T12. That gives me some hope for his performance this week, at a course where he’s played well in the past, winning the Wells Fargo Championship in 2019 and finishing T8 the past two years. If any track can help extricate Homa from the funk he’s currently in, it’s this one.

Maddi MacClurg  

To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +1,050. Coming off a recent win at LIV Golf Korea, DeChambeau is my pick to win the PGA Championship. Quail Hollow is a course that rewards length off the tee, and no one leverages power like Bryson. The layout entices players to take aggressive lines — a challenge he welcomes — and pays back dividends to those who succeed. If his irons are dialed, I think he’s got this one in the bag. 

Sleeper pick: Jordan Spieth, +4,000. Recent flashes, like his final-round 62 at the Byron Nelson, hint that he’s not far off from a win. Sure, Quail Hollow favors the long ball, but it also requires imagination and grit, two things Spieth has in spades. If the putter heats up, don’t be surprised if he goes low. And with the career grand slam just out of reach, it could be the push he needs to get it done.

Kris McCormack 

To-win: Rory Mcllroy, +500. Rory has won four times at Quail Hollow. He also finished T22 when it hosted the 2017 PGA Championship. This is one of his favorite tracks — long, demanding and perfect for his aggressive driving.

Sleeper pick: Joaquin Niemann, +2,700. Niemann has been one of the most in-form players globally, securing his third LIV Golf victory of the year in April at Mexico City. Earlier in the season, he also clinched wins at LIV Golf Adelaide and Singapore, demonstrating his ability to perform under pressure and maintain consistency across different courses.

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Zephyr Melton 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +500. It’s not the sexiest pick, but it’s the most sensible. After being a bit off to start the year, Scottie found his old form two weeks ago in Texas. If he can continue to hit the ball like he did there, it’ll be major No. 3 for Scottie come Sunday evening.

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +12,000. Why not a little magic ahead of the Ryder Cup for the captain? Stranger things have happened.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Rory McIlroy, +500. Boring, I know. But I picked this way back in December, if that counts for anything. If you want to go a little deeper, Sungjae Im (+6,600) is also a solid play at Quail. 

Sleeper pick: Stephan Jaeger, +20,000. Big course. Big hitter. Jaeger finished 21st at last year’s Wells Fargo, where he shot a 65 in the second round, so he’s gone low in the past. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +1,050. I had Rory earmarked for this one before he won the Masters so I’ll zag a bit. Bryson has been playing good but not great golf over the past month. He blew leads in Miami, Augusta and Mexico before finally getting over the line in Korea. This course should suit him well, and he has been a fixture at majors over the past year. Easy to see the slightly less big golfer getting it done this week. If you want to look slightly down the board, I like Shane Lowry at +5,000.

Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +14,000. I picked Justin Rose as my Masters sleeper and that paid off. There were legitimate reasons for that selection. This time, I’m just going to go off vibes. Rickie hasn’t played well since a T18 at the Cognizant in early March. But he finished T5 the last time the PGA Championship was at Quail Hollow and has good history at the Wells Fargo Championship, including a win in 2012 and a fourth-place finish in 2019. No time like the present to turn back the clock.

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +500 If he plays so-so, he contends. If he plays well, he wins. The latter seems more likely. This is one of those rare cases where the odds are a pretty fair reflection of a guy’s actual chances. 

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +12,000. A past PGA Champ who clearly relishes big moments. A good opportunity for him to stir up chatter about his potential role as a Ryder Cup player-captain.

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Bob May didn’t win. 

But yet, here’s a story about him. Another one, in fact. So no, he said in a 2020 GOLF.com interview, he didn’t play the what-if game over his runner-up finish, after a playoff, at the 2000 PGA Championship.

“The only thing that would be different was the financial side of things,” May said. “I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but there were guys who came after me who won tournaments but who didn’t get nearly the publicity I got from finishing second.

“I have no regrets. That day is now stitched into the history of the game. I feel fortunate that I was part of it, and that 20 years later we’re still talking about it.”

Twenty-five years later, too. Why? As May suggested, you probably know the details.

The winner? Tiger Woods, which helped earn him the “Tiger Slam.” Earlier in 2000, he’d won the year’s second and third majors — the U.S. Open and Open Championship, respectively — the PGA gave him the fourth, and then he won the 2001 Masters. 

But was it nearly derailed by May? It was. In the final round at Valhalla, May fired a 66 to Woods’ 67 to force a three-hole playoff that was settled by a single shot. There’s more here, though. You know Woods and his accomplishments. As for May, though, he didn’t just not win at the PGA — he never won on the PGA Tour. 

A takeaway then?

Twenty-five years later, he remains one of the reasons — if not the reason — to scroll down the odds board as you try to find a winner at this week’s PGA. It’d be some nod to May if an underdog were to win at Quail Hollow. 

With that, let’s continue to mine. Below, members of our staff have each made a long-shot selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis.

2025 PGA Championship sleeper picks to watch 

Adam Christensen 

Sleeper pick: Russell Henley, +6000. There are not many golfers on Earth who have played more consistently than Russell Henley this year. The main concern in picking Henley is his lack of distance at a course that will favor the heavy hitters, but he has been so accurate this year that maybe he can overcome that. If he has a great week putting and chipping, he could steal a championship.

Connor Federico  

Sleeper pick: Max Homa, +8000. At Quail Hollow, he won his first Tour event at the 2019 Wells Fargo, and he dominated the 2022 Presidents Cup, finishing with four wins and no losses in his United States debut. Homa is overcoming some recent struggles, but a T12 finish at the Masters proves he can contend for a major championship. I like his odds considering all the success he’s had in Charlotte.

Jessica Marksbury

Sleeper pick: Max Homa, +8000. The man’s had an admittedly tough season thus far, but his bright spot to date was the Masters, where he finished T12. That gives me some hope for his performance this week, at a course where he’s played well in the past, winning the Wells Fargo Championship in 2019 and finishing T8 the past two years. If any track can help extricate Homa from the funk he’s currently in, it’s this one.

Maddi MacClurg  

Sleeper pick: Jordan Spieth, +4000. Recent flashes, like his final-round 62 at the Byron Nelson, hint that he’s not far off from a win. Sure, Quail Hollow favors the long ball, but it also requires imagination and grit, two things Spieth has in spades. If the putter heats up, don’t be surprised if he goes low. And with the career Grand Slam just out of reach, it could be the push he needs to get it done.

Kris McCormack 

Sleeper pick: Joaquin Niemann, +2700. Niemann has been one of the most in-form players globally, securing his third LIV Golf victory of the year in April at Mexico City. Earlier in the season, he also clinched wins at LIV Golf Adelaide and Singapore, demonstrating his ability to perform under pressure and maintain consistency across different courses.

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Zephyr Melton 

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +12000. Why not a little magic ahead of the Ryder Cup for the captain? Stranger things have happened.

Nick Piastowski 

Sleeper pick: Stephan Jaeger, +20000. Big course. Big hitter. Jaeger finished 21st at last year’s Wells Fargo, where he shot a 65 in the second round, so he’s gone low in the past. 

Josh Schrock

Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +14000. I picked Justin Rose as my Masters sleeper and that paid off. There were legitimate reasons for that selection. This time, I’m just going to go off vibes. Rickie hasn’t played well since a T18 at the Cognizant in early March. But he finished T5 the last time the PGA Championship was at Quail Hollow and has good history at the Wells Fargo Championship, including a win in 2012 and a fourth-place finish in 2019. No time like the present to turn back the clock.

Josh Sens

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +12000. A past PGA Champ who clearly relishes big moments. A good opportunity for him to stir up chatter about his potential role as a Ryder Cup player-captain.

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Rory McIlroy’s mood, three weeks ago at the pre-Zurich Classic press conference, was as easy-going as what you’d run into on Bourbon Street about a half-hour drive away. 

Coming off a breakthrough Masters win two weeks earlier, and now pairing up with longtime pal Shane Lowry at the PGA Tour’s lone team event, McIlroy was feeling good, despite a bit of a cold. And one Q&A exchange captured the vibe well. 

“Rory,” the reporter started, “I’d imagine a couple big goals that you may have formally set out for yourself at the beginning of the season have now been checked off. Will you wait until the end of the year to reestablish what goals you would have for the remainder of 2025? And Shane, you’re also going to be defending champion when we go back to Portrush [for the Open Championship]. What are some of your goals for 2025?”

Here, Lowry answered first. 

“I think Rory’s goals are — who cares anymore.”

Laughter then followed. He was joking. Of course, he’ll care, especially this week, at the PGA Championship, the next major after the Masters. 

Right?

Winning back-to-back majors is one thing. But doing so just over four weeks after winning your first Masters, winning your first major in 11 years and becoming just the sixth player to complete the career Grand Slam will be laborious. It’ll be something to wonder as you try to find a winner. 

Or not. McIlroy says he’s ready. 

Immediately, after Lowry’s crack, McIlroy said two words:

“I care.”

With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish.

On to our analysis. 

2025 PGA Championship picks to win 

Adam Christensen 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +500. Whoever wins the PGA Championship will make a ton of birdies, and Scottie Scheffler is hitting the ball so close to the hole right now it’s impossible for him not to make birdies. His game was ‘off’ to start the year, but he figured it out and is hitting Quail Hollow full of confidence. That’s dangerous for the rest of the field (outside of McIlroy, of course).

Connor Federico  

To-win: Ludvig Aberg, +1600. The Swedish star played his way into contention again at Augusta National. His putter was hot, and his driver was on fire. Although he has no professional history at Quail, the 25-year-old has too much talent to ignore. Justin Thomas was just 24 when he launched into stardom with his first major win here in 2017. I expect Ludvig to walk a similar, multiple-major-winning road, starting this week by lifting the Wanamaker.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +500. I’m actually hoping for an epic Scheffler-McIlroy Sunday duel, but ultimately casting my vote for the World No. 1. Fresh off a big win in Texas and with a week of rest, Scottie will be the man to beat at Quail Hollow, and I believe this will be the week where he gets his major mojo back on track.

Maddi MacClurg  

To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +1050. Coming off a recent win at LIV Golf Korea, DeChambeau is my pick to win the PGA Championship. Quail Hollow is a course that rewards length off the tee, and no one leverages power like Bryson. The layout entices players to take aggressive lines — a challenge he welcomes — and pays back dividends to those who succeed. If his irons are dialed, I think he’s got this one in the bag. 

Kris McCormack 

To-win: Rory Mcllroy, +500. Rory has won four times at Quail Hollow. He also finished T22 when it hosted the 2017 PGA Championship. This is one of his favorite tracks — long, demanding and perfect for his aggressive driving.

Zephyr Melton 

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To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +500. It’s not the sexiest pick, but it’s the most sensible. After being a bit off to start the year, Scottie found his old form two weeks ago in Texas. If he can continue to hit the ball like he did there, it’ll be major No. 3 for Scottie come Sunday evening.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Rory McIlroy, +500. Boring, I know. But I picked this way back in December, if that counts for anything. If you want to go a little deeper, Sungjae Im (+6600) is also a solid play at Quail. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +1050. I had Rory earmarked for this one before he won the Masters so I’ll zag a bit. Bryson has been playing good but not great golf over the past month. He blew leads in Miami, Augusta and Mexico before finally getting over the line in Korea. This course should suit him well, and he has been a fixture at majors over the past year. Easy to see the slightly less big golfer getting it done this week. If you want to look slightly down the board, I like Shane Lowry at +5000.

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +500 If he plays so-so, he contends. If he plays well, he wins. The latter seems more likely. This is one of those rare cases where the odds are a pretty fair reflection of a guy’s actual chances. 

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Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the men’s Olympic Golf competition, which gets underway Thursday outside of Paris, France. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

The FedExCup Playoffs are only two weeks away, but the 2024 golf season has one more major-type event up its sleeve to keep us plenty engaged, and that is the chase for Olympic gold this week in Paris, France.

Golf in the Olympics first existed over 100 years ago but it was only 2016 in Rio de Janeiro when we saw it first reinserted back into the lineup. England’s Justin Rose took gold that year. Henrik Stenson won the silver medal and Matt Kuchar got the bronze.

At the 2020 Games in Tokyo (actually played in 2021), Xander Schauffele won the gold medal and Rory Sabbatini took the silver. Part of a seven-player playoff, C.T. Pan won bronze.

Here we are in 2024 at Le Golf National, an excellent course less than 20-miles outside of Paris that has been the host course of the DP World Tour event, the Open de France, since 1991. The golf course also hosted the Ryder Cup in 2018. Specifically, it is the Albatros Course at Le Golf National. It is a shorter course at less than 7,200 yards and plays to a par 71 with three par-5s and 11 par-4s. The fairways are narrow and undulated, the rough is thick and the bentgrass greens are larger than average and also feature a lot of undulation.

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With the amount of water hazards, sand bunkers, undulation and with the European setting, the course looks quite a bit like a mix between a Florida track and a Euro links design. I did use one Florida course and one European links design in my comp courses this week, that being Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational) and Royal Troon (2024 Open Championship). This course does not have the length of Bay Hill but the emphasis on Driving Accuracy and Bogey Avoidance along with the thick rough and large greens all matches up. With Royal Troon, we can also note the similarities for Driving Accuracy and the undulated fairways. Bogey Avoidance remains true as does the need for successful Scrambling.

In addition to Driving Accuracy, Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance, I also looked at Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass), Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Total (Shorter Courses), Hole Proximity from 100-175 yards, and par-4s measuring 350-450 yards. In addition to Bay Hill and Royal Troon, I also considered TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic), East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship) and TPC Scottsdale (WM Phoenix Open) as comparable courses.

Before we dive into this week’s selections, I should point out that there is no 36-hole cut at this event. The field is made up of 60 players playing all four rounds. First place, second and third will win gold, silver and bronze, respectively. If any of the medal places are tied after 72 holes, there will be a playoff.

I have played the following five players for an outright win — or gold medal — but there is a market for a podium finish, meaning betting on a player to medal. There are also the traditional finishing position markets; top-5, top-10, top-20, etc.

Collin Morikawa (11-1)

I feel like this golf tournament is a little bit different from a standard Tour event, a Signature Event, or a major championship. It is different when representing your country. It is different playing for a gold medal versus a green jacket. Having won six tournaments this season, including the Masters, will Scottie Scheffler be hell-bent on winning gold? Already having won gold and having won two majors this season, will Xander Schauffele be chomping at the bit for more? Certainly they both very well could be but I feel like there might be hungrier players out there in this field, hungrier specifically for Olympic glory, and one of which is Morikawam, who also happens to be a great fit for this golf course. Morikawa has flirted with victory seven times this season but is yet to cash in. He’s been on the heels of both Scheffler and Schauffele multiple times. He has not finished worse than 16th in his last eight starts. He has finished 3-4-14-16 in the four major championships this season. This feels like his last shot at slaying the grand prize on a global stage and he has voiced his desire and determination to get back to winning “major” golf tournaments. Having come so close so many times this year, Morikawa gets one more chance to make a mammoth splash and I believe he’s buying in. We spoke about narrow fairways and the statistical needs at this golf course. Morikawa ranks top five in this field over the last 24 rounds for Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, Good Drives Gained and on the par-4s measuring 350-450 yards. He’s also 13th in Scrambling, ninth in SG: Putting (Bentgrass) and second for SG: Total on courses measuring less than 7,200 yards. For me, he checks out statistically, mentally and comes here in good form. Now we wait to see if manifests.

Jon Rahm (12-1)

I am still seeing some 11s on Rahm but I have also seen odds lower than 9-1 pop up in response to the Spaniard’s win last Sunday at LIV UK. Anything 10-1 or better is a nice number in my opinion. I played Rahm in-game a couple of different times last week at the LIV event in England and then again immediately after the win, to win again here in Paris. It has been a grind for Rahm this season. The transition to the LIV environment has not been easy. He’s finished top 10 in every event without a win until last Sunday. His performance in the majors had been very disappointing until finally putting together a strong showing at Royal Troon. I liked what I saw out of him at the Open Championship, finishing seventh, and then he was brought to tears by the win last week. I believe he has turned a corner and like Morikawa, Rahm now has one more chance to beat “the rest of the world” on a huge stage, proving that he is still very much “Jon Rahm” and despite playing on a different circuit, he hasn’t gone anywhere. Rahm finished 10th here at the Open de France in 2017, fifth in 2018 and beat Tiger Woods in singles at the 2018 Ryder Cup. I like the fact that he has experience and success at this golf course, I like his current form and his frame of mind. He also has an incredible history at TPC Scottsdale.

Shane Lowry (27-1)

A similar theme here with Lowry. A guy that has come up just short this season and in recent weeks. A full-of-pride countryman who would absolutely love to win a gold medal for Ireland. He did it at Royal Portrush in 2019, winning the Open Championship on his home soil. He was the flag bearer for Ireland at the opening ceremonies last week and spoke openly about how much it meant to him. This guy can taste it and I expect his golf game to follow suit. Lowry has to feel like he left something on the table two weeks ago at The Open after being the 36-hole leader and ultimately finishing sixth after the weather helped dash his hopes in the third round. He has experience at this golf course, finishing 16th here in 2018. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks top 10 in this field for Bogey Avoidance, Good Drives Gained, par-4s from 350-400 and Hole Proximity from 125-150. Not only is Lowry one of the world’s best links players, but the Florida swing has typically been where he’s at his best as well. He finished third at Bay Hill earlier this season. In addition to the outright win, maybe this is one worth a try for a podium finish or a top-10 finish play too.

Corey Conners (37-1)

I believe this is another example of country pride possibly being in play. Canada will be on the world stage this fall for the President’s Cup and Conners will almost certainly be a part of that team – but a gold medal wouldn’t hurt his chances either. For a guy that has had a number of top-10 finishes in major championships, winning gold would be incredible. As I alluded to earlier, I feel this medal carries something different in terms of an accomplishment, and maybe it resonates even more with the international players than it does with the Americans. Like Lowry, this might be another one to add a finish position play to the outright win wager. Conners’ European links game has been improving quite a bit in a short period of time. He hasn’t missed a cut at the Open Championship in four straight years and just finished 25th at Royal Troon. He hasn’t missed a cut at the Scottish Open in three straight tries and finished 19th and 10th in the last two editions. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks top six in this field for SG: Approach, Driving Accuracy, par-4s from 400-450 yards and Hole Proximity from 125-150.

Thomas Detry (70-1)

Nobody in this Olympic field has more experience on this golf course than Detry, who is representing Belgium. As a former full-time member on the DP World Tour, Detry has played 18 tournament rounds of golf here at the Open de France. He’s made the cut in four out of five tries and has finishes of 25-16-8-35. He’s especially good on the par-4s and in Hole Proximity from 125-175 yards. He ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting. I like the current form as well. Beginning with the PGA Championship, where he finished fourth, he hasn’t missed a cut in his last six starts, including a 14th-place finish at the U.S. Open. In his last start at the Scottish Open, he shot four rounds in the 60s and finished 26th. He’s absolutely a quality player that has sniffed the winner’s circle at big events. I feel like 70-1 is a fair price and I’ve seen a few ticks higher. This is one where I too might add a top-20 finish play.

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The post Open Championship betting guide: 7 picks our expert loves this week appeared first on Golf.

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Open Championship, which gets underway Thursday in Troon, Scotland. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

The final major championship of the 2024 golf season is upon us, and my favorite of the four majors is here. It is the 152nd playing of the Open Championship and it will be held at Royal Troon with 158 players scheduled to tee it up on the coast of Ayrshire, Scotland, on Thursday.

The last time we saw The Open at Troon was in 2016. There was a severe weather bias between the early and late wave start times on Thursday and Friday and Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson took full advantage. They were the final pairing on Sunday and no other player in the field was even close. Stenson beat Mickelson in the best “Ali vs. Frazier” type duel I’ve ever witnessed on a golf course. Stenson bettered Lefty by three shots to win it. J.B. Holmes finished in third place, 14 shots off the pace.

Popular golf course renovation specialist Martin Ebert has been Royal Troon’s consulting architect for quite some time. He’s gotten his hands dirty on at least a couple of occasions on this property, most recently adding roughly 200 yards of length versus what we saw in 2016. This true seaside-links design is a par 71 and now stretches to 7,385 yards. The first handful of holes are chances to score as they typically play with the wind. The middle stretch becomes more difficult as the golf course turns to put the wind into the players, and then there is the final stretch where one will want to hang on for dear life and gladly welcome making par.

There are penal pot bunkers everywhere. The fairways are undulated, offering very few flat lies, and off the fairways one will find rough, wispy heather grasses and gorse bushes. On top of all that, the greens are small. The eighth hole is known as “The Postage Stamp” for its extremely tiny putting surface. It is only a 125-yard par-3, but 3 will be a good score all week.

I looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this week as well as Fairways Gained. I favor Driving Accuracy this week over distance but a good “Total Driver” is ideal. I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach and Greens in Regulation Gained. With the extra small putting surfaces, hitting the greens in regulation will be key – and that also leads us to look hard at Scrambling for when these greens are missed. I also looked at Bogey Avoidance – and don’t forget the putting. The greens will be much slower than we are used to on the PGA Tour.

Courses that compare this week is a little bit tougher than usual because it is not all that often we have a full-blown links design in play. I used Pebble Beach for its coastal, links-type style and small greens. Last year’s Open venue, Royal Liverpool, is similar and has also been worked on by Ebert. Southern Hills (2022 PGA Championship) has some similarities in the layout as do The Summit Club (2021 CJ Cup) in Las Vegas and St. George’s Golf & Country Club (2022 Canadian Open). When Stenson won in 2016, he was incredibly accurate off the tee and one of the premier iron players/ball strikers in the world. That crosses over with TPC Scottsdale in my mind. And finally, I took into account Hamilton Golf & Country Club, host to the 2019 and 2024 Canadian Opens, as it too has seen extensive renovation work put in by Ebert.

So, who will it be that leaves Scotland this week as the Champion Golfer of the Year? Here are my picks.

Rory McIlroy (+850)

The timing would be incredible were this to happen, and I believe it is very possible. Yes, he had a brutal finish last month at the U.S. Open but let’s also look at it like this: he was right there and should have won. He defended his title admirably last week at the Scottish Open, finishing fourth. In his career, McIlroy has finishes of 3-1-5-4-2-3-6 at The Open, with the last two being sixth and third. He was fifth here in 2016 and his lone win happens to have come at Royal Liverpool. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks top-5 in this field for SG: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Ball Striking and Bogey Avoidance. He is 11th in Scrambling and 10th in Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards. McIlroy has also won at Hamilton and St. George’s in Canada, and at The Summit in Las Vegas. I believe he is going to be right there once again and feel his chances of converting are better than once in 8.5 tries. In addition to the outright win, I also played a top-10 finish.

Collin Morikawa (19-1)

I made this wager a few weeks ago and the number has since come down, which I am OK with. It looks as if pricing around 16-1 is still available. Morikawa has seen a resurgence in his career this season. His attitude, his determination to win again, to be there with the Schefflers and the McIlroys, he has been truly impressive ever since finishing third at Augusta. He feels very similar to Stenson of 2016 with the ball striking, scrambling ability and accuracy off the tee. Of course, he has an Open Championship to his name and that came at Royal St. George’s, where Ebert also serves as a consulting architect. Given what we have seen out of Morikawa since April, he has to be on my card for an outright win and a top-20 finish.

Tyrrell Hatton (28-1)

The Englishman won for the first time in over three years less than a month ago on the LIV circuit in Nashville. He finished fifth here at Royal Troon in 2016 and has since recorded finishes of sixth, 11th and 20th coming last year at Royal Liverpool. He is one of the finest wind players in the world and has the short game to hang with just about anyone. Hatton took 18th at the 2021 CJ Cup, 13th at the 2022 PGA Championship and has finished sixth and 15th at TPC Scottsdale. I believe we are getting a very fair price on a guy that has a real shot this week. I played the top-20 finish here as well and on the rest of my selections too.

Tommy Fleetwood (30-1)

I mentioned this last week, that I already had a ticket on Fleetwood. The price has since come down on him as well. Anything better than 20-1 is pretty good and 25-1 or better is ideal. The man has been knocking on the door quite a bit at this championship with finishes of 10-4-2-12-27. He’s made six cuts in a row at The Open and has finished 10-4-2 in his last three trips. He also has a win earlier this season on the DP World Tour at the Dubai Invitational. He also fits the Stenson mold well with elite iron play in windy conditions and incredible accuracy off the tee. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks eighth in this field for Scrambling, 16th in Greens in Regulation Gained, 13th in Hole Proximity from 125-150 yards and 10th from 175-200 yards.

Gear

Shane Lowry (45-1)

The Irishman won the Open Championship on his home soil at Royal Portrush in 2019. Fleetwood finished runner-up, by the way, and Portrush is another course in The Open rota that also leans on Ebert as an architectural consultant. Lowry fits the formula here of accuracy off the tee, iron play, elite scrambling ability and one of the best in the wind. Lowry has finishes of sixth and 16th at TPC Scottsdale, 23rd at Southern Hills and 14th at Pebble Beach. He was runner-up at the Canadian Open at Hamilton in 2019 and 10th at St. George’s in 2022. He ranks No. 1 in this field over the last 36 rounds in Hole Proximity from 125-150 yards.

Corey Conners (60-1)

The Canadian doesn’t jump off the page as a links player but he is an elite ball striker and his results on this side of the world have been improving. He just finished 13th at the Scottish Open last week and has now made the cut at The Open three straight years, finishing as high as 15th in 2021. Putting and short game have always been the issue for Conners but The Open tends to bring all types of putters into the mix with its slower green speeds. Stenson was never a great putter and of course did just fine here eight years ago. The ball striking, greens in regulation, approach play numbers are all top-10 in this field for Conners. I believe a top-20 finish has a great chance and if that’s the case, an outright win is very possible.

Emiliano Grillo (300-1)

Conners might be a long shot but this is truly a “long bomb.” Grillo has always been one of the better ball strikers in the world and he’s improved his putting dramatically in the last few seasons – so much that across all the putting stats this week over the last 24 rounds on slow greens, Grillo ranks second in this field. He finished 12th here in 2016, 12th again in 2021, and was sixth last year at Royal Liverpool. I would not be surprised by another top-20 finish for the Argentinian.

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