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It was a good week for the column, certainly making for a few fireworks over the Fourth of July holiday — despite managing to find yet another way to narrowly miss out on the outright winner.

We had a number of long shots fare quite nicely at the John Deere Classic. Ben Kohles (80-1), Ryo Hisatsune (50-1), Kevin Yu (80-1) and Tyler Duncan (500-1) each made a lot of noise, but ultimately it was Chris Gotterup winning for the third time on Tour this season. And that makes for a very clean transition to this week as we make our way abroad to North Berwick, Scotland, for the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club — where Gotterup is your defending champion.

The Scottish Open is a co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour, and each tour roughly has 75 players in the field. A twist this year is that there are LIV circuit players participating via DP World Tour status. Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Reed, David Puig, Victor Perez and Tom McKibben will join in on the festivities in what will be the final prep before next week’s Open Championship, the final major of the season, at Royal Birkdale in England.

Tom Doak designed the Renaissance Club in 2008. It is definitely links style but is more of a manufactured, Americanized links design. The course was carved out of a pine forest, which is unique, but it still maintains the sandy, dunes, windswept links look in which we are familiar. The Renaissance Club will serve as the host course for this tournament for the eighth year in a row. It is a par-70 with three par-5s, five par-3s, and 10 par-4s. The golf course tips out at just a shade under 7,300 yards. The greens are slow and fescue-based just like we typically see at an Open Championship. They are large surfaces and relatively easy to hit in regulation. The fairways are on the wider side but present nasty pot bunkers and are bordered by thick rough.

I do believe that distance outweighs accuracy here off the tee — to a degree — so I have looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, along with Stroked Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Birdies or Better Gained, and hole proximity from 200-plus yards.

The subject of correlated courses is a challenge this week because we do not see a links-type test on a regular basis. Courses requiring similar strengths and sharing some layout commonalities are the Country Club at Jackson (Sanderson Farms Championship); Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open); Memorial Park (Houston Open), which is another Tom Doak design; and Vidanta Vallarta, home to the Mexico Open.

Ludvig Aberg (22-1)

Maybe Aberg’s greatest strength is his ability to drive the ball long and straight. This propelled him to victory at Torrey Pines and has helped him finish eighth and fourth here in North Berwick. Over the past 24 rounds, Aberg ranks 11th n this field for SG: Off the Tee, 14th for SG: Approach, and eighth in hole proximity from 200-plus yards.

Nicolai Hojgaard (45-1)

Similar to Aberg, Hojgaard has finished runner-up at Torrey Pines and fourth and sixth here at the Scottish Open — and his game too is largely fueled by excellent work off the tee. The short game fires as well as he ranks 55th on Tour in scrambling and is 51st for SG: Putting.

Kristoffer Reitan (53-1)

The European theme continues — and why not a Norwegian? We have seen their fans celebrate Viktor Hovland recently at the Travelers Championship, and we have seen their football club knock Brazil out of the World Cup. Reitan is becoming a force, winning a Signature Event back in May at Quail Hollow Club, a big boy golf course, similar to Torrey Pines. He was 13th here in Scotland last season, shooting three of four rounds in the 60s. Reitan ranks seventh in this field for SG: Off the Tee over the past 24-rounds, 16th for SG: Approach and 15th in birdies or better percentage.

Kevin Yu (225-1)

As mentioned earlier, Yu fared quite well last week at the John Deere Classic, finishing 15th and shooting 66 on three of the four days. He won for us a few years back at the Sanderson Farms Championship and he was 34th here at the Scottish Open last year. Over the past 24 rounds, Yu ranks 14th in this field for SG: Off the Tee and is fifth for birdie or better percentage. At the Deere last week, Yu ranked 20th in that field for SG: Putting. He will be in the mix again this week if the putter stays hot.

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He’s Scottie Scheffler. 

But he’s playing what you can call un-Scottie Scheffler-like golf. Which is concerning. But then again, maybe that’s good enough. 

Back and forth we go. Do you back him this week at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club? Or do you stay away? He’s the odds leader. But is he the best pick? To help, here are both sides. 

Back Scottie Scheffler! 

The basics: He’s the world No. 1. He’s a four-time major winner. Should he win this week, he would complete the career grand slam. 

The stats: He’s won once this season. And finished runner-up three times. And finished third twice. He’s ranked first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total, and strokes gained: tee to green. He’s ranked seventh in SG: off the tee; 17th in SG: approach the green; fourth in SG: around the green; and 18th in SG: putting. 

His thoughts after Memorial, his last tournament, where he tied for 12th: “Overall, I would say pretty frustrating, but the way I played the last two days I definitely feel a lot better with kind of where things are at than I did coming off the course on Friday. I guess I should say in the middle of the round Friday. I started hitting some good shots on the back nine Friday, and then I played decent the last couple days. I just wasn’t sharp enough to make the big move that I needed to make.” 

What’s he think of Shinnecock? “It’s one of those courses where there’s a ton of space out there, but the areas you have to hit into are quite small. So looking at like tee balls where some of ’em are somewhat blind and you’re kind of hitting over that like higher fescue type grass. Then going into some of the greens, the greens are going to play really small, especially if they get firm, and it should be a really challenging week.”

Stay away from Scottie Scheffler!

The stats: He hasn’t won since January. He tied for 14th at the PGA Championship. He’s ranked 38th on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring average. Here are his ranks in putting from 6 feet or shorter: 6 feet, 146th; 5 feet, 52nd; 4 feet, 100th; 3 feet, 146th. 

The thought at the Memorial on the 16th hole in round one: Frustration. Here’s the story. 

What does Brandel Chamblee think: “His game is off and so he’s provided opportunity to the best players in the world,” the Golf Channel analyst said in a teleconference. “He’s still the man to beat, but he is no longer the man that can’t be beat.”  

The conclusion! 

Don’t overthink it. Golf isn’t linear. If Shinnecock places a premium on iron play to set up putts, Scheffler is a great pick, and you may catch him at a good price based on some of the recent questions. But, as Chamblee noted, he isn’t a slam dunk. 

With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win and a sleeper selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis. 

2026 U.S. Open expert picks to win, sleepers to watch

Alan Bastable 

To-win: Cameron Young, +1,800. Just about all of the favorites — Scottie, Rory, Bryson, Ludvig — give me pause for one reason or another (spotty form, mostly) … except for one: Cameron Young. Chalk up the local(ish) boy for his first USO title.

Sleeper pick: Adam Scott, +10,000. He didn’t play in the 1896 U.S. Open at Shinny — it just feels that way. Look for Scotty to make some noise in what will be his 100th (!) major start.

Josh Berhow 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. It’s still early, but it could be a rainy — and more importantly, windy — few days on Long Island, which means I start to look at guys who have played well in Open Championships. That narrows it down to two names for me: Scottie Scheffler (last year’s Open winner) and Matt Fitzpatrick, who tied for fourth last year and has been one of the Tour’s three best players this season. That brings me to Scottie, who is due, and who wins to complete the career Grand Slam.

Sleeper pick: Cameron Smith, +8,000. Again, back to those tricky conditions, which shouldn’t scare off Cam Smith. He’s had a rough couple of years but showed us at the PGA Championship that he still has the ability to take it low.

Adam Christensen 

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood +2,200. This is more of a heart pick than a head pick, but he is up there for “best player without a major” status — and why not get one at a place where he shot the best round of his career? Fleetwood is an absolute flusher and he just flashed some form at the Memorial, which is enough for me to pick him heading to a place where a good approach game will be rewarded.

Sleeper pick: Alex Fitzpatrick +9,000. Before last week’s Canadian Open, Alex Fitzpatrick played five PGA Tour events this season and finished inside the top 10 four times, three of which at tournaments that were not all-out birdie fests. Confidence is huge, so for a long shot, I’ll take a guy riding higher than anyone else at this price point right now.

James Colgan 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. I’ve thought about this. I’ve grinded on it. I’ve questioned the intelligence of picking the best player of the past five years to win the event he MOST wants to win while his game seems to be in the midst of a rare lull. It all seems a little bit too silly — too nonsensical to work out. But then I remember that Scottie’s entire career has been defined by his capacity to win anticlimactically. It’s pretty much what he does. And winning the career grand slam less than 12 months after setting up the dominoes for it — before any of us in the media can begin the long journey of questioning his competitive integrity or aura or “ability to win the big one?” It strikes me as too perfect NOT to happen. Add in the fact that Shinnecock has historically picked all-time winners, and I’m officially out of alternative options.

Sleeper pick: David Puig, +12,500, The last time the U.S. Open went to Shinnecock, we witnessed an all-time final round by a young, ascending player with all-world ability. His name was Tommy Fleetwood. He finished second, but the performance is etched into my memory of the kind of brilliance that can come from brashness under the Shinny spotlight. I like Puig’s chances.

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Tommy Fleetwood, +2,200. I had Scottie Scheffler penciled in here for the longest time, but while I think he’s still the undisputed No. 1 player in the world, his game isn’t as bulletproof as it once was. Instead I’m going to go with Fleetwood, who was a few strokes away from the playoff two weeks ago at the Memorial. He’s got the best short game on the PGA Tour this season and seems to have figured things out with a new putter. Not to mention, he nearly shot 62 here last time.

Sleeper pick: Sahith Theegala, +15,000, Are we serious with these odds? Sahith had a bad year in 2025 but has responded with multiple top-10s so far this year. I could see him putting it all together at a U.S. Open setup that rewards great wedge play.

Lifestyle

How often favorites win tournaments (and when to bet on them)

By: Nick Piastowski

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. I just can’t quit the World No. 1. Sure, he hasn’t had his “best stuff” of late —  but his worst finish of the year was a tie for 24th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and that was back in March. The U.S. Open is the game’s toughest test and Scottie has all the tools to win major No. 5 — and complete the career grand slam.  

Sleeper pick: Russell Henley, +4,500. These odds are a tad bit strong for a true sleeper, but I like Henley’s credentials heading into the Open. He’s the most accurate driver on Tour, and hitting fairways will be huge at Shinnecock. Plus, he’s in the midst of an awesome season, with a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge and four top-10 finishes and nine top-25s in 13 events.

Maddi MacClurg  

To-win: Matt Fitzpatrick, +2,500. To win at Shinnecock Hills, you need precision off the tee, elite ball-striking and the ability to scramble when greens are inevitably missed — all strengths for Fitzpatrick. If the putter gets hot, I think the Englishman will be in the mix on Sunday.

Zephyr Melton 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. Shinnecock will reward those who control their golf ball best, and no one on the planet is more skilled at that than Scottie Scheffler. Give him the career grand slam. 

Sleeper pick: Shane Lowry, +6,600. Does Shane Lowry qualify as a sleeper? Whatever. It’ll be windy, so those links-golf skills should come in handy. I can see the Irishman making a run.

Jake Morrow  

To-win: Ben Griffin, +6,600. Solid start to the year, has recently got some gear locked in, and with fairways being so friendly out there I think his potential issues with accuracy off the tee can be mitigated, allowing for some more aggressive approach play.

Sleeper pick: Sungjae Im, +12,500. He’s playing better golf than people may think, and same thing as Ben — the course allows for more aggressive approach play, which is Sungjae’s sauce.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Wyndham Clark, +4,000. Let’s go with one of the hottest players in golf. If the fairways are indeed open, that benefits him, too. 

Sleeper pick: Gary Woodland, +12,500. If you’ve read this space before, you’ll know I love a good storyline. And a Woodland win at the U.S. Open would be the best storyline. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood +2,200. Finished second at Shinnecock in 2018, thanks to a blistering final round. Coming off a tie for fourth at the Memorial. Has the approach play and short game needed to hang on at Shinnecock. A lot of people will be looking at Tommy to win the Open when he goes home to Royal Birkdale, but he gets it done a month earlier and wins a proper U.S. Open test.

Sleeper pick: Adam Scott +10,000. Playing in his 100th consecutive major, I expect Scott to play smart, disciplined golf and be a factor on the weekend. Outside of a missed cut at Aronimink, Scott has been playing well, including a tie for fourth at Doral and a tie for 12th at the Memorial. He was in the mix on Sunday at Oakmont last year and I think it’ll be a similar story on Long Island.

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. The runner-up at the PGA was a sign that he’s still one of the elite big-game hunters in golf. Shinny requires elite ball striking and imagination around the greens — which he has in spades. If the putter even remotely shows up, nobody beats him. 

Sleeper pick: David Puig, +12,500. This will be his coming-out party. Like Rahm, he’s an elite ball striker but may have the best short game in the world. He’s long, putts it great, and if his iron play is in order, you will see his name right in the mix. This kid is a DAWG. 

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The life of being on the radar, for someone previously under it, has taken some recalibration. 

“It’s been crazy, yeah, just kind of thrown into the spotlight, thrown into a different territory than what I’ve been accustomed to,” J.J. Spaun said. “So it’s been a little — it’s been fun, but also a challenge at the same time trying to balance, like, what’s it like to be an elite golfer now — considered an elite golfer now. A little bit of a disorienting kind of situation for me. I’ve always kind of been the underdog, one that’s been able to hide in the shadows and background and stuff, but now it’s, like, at the start of the year it was, like, this guy’s got to show up, this guy’s got to — you know, he’s a top-10 player in the world. Like, this guy’s got to be playing good.

“So I put too much pressure on myself to start the year based off of what I did last year. But try to let it go and remember that I can play really well if I just get out of my own way. Kind of relaxing and trying not to control the outcome too much has really helped me settle down kind of the start of the spring here.” 

This week at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, Spaun returns to where he broke through a year ago — the U.S. Open. Prior to last year’s win at Oakmont, he’d won just once, and according to golfodds.com, he started the tournament at 150-1 odds. But he finished the week as the only player under par, he’s since won again, and, as he noted, he’s a top 10 player in the world. 

The question is then, could last year’s sleeper winner repeat? In U.S. Open history, there have been only seven players who have gone back-to-back. 

Then again, Spaun did say that Shinnecock reminded him a bit of Oakmont. 

“I think it will be cool,” he said of defending. “I only defended once. It was just — it almost seems like a homecoming. You kind of like relive your success, and everyone’s kind of like happy to see you, and people want to talk to you and there’s a lot of attention and focus on you. 

“But yeah, I don’t know. I think it’s something that I got to enjoy, because I don’t think a lot of guys, I mean, it’s hard to be able to defend a major championship or, I mean, a major event. So I’m just going to try to enjoy it, continue to work hard and stick to my process and add ’em up at the end and see what happens.”

With that, members of our staff have each made a long-shot selection below to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis.

2026 U.S. Open sleeper picks to watch

Alan Bastable 

Sleeper pick: Adam Scott, +10,000. He didn’t play in the 1896 U.S. Open at Shinny — it just feels that way. Look for Scotty to make some noise in what will be his 100th (!) major start.

Josh Berhow 

Sleeper pick: Cameron Smith, +8,000. Again, back to those tricky conditions, which shouldn’t scare off Cam Smith. He’s had a rough couple of years but showed us at the PGA Championship that he still has the ability to take it low.

Adam Christensen 

Sleeper pick: Alex Fitzpatrick +9,000. Before last week’s Canadian Open, Alex Fitzpatrick played five PGA Tour events this season and finished inside the top 10 four times, three of which at tournaments that were not all-out birdie fests. Confidence is huge, so for a long shot, I’ll take a guy riding higher than anyone else at this price point right now.

James Colgan 

Sleeper pick: David Puig, +12,500. The last time the U.S. Open went to Shinnecock, we witnessed an all-time final round by a young, ascending player with all-world ability. His name was Tommy Fleetwood. He tied for second, but the performance is etched into my memory of the kind of brilliance that can come from brashness under the Shinny spotlight. I like Puig’s chances.

Jack Hirsh 

Sleeper pick: Sahith Theegala, +15,000, Are we serious with these odds? Sahith had a bad year in 2025 but has responded with multiple top-10s so far this year. I could see him putting it all together at a U.S. Open setup that rewards great wedge play.

Jessica Marksbury

Sleeper pick: Russell Henley, +4,500. These odds are a tad bit strong for a true sleeper, but I like Henley’s credentials heading into the Open. He’s the most accurate driver on Tour, and hitting fairways will be huge at Shinnecock. Plus, he’s in the midst of an awesome season, with a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge and four top-10 finishes and nine top-25s in 13 events.

Zephyr Melton 

Sleeper pick: Shane Lowry, +6,600. Does Shane Lowry qualify as a sleeper? Whatever. It’ll be windy, so those links-golf skills should come in handy. I can see the Irishman making a run.

Jake Morrow  

Sleeper pick: Sungjae Im, +12,500. He’s playing better golf than people may think, and the course allows for more aggressive approach play, which is Sungjae’s sauce.

Nick Piastowski 

Sleeper pick: Gary Woodland, +12,500. If you’ve read this space before, you’ll know I love a good storyline. And a Woodland win at the U.S. Open would be the best storyline. 

Josh Schrock

Sleeper pick: Adam Scott +10,000. Playing in his 100th consecutive major, I expect Scott to play smart, disciplined golf and be a factor on the weekend. Outside of a missed cut at Aronimink, Scott has been playing well, including a tie for fourth at Doral and a tie for 12th at the Memorial. He was in the mix on Sunday at Oakmont last year and I think it’ll be a similar story on Long Island. 

Johnny Wunder  

Sleeper pick: David Puig, +12,500. This will be his coming-out party. Like Rahm, he’s an elite ball striker but may have the best short game in the world. He’s long, putts it great and if his iron play is in order, you will see his name right in the mix. This kid is a DAWG. 

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“The green complexes there are extremely difficult.” 

“The fairways are very generous.”

“It blows there pretty strong.” 

By clicking on “2026 U.S. Open picks to win: Here’s who our staff is betting on at Shinnecock,” you’re expecting, of course, to learn whom we like this week at the year’s third men’s major, and you’ll find that below. But how we arrive at that is based a bit on what we hear — and we’ve heard some things from players who’ve previously made their way to the Long Island, N.Y., course.  

The first three paragraphs of this story are some of what we’ve picked up — and below is more. As always, hopefully the thoughts, along with our selections, will assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. 

Said Scottie Scheffler: “I hadn’t been there prior. That was my first time on property. It was kind of what I expected. I had heard some rumors about how difficult the greens were. I was a little surprised at the width of the fairways, but the green complexes there are extremely difficult, and I think that’s where the greatest challenge comes from. The rough, also, was a really good penalty, I think, for the width. Once you start missing fairways out there, you have no chance. But the fairways are generous enough to where it provides you some opportunity and that way it’s just that the green complexes are extraordinarily difficult, and so they can put the pins wherever they want and make the scores as high as they could possibly want ’em to be.”

What to make of it: Wide fairways and difficult green complexes — so a player with fair length and a good approach game should succeed. 

Said Rory McIlroy: “Shinnecock looks good. The fairways are very generous. They’re more generous than they were in 2018. But the first cut of rough is 5 inches long. So it’s like the first cut is maybe three paces wide and then it gets into the fescue. So if you miss the fairway even by a yard, you’re going to — but you shouldn’t. The fairways are very, very generous. So if you miss the fairway, I feel like you deserve a bad lie.

“And the greens are — it’s still quite green. … The greens are rolling around 11, 11.2, something like that. And I really don’t think they need to get much faster. I think if they can keep them at that green speed, they can get them firm, and they can use the hole locations that they want to use without having some of the struggles that they have had the last couple of U.S. Opens. So to me, it’s all about them just maintaining the green speeds really where they are and not getting them too out of hand, and I think it will be a great week. If it’s set up the right way, I think it’s one of the best championship tests in the country. I mean, it’s an amazing golf course.”

What to make of it: One of the best championship tests — so a grinder should do well. 

Said J.J. Spaun: “It’s kind of like Oakmont. But I feel like any U.S. Open course you’re kind of like intimidated. But it was cool being on property. It’s pretty obvious that it blows there pretty strong. So I think understanding that it’s — you’re going to have to control trajectories and stuff is going to be a big deal around that place. But yeah, from what they said at the media thing, how the fairways are going to be pretty generous, they’re not going to try to trick it up, it’s going to be — Shinnecock’s going to be played how it should be or as it was intended to with the design.” 

What to make of it: Strong winds — so a solid ball-striker should contend. 

With that, here are our picks. 

2026 U.S. Open picks to win 

Alan Bastable 

To-win: Cameron Young, +1,800. Just about all of the favorites — Scottie, Rory, Bryson, Ludvig — give me pause for one reason or another (spotty form, mostly) … except for one: Cameron Young. Chalk up the local(ish) boy for his first USO title.

Josh Berhow 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. It’s still early, but it could be a rainy — and more importantly, windy — few days on Long Island, which means I start to look at guys who have played well in Open Championships. That narrows it down to two names for me: Scottie Scheffler (last year’s Open winner) and Matt Fitzpatrick, who tied for fourth last year and has been one of the Tour’s three best players this season. That brings me to Scottie, who is due, and who wins to complete the career Grand Slam.

Adam Christensen 

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood +2,200. This is more of a heart pick than a head pick, but he is up there for “best player without a major” status — and why not get one at a place where he shot the best round of his career? Fleetwood is an absolute flusher and he just flashed some form at the Memorial, which is enough for me to pick him heading to a place where a good approach game will be rewarded.

James Colgan 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. I’ve thought about this. I’ve grinded on it. I’ve questioned the intelligence of picking the best player of the past five years to win the event he MOST wants to win while his game seems to be in the midst of a rare lull. It all seems a little bit too silly — too nonsensical to work out. But then I remember that Scottie’s entire career has been defined by his capacity to win anticlimactically. It’s pretty much what he does. And winning the career grand slam less than 12 months after setting up the dominoes for it — before any of us in the media can begin the long journey of questioning his competitive integrity or aura or “ability to win the big one?” It strikes me as too perfect NOT to happen. Add in the fact that Shinnecock has historically picked all-time winners, and I’m officially out of alternative options.

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Tommy Fleetwood, +2,200. I had Scottie Scheffler penciled in here for the longest time, but while I think he’s still the undisputed No. 1 player in the world, his game isn’t as bulletproof as it once was. Instead I’m going to go with Fleetwood, who was a few strokes away from the playoff two weeks ago at the Memorial. He’s got the best short game on the PGA Tour this season and seems to have figured things out with a new putter. Not to mention, he nearly shot 62 here last time.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. I just can’t quit the World No. 1. Sure, he hasn’t had his “best stuff” of late —  but his worst finish of the year was a tie for 24th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and that was back in March. The U.S. Open is the game’s toughest test and Scottie has all the tools to win major No. 5 — and complete the career grand slam.  

Maddi MacClurg  

To-win: Matt Fitzpatrick, +2,500. To win at Shinnecock Hills, you need precision off the tee, elite ball-striking and the ability to scramble when greens are inevitably missed — all strengths for Fitzpatrick. If the putter gets hot, I think the Englishman will be in the mix on Sunday.

Zephyr Melton 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. Shinnecock will reward those who control their golf ball best, and no one on the planet is more skilled at that than Scottie Scheffler. Give him the career grand slam. 

Jake Morrow  

To-win: Ben Griffin, +6,600. Solid start to the year, has recently got some gear locked in, and with fairways being so friendly out there I think his potential issues with accuracy off the tee can be mitigated, allowing for some more aggressive approach play.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Wyndham Clark, +4,000. Let’s go with one of the hottest players in golf. If the fairways are indeed open, that benefits him, too. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood +2,200. Finished second at Shinnecock in 2018, thanks to a blistering final round. Coming off a tie for fourth at the Memorial. Has the approach play and short game needed to hang on at Shinnecock. A lot of people will be looking at Tommy to win the Open when he goes home to Royal Birkdale, but he gets it done a month earlier and wins a proper U.S. Open test.

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. The runner-up at the PGA was a sign that he’s still one of the elite big-game hunters in golf. Shinny requires elite ball striking and imagination around the greens — which he has in spades. If the putter even remotely shows up, nobody beats him. 

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J.J. Spaun could win. 

Or Xander Schauffele. Or Bryson DeChambeau. Or any of the players at this week’s PGA Championship not named Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy. 

Or not.

Over the past year-plus, the majors have been Scheffler and McIlroy — and everyone else. The duo have won four of the past five (and five of the past nine), and you’d be OK in thinking that it’ll be the world’s two highest-ranked players against the field at the PGA. But Scheffler and McIlroy haven’t won every major. After all, there might be a Spaun, who won last year’s U.S. Open. 

Who could that be at Aronimink Golf Club just outside of Philly? Some help is below, where’ll you find a list of the top five players in the odds below Scheffler and McIlroy, along with to-win and sleeper selections from members of our staff. 

2026 PGA Championship top five players in the odds list, minus Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy

– Cam Young, +1,200. With Young, you’re getting this year’s winner of the Players Championship and the Cadillac Championship, and a player who tied for third at the Masters. He’s also ranked second this year in strokes gained: total. 

– Jon Rahm, +1,600. Rahm has finished no worse than a tie for eighth in LIV Golf play this year, and he’s won twice. 

– Xander Schauffele, +1,800. Schauffele finished third at the Players and tied for ninth at the Masters. He’s also won two of the past nine majors. 

– Bryson DeChambeau, +2,000. DeChambeau has won twice on the LIV Golf circuit this year. He also won the 2020 and 2024 U.S. Opens. 

– Ludvig Aberg, +2,000. Aberg has finished in the top eight or better in five of his past six tournaments. He’s also ranked third this year on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total.  

What about the sleepers? Some thoughts on those players listed exactly at 100-1

– Alex Fitzpatrick: He won the Zurich Classic with his brother, Matt. A week later, he tied for ninth at the Cadillac Championship. A week after that, he finished fourth at the Truist Championship. 

– Gary Woodland: He won this year at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He’s also the emotional favorite, after he revealed earlier this year that he’s fighting PTSD following a brain procedure. 

– Thomas Detry: He’s fourth this year in the LIV Golf standings. 

– Ben Griffin: He won three times last year. Two weeks ago, he finished third at the Cadillac Championship. 

– Harris English: He’s missed one cut in 12 starts this year on the PGA Tour. 

– Jason Day: Day has missed two cuts in 11 starts this year on the PGA Tour. 

2026 PGA Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch

Josh Berhow 

To-win: Cameron Young, +1,200. I can’t remember a major where I last thought the list of potential winners was so slim, but that’s where I landed here with the top three. The way Rory, Scottie and Cam Young are playing, I can’t get myself to look further down the odds list. I’ll pick Cam, whose Sunday 74 at the Truist was nothing more than an outlier.

Sleeper pick: Kristoffer Reitan, +8,000. Don’t overthink it — he just won on Sunday and is still a long shot! All of these guys are good — but it’s hard not to like the one who was just better than everyone through 72 holes.

James Colgan 

To-win: Brooks Koepka, +4,000. A major championship on a big, burly, Northeast golf course? Yep, sounds like an ideal setting for Koepka, whose game has shown some sneaky signs of life.

Sleeper pick: Daniel Berger, +22,500. I probably wouldn’t take him to win this golf tournament, but it wouldn’t shock me if he delivered a surprisingly competitive performance in Philly.

Dylan Dethier   

To-win: Cameron Young, +1,200. It’s Cameron Young. It’s Cameron Young! The secret’s out. Look, it’s been fun to watch Young put his best stuff on display, from the Ryder Cup to the Players to the Masters to Miami a couple weeks ago. But I do feel a twinge of the-band-I-like-just-went-platinum. I was listening to Young’s old stuff, just so you guys know. Anyway, if you give me any old-school Northeast golf course right now, I will give you Cameron Young as a surefire contender. A tie for fourth at Oakmont was a sign of things to come. That Ryder Cup statement was too. Here comes Cameron.

Sleeper pick: Matt McCarty, +15,000. McCarty is playing really, really well. Don’t sleep on him! And let’s plunge much deeper for Ben Polland (+200,000), a talented club pro who could clock a top 40 here if all goes well.

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Cameron Young, +1,200. Cameron Young got his first PGA Tour win at a classic Donald Ross course, so I wouldn’t be shocked if one of the game’s two hottest players got another one at Aronimink. Would feel like a very satisfying peak to this heater he is on.

Sleeper pick: Jordan Spieth, +8,000. Let’s have some fun, shall we. Grand slam, here we come.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +450. This is a pattern for me, it seems — picking the World No. 1 to win a major. But apparently I’m in the minority in this Cameron Young-hyped group! Scheffler needs no introduction here, but I’ll lay out a few creds anyway: He’s the defending champ, his worst finish of the year is a tie for 24th, and his past three finishes were runner-ups (Masters, RBC Heritage, Cadillac Championship). C’mon, that’s gotta light a fire! He’s winning this week.

Sleeper pick: Min Woo Lee, +6,000. Aronimink feels like a course where Min Woo can shine and play to his off-the-tee strengths. Plus, he’s been trending up recently, finishing tied for 18th at the Cadillac and tied for 14th at last week’s Truist.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Ludvig Aberg, +2,000. Over his past six tournaments, Aberg has posted five top 10s, and he’s ranked third this year on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total. He’ll win a few majors. This week, he wins his first. 

Sleeper pick: Gary Woodland, +10,000. This would be one of the better stories in golf — but Woodland has also played solid golf this year. He’s posted four top 25 finishes, including a win. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Cameron Young, +1,200. You can make the case that Cam Young has been the second-best golfer in the world since he switched golf balls and caddies almost a year ago. Hit the shots down the stretch to win at TPC Sawgrass and just ran over the field at Doral. Had the lead on Sunday at the Masters and watched Rory zip by him. Much like when McIlroy blew the 2011 Masters and responded to win the next major, I think Cam’s time comes at Aronimink. 

Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +5,000: I’m just going to go back to the sleeper well with Fowler. He has been playing consistently good golf this season and has rediscovered the feel with his putter. Carded top-10s at the RBC Heritage and Doral. Could easily see him contending in Philly with his iron game.

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. This is the Occam’s razor equivalent of golf handicapping. He’s still the best player in the world. In his past five majors, his worst finish is a tie for seventh. He is guaranteed to contend. He will probably win. He is the favorite for a reason. 

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +9,000. His heart might still be broken from the Ryder Cup, but his game has been coming together nicely lately. And we know he relishes the big stages. 

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,600. He’s still in my heart and mind the main contender to dethrone Scottie. The trick is getting him to cook in the majors, which typically comes down to the putter. If his putting is just serviceable and he strikes it normal, he’s a serious threat. He’s going to win a major this year. 

Sleeper pick: Patrick Cantlay, +4,500. Great ballpark for him, especially if the scores are low, which I’ve heard they might try to encourage. Pat is still the quiet assassin he’s always been. If he can get into the top of the board early in the week, my hunch is he stays there till the end. 

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Fifteen years ago, a dollar bet on Keegan Bradley would’ve won $125.

Ten years ago, a buck on Jimmy Walker would’ve earned the same return.

Five years ago, that wager on Phil Mickelson would’ve brought home $250. 

Hmm. 

Could the underdog-winning-every-five-years trend continue this week at the PGA Championship? The odds are, well, long. For various reasons, players aren’t favorites, and what’s happened here is very likely coincidental. 

Then again, who doesn’t like a good story line?

Should you have some buy-in to that thought, members of our staff have each made a long-shot selection to assist you. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis.

2026 PGA Championship sleeper picks to watch 

Josh Berhow 

Sleeper pick: Kristoffer Reitan, +8,000. Don’t overthink it — he just won on Sunday and is still a long shot! All of these guys are good — but it’s hard not to like the one who was just better than everyone through 72 holes.

James Colgan 

Sleeper pick: Daniel Berger, +22,500. I probably wouldn’t take him to win this golf tournament, but it wouldn’t shock me if he delivered a surprisingly competitive performance in Philly.

Dylan Dethier   

Sleeper pick: Matt McCarty, +15,000. McCarty is playing really, really well. Don’t sleep on him! And let’s plunge much deeper for Ben Polland (+200,000), a talented club pro who could clock a top 40 here if all goes well.

Jack Hirsh 

Sleeper pick: Jordan Spieth, +8,000. Let’s have some fun, shall we. Grand slam, here we come.

Jessica Marksbury

Sleeper pick: Min Woo Lee, +6,000. Aronimink feels like a course where Min Woo can shine and play to his off-the-tee strengths. Plus, he’s been trending up recently, finishing tied for 18th at the Cadillac and tied for 14th at last week’s Truist.

Nick Piastowski 

Sleeper pick: Gary Woodland, +10,000. This would be one of the better stories in golf — but Woodland has also played solid golf this year. He’s posted four top 25 finishes, including a win. 

Josh Schrock

Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +5,000: I’m just going to go back to the sleeper well with Fowler. He has been playing consistently good golf this season and has rediscovered the feel with his putter. Carded top-10s at the RBC Heritage and Doral. Could easily see him contending in Philly with his iron game.

Josh Sens

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +9,000. His heart might still be broken from the Ryder Cup, but his game has been coming together nicely lately. And we know he relishes the big stages. 

Johnny Wunder  

Sleeper pick: Patrick Cantlay, +4,500. Great ballpark for him, especially if the scores are low, which I’ve heard they might try to encourage. Pat is still the quiet assassin he’s always been. If he can get into the top of the board early in the week, my hunch is he stays there till the end. 

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Jordan Spieth is talking about smoking chicken. 

He said he’s average at it. “Probably a 15 handicap,” he thought. But he knows his way around his smoker. 

After all, he says the activity reminds him of what he’s going through with his golf swing. 

“I was just kind of thinking,” Spieth said Monday, “I was smoking chicken in the fall on a big smoker I have and it got up to 155 quickly and then takes awhile. I was like, man, this kind of feels like — I was working on stuff and I was — it kind of feels like what I’m trying to do in the swing. I go play and it’s a little bit out of the barriers that we call sustainable. Kind of outside the margins that we call OK.

“So, I don’t know, I kind of was just thinking about it one day and came to me.

“But yeah, it seems to be — I don’t know how — if it’s that way for everybody and just seemed that way for me right now where, you know, it’s there, it’s there. It’s like close. It’s matching what I want to do. It feels good and it’s producing right stuff.

“And then, you know, if it just gets — it’s just not quite consistent enough yet to be able to be contending week in and week out.

“But I know what to do and how to get there. It’s just I have to stay the course and just trust that it will happen.”

Could it this week, at the PGA Championship? The question is one of the biggest heading into the year’s second major. Should it, Spieth would become the seventh men’s golfer to complete the career grand slam — and bring PGA Championship bettors a good return, as he’s currently listed around 80-1.   

Then again, to continue with the theme, Spieth might just be blowing smoke. Remember, this will be his 10th attempt at the slam, after winning the 2015 Masters, the 2015 U.S. Open and the 2017 Open Championship. (The PGA was moved to May in 2019.) 

With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish.

On to our analysis. 

2026 PGA Championship picks to win

Josh Berhow 

To-win: Cameron Young, +1,200. I can’t remember a major where I last thought the list of potential winners was so slim, but that’s where I landed here with the top three. The way Rory, Scottie and Cam Young are playing, I can’t get myself to look further down the odds list. I’ll pick Cam, whose Sunday 74 at the Truist was nothing more than an outlier.

James Colgan 

To-win: Brooks Koepka, +4,000. A major championship on a big, burly, Northeast golf course? Yep, sounds like an ideal setting for Koepka, whose game has shown some sneaky signs of life.

Dylan Dethier   

To-win: Cameron Young, +1,200. It’s Cameron Young. It’s Cameron Young! The secret’s out. Look, it’s been fun to watch Young put his best stuff on display, from the Ryder Cup to the Players to the Masters to Miami a couple weeks ago. But I do feel a twinge of the-band-I-like-just-went-platinum. I was listening to Young’s old stuff, just so you guys know. Anyway, if you give me any old-school Northeast golf course right now, I will give you Cameron Young as a surefire contender. A tie for fourth at Oakmont was a sign of things to come. That Ryder Cup statement was too. Here comes Cameron.

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Cameron Young, +1,200. Cameron Young got his first PGA Tour win at a classic Donald Ross course, so I wouldn’t be shocked if one of the game’s two hottest players got another one at Aronimink. Would feel like a very satisfying peak to this heater he is on.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +450. This is a pattern for me, it seems — picking the World No. 1 to win a major. But apparently I’m in the minority in this Cameron Young-hyped group! Scheffler needs no introduction here, but I’ll lay out a few creds anyway: He’s the defending champ, his worst finish of the year is a tie for 24th, and his past three finishes were runner-ups (Masters, RBC Heritage, Cadillac Championship). C’mon, that’s gotta light a fire! He’s winning this week.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Ludvig Aberg, +2,000. Over his past six tournaments, Aberg has posted five top 10s, and he’s ranked third this year on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total. He’ll win a few majors. This week, he wins his first. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Cameron Young, +1,200. You can make the case that Cam Young has been the second-best golfer in the world since he switched golf balls and caddies almost a year ago. Hit the shots down the stretch to win at TPC Sawgrass and just ran over the field at Doral. Had the lead on Sunday at the Masters and watched Rory zip by him. Much like when McIlroy blew the 2011 Masters and responded to win the next major, I think Cam’s time comes at Aronimink. 

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. This is the Occam’s razor equivalent of golf handicapping. He’s still the best player in the world. In his past five majors, his worst finish is a tie for seventh. He is guaranteed to contend. He will probably win. He is the favorite for a reason. 

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,600. He’s still in my heart and mind the main contender to dethrone Scottie. The trick is getting him to cook in the majors, which typically comes down to the putter. If his putting is just serviceable and he strikes it normal, he’s a serious threat. He’s going to win a major this year. 

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Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2025 Wyndham Championship, which gets underway Thursday at Sedgefield Country Club in North Carolina. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both free-to-play and daily fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

If you felt a bit of a lull after the season’s final major championship, I hope that you’re over it because the excitement is just beginning here for the next couple of months in the world of golf.

The Wyndham Championship, held at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, N.C., marks the final tournament of the PGA Tour regular season. At the tournament’s conclusion, the top-70 players in the FedEx Cup standings will advance to the FedExCup Playoffs, beginning next week at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tenn. Those players who find themselves in the top 100 in the standings after the FedEx Fall maintain their active status on the circuit for the 2026 season. Players that find themselves ranked in the top 50 at the conclusion of the Tour Championship qualify for the 2026 Signature Events.

Oh, and there’s that friendly little golf get together in late September they call the Ryder Cup that still has plenty of open spots left on the line too.

Yes, there is a lot happening on the links and it begins this week at Sedgefield Country Club which is a relatively short par-70 Donald Ross design, stretching to just better than 7,100 yards. Narrow, tree-lined fairways approach smaller-than-average, heavily undulated greens that feature the traditional Ross run-off areas, making scrambling a key element this week. Driving accuracy is more important than length off the tee and short-iron play from 100-175 yards is a huge part of the winning formula. Ball strikers and putters tend to flourish here and so do players that play well on par-4s measuring 400-450 yards, of which eight of the 12 on the course fall.

Features

The Hooters near Augusta National was the anti-Masters, yet had lore all of its own

By: Michael Bamberger

Course history and crossover success with other golf courses similar to Sedgefield is a very strong component to the handicap this week. Take Webb Simpson, who has won here, at TPC Sawgrass, and at Harbour Town, home of the RBC Heritage. Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner, Si Woo Kim, Billy Horschel — it is a long list of players who have done well on all of the comp courses this week. I also looked at TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic), Sea Island (RSM Classic) and another Donald Ross design, East Lake Golf Club, where we will be in a few weeks for the Tour Championship.

Robert MacIntyre (35-1)

It feels like Bobby Mac is a bit under the radar this week. Matt Fitzpatrick is the tournament favorite and has been playing very well but we can get the Scotsman at nearly twice the price. Both players are well inside the top 70 in the standings but Fitzpatrick does have some work to do if he plans on playing on the European side for the upcoming Ryder Cup. MacIntyre hasn’t missed a cut since the Masters. He was sixth at the Charles Schwab, runner-up at the U.S. Open and seventh in his last start at the Open Championship. He also finished ninth earlier this season at the Players Championship and took 17th last month at the Travelers. He has everything I want here: accuracy off the tee, short game, approach play and he makes a lot of birdies.

Lucas Glover (39-1)

Very much a horse for this course, winning here two years ago and finishing top 10 or better at all of our correlated courses, including a win at the John Deere Classic in 2021. Glover has been playing great golf this season, finishing third at the Players and most recently ninth at the Travelers, fifth at the John Deere, and 23rd at the Open Championship. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks top 16 in this field for Hole Proximity between 100-175 yards and is No. 1 from 125-150. Get that putter warmed up, Lucas.

Harry Hall (40-1)

No need to beg for a hot putter with Harry Hall, who ranks fourth in this field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) over the last 24 rounds and is No. 1 in Birdies or Better Gained. Like Glover, Hall too is one of the very best in the field for Hole Proximity from 100-175 yards. He hasn’t missed a cut in nearly five months and just recently finished ninth at the Travelers.

Akshay Bhatia (40-1)

Here’s another player who is excellent on approach, is a great putter and is accurate off the tee. He was tied for the 54-hole lead last week in Minnesota before unraveling with a round of 75 on Sunday. I expect a bounce back here for a guy, like Glover, who finished third earlier this season at TPC Sawgrass.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (55-1)

Being South African, he is not a part of the Ryder Cup conversation but he is trying to make the postseason, currently ranked 74th in the FedEx Cup, and he’s been playing very well. Bezuidenhout has finished top 16 three times in his last eight starts and was 20th just last week at the 3M Open. He is accurate off the tee, 12th in this field on the 400-450 yard par-4s over the last 24 rounds and ranks second for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). He’s never missed a cut in four tries here at the Wyndham and is five-for-five in cuts made at the RBC Heritage. He’s twice finished 13th at the Players Championship and has been runner-up at the John Deere Classic.

Andrew Novak (66-1)

We mentioned a mix of ball strikers and putters and while Novak has been absolutely of the ball-striker type for a few seasons now, the putter has begun to fire as well. He went from ranking 100th on Tour in 2024 to 36th this season for SG: Putting. Novak grew up in Raleigh, N.C. – about 90 minutes from Greensboro – and went to Wofford College, about three hours from Sedgefield Country Club, so he is plenty familiar with the golf course and the surroundings. Earlier this season, Novak lost in a playoff at the RBC Heritage.

Chris Kirk (95-1)

We are jumping right back on the Chris Kirk train this week after narrowly missing out last month at the Rocket Classic when he lost in a playoff. Kirk has won at Sea Island, been fourth at East Lake and has multiple top-10 finishes at Harbour Town and three top-15 finishes at TPC Sawgrass. He is accurate off the tee, great on approach and one of the game’s best from 100-150 yards. Kirk currently sits 73rd in the FedEx Cup standings. He has twice finished top 15 and once runner-up in his last five starts.

Who Chirp Golf users are picking this week

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Rory McIlroy says he would love to win an Open Championship at Royal Portrush, which is in McIlroy’s home country of Northern Ireland, and an Open at St. Andrews and a U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. His aspirations speak to the appeal of winning a major — not only are you coming out on top in one of golf’s biggest events, but because they’re most often held at the world’s best venues, you’re winning at a gem. 

He then added this:

“I’d love to win a PGA at PGA Frisco — not.”

McIlroy laughed (and PGA of America folks likely cringed at the dagger directed at the new course built just outside of their headquarters). But there’s maybe a bigger takeaway here as we descend into Open Championship week at Portrush. 

McIlroy seemed in good spirits, and his mood had been a topic since he won the Masters in April and completed the career grand slam. As he spoke more last week, he also sounded motivated, which had also been in question since he left Augusta. The event matters to him. As does the venue. 

As does making some amends. Five years ago, when Portrush hosted its second Open, McIlroy shot an almost unfathomable first-round 79, and he went on to miss the cut. 

“There’s venues in the game that just mean a little bit more,” McIlroy said. “Frisco might get there one day, who knows. But yeah, and I think, as well, having Portrush from home and the experience I had there last time, you know, I want to — the Friday was amazing, the Thursday, not too much.

“It’s a little like [Novak] Djokovic won the Olympics last year, he knew that was going to be his final chance, and you saw the emotion and you saw how much it meant to him. You think about it, and you can’t pretend that it’s not there. But when you are on the golf course, you just have to go out there and play as if you’re not playing at home and just play as if it’s another golf tournament.

“But yeah, it obviously is a little more — it has a little more, like, emphasis. There’s something extra there.”

With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win and a sleeper selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis. 

2025 Open Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch 

Alan Bastable 

To-win: Matt Fitzpatrick, +5,500. Just a couple of months ago, Fitzpatrick described his game as “rubbish.” But at the Masters and, a week later, at Harbour Town, he said he found something. He didn’t get into specifics, but whatever Fitzy has unearthed, it’s working. In his past five starts, he has three top-20 finishes, including a T8 at the PGA, and he played beautifully at the Scottish Open. He’s primed for a big week in Portrush.

Sleeper pick: Dustin Johnson, +18,000. Great links player and carded the round of the week (second-round 65) at LIV Andalucia. Feels like one of these major weeks where he might rewind the clock and remember deep down he has more raw talent than most of his peers.

Josh Berhow 

To-win: Robert MacIntyre, +2,400. Karma is coming for Robert MacIntyre. The good kind, that is. He was the runner-up at the U.S. Open last month but warmed our hearts with his genuine reaction to J.J. Spaun’s winning putt. Now it’s his turn, and it’s at a place where he tied for sixth in his major debut back in 2019. He’s had a great season but hasn’t been able to win yet. Maybe that first victory (and first major) comes this week.

Sleeper pick: Sepp Straka, +4,500. The good? He has two wins this season. The bad? He’s missed the cut in all three majors this year. Although that’s why we can properly place him in the sleeper category. He tied for 22nd at the Open last year and tied for second the year before. He’s also coming off a solid week at the Scottish Open. He’s a good one to take a flier on.

Dylan Dethier   

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood, +2,200. Feels like the ultimate square play this week; he finished second the last time the Open was at Portrush, he finished second in his final start before heading over the pond and there’s a massive cohort of people who’d absolutely love for him to win. But he’s also an incredibly well-rounded player, one of the best in the world, and although he’s known in the states for not having a win, he’s done plenty of winning on other continents. The sentimental play may also be the right one. (Sidenote: I’ve been told by several friends to stop picking Xander every time, as it looks lazy, but just assume we’re tipping him every major, too. Also intrigued by Sepp Straka (66-1) and Daniel Berger (100-1) as Sunday contenders.)

Sleeper pick: Harry Hall, +11,000. Hall has been quietly putting together a hell of a summer; he enters the Scottish Open on a run of six consecutive top-25s. Will his elite putting translate across the pond? It sure did when he qualified for this event last week. Some others: I’ve been happily on Matthew Jordan the past couple Opens and he’s finished T10 back-to-back years; at 400-1, he’s worth consideration. Add in Lucas Glover (250-1) to round out your long shots. Add Daniel Berger and Sepp Straka if you’re looking for a few midfielders. Happy hunting!

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Rory McIlroy, +650. It seems as though McIlroy has been searching for a new dream to chase for the past few months after he finally got over the hump at the Masters to complete the career grand slam. If there was ever something to motivate him to win another major, it would be playing one at Portrush. It really just comes down to whether his iron play is like it was at Augusta and the start of the year, or like it was at Oakmont.

Sleeper pick: Ben Griffin, +6,600. Seems as though everyone forgot that Ben Griffin was nearly as hot in April and May as Scottie Scheffler. I like his game for links golf.

Kris McCormack 

To-win: Rory McIlroy, +650. Rory’s back at Portrush, and this time, he’s got a ton of momentum. He finally got the Masters, he’s playing with confidence, and the crowd will be behind him. Feels like the stars might actually line up for a second major win this season.

Sleeper pick: Robert MacIntyre, +2,400. MacIntyre’s been trending all year and knows how to handle links golf. He’s tough, confident and not afraid of the big pressure moments. Exactly the kind of guy who could crash the party at Portrush.

Zephyr Melton 

News

Four experts on how to bet on PGA Tour golf like a professional gambler

By: Nick Piastowski

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +480. Not overthinking this one. Scottie may not be the best value pick, but he’s the most sensible. If he’s on the correct side of the draw, he’ll be in the mix come Sunday.

Sleeper pick: Ryan Fox, +6,500. He’s got two wins already this year and hasn’t finished outside the top 30 since early May. Why not bet on the Kiwi as a long-shot pick?

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood, +2,200. Fleetwood bags his first major. He was runner-up at Portrush in 2019, and his form suggests he’ll at least contend this week.  

Sleeper pick: Padraig Harrington, +25,000. At these odds, why not? The Irishman’s motivated. He’s in form, too, after his U.S. Senior Open win. And he’s a two-time Open winner. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. We saw signs of life from Rahm at Quail Hollow and he is still one of the best players in the world. Add in his great Open record and I think we’re ripe for a weekend that sees Rahm thrust himself back into the spotlight.

Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +18,000. Rickie has been quietly playing some pretty good golf outside of an MC at the Rocket Classic. He’s a good links player who I think still has one or two quality major showings left in him. Why not now?

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +480. It’s been a few weeks since Scheffler won a big event. He’s due. 

Sleeper pick: Marc Leishman, +12,500. By his own account, he’s been playing some of the best golf of his life. He showed some good form at Oakmont. And like a lot of Aussies, he’s no stranger to the bouncy links golf of the Open. 

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. The Apex Predator is starting to look comfy again with this new putter, and if he can get into the final group come Sunday, nobody beats him.

Matt Ziance 

To-win: Viktor Hovland, +2,300. History doesn’t lie. Ten of the past 11 Open champs have finished T3 or better in at least one of their five previous events. Hovland finished third at Oakmont last month, and the Oslo native is ready to add ‘Major Champion’ to his resume.

Sleeper pick: Ryan Fox, +6,500. With eight career international wins under his belt and his two PGA Tour wins earlier this season, Fox is in prime condition to shock and awe at Royal Portrush. The New Zealand native will feel right at home with the course (and weather) next week. Don’t be surprised if Ryan Fox lifts the Claret Jug on Sunday. 

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The post 2025 U.S. Open expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Oakmont  appeared first on Golf.

The post 2025 U.S. Open expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Oakmont  appeared first on Golf.

Bryson DeChambeau says he plans to keep things simple. Execute shots. Find fairways. Avoid three-putts. Stay out of the rough. 

Of course, if only it were that simple, especially at vaunted Oakmont. 

DeChambeau even vouched for the difficulty of the course, at the start of a YouTube video he’d shot there. 

“The fairways are incredibly narrow, the greens are so fast they inspired the creation of the Stimpmeter, and the rough is more than 5 inches deep,” he said. “This course doesn’t just challenge your game, it challenges your sanity.”

And yet, as you try to find a winner for this week’s U.S. Open, you may not need to look further than DeChambeau. He’s in form, having won once on LIV Golf this season and posting a pair of top five finishes in the year’s first two majors (tied for fifth at the Masters, and tied for second at the PGA Championship). He’s long, which should neutralize some of Oakmont’s defense — wedges out of the rough will be easier than any other club. 

And he can call on history. DeChambeau’s won a pair of U.S. Open titles, on two other sanity-challengers: Winged Foot in 2020, and Pinehurst No. 2, last year. 

“Going back-to-back would be great,” he said. “Three in a row would be an even better accomplishment.

“So it is in the back of my head. How am I preparing for it? Just like I would any other tournament.” 

Simple enough. 

With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win and a sleeper selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis. 

2025 U.S. Open expert picks to win, sleepers to watch

James Colgan

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,750. This feels like a five-man race: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Schauffele. For value’s sake, I’ll take the guy with the longest odds of the group.

Sleeper pick: Phil Mickelson, +30,000. In honor of the “high likelihood” that this is Lefty’s last U.S. Open, let’s sprinkle a little on him to make things interesting in his pursuit of the career grand slam.

Dylan Dethier   

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +2,000. Don’t let him throw you off the scent with his first non-top-20 major finish in three-plus years or a surprisingly poor putting performance at Memorial. If Xander can find the groove with his driver, he has as good a chance as anybody to win this thing. Don’t forget: He’s played eight U.S. Opens in his life, he’s never finished worse than 14th, and he has six top-7s. Book this man for a win, cover your bases with a top 10.

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +10,000. Granted, he’s not in mega-longshot territory. (If you want to go further down the board, Cameron Young at 150-1 should make you think about some top-10 numbers, and Max Greyserman in 250-1 territory is even more exciting, and Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is worth a look, too.) But Keegan is playing better than you’d think, he’s driving the ball like a stallion and Oakmont is just close enough to the Northeast to give him the vibes he found in an Aronimink win all those years ago. Who better to challenge for the U.S. Open than the U.S. Ryder Cup captain …?

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Collin Morikawa, +2,100: Guys who hit it straight off the tee and in the proper place on the greens will do well at Oakmont. Morikawa fits the bill. You could argue so does Scottie Scheffler, but I’m trying to change things up.

Sleeper pick: Justin Rose, +8,500. 85-to-1 for the guy who nearly kept Rory McIlroy from winning the Grand Slam is criminal. Rose has won two of his 11 PGA Tour titles in the great commonwealth of Pennsylvania, including his only major down the PA turnpike at Merion.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. How can I go with any other player? Scottie is back in alpha mode, and a U.S. Open at Oakmont — golf’s toughest test on the game’s toughest course — will identify the most complete player as champion. That’s Scottie. Third leg of the career grand slam comin’ up!

Sleeper pick: Sam Burns, +7,500. If the greens are in fact running at 14+ on the Stimpmeter, good putters will prevail, and Sam is among the best on Tour. Plus, he has a pretty good U.S. Open record: T27, T32 and T9 in his past three appearances.

Zephyr Melton 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. No need to overthink this one. Scottie is back to his dominant form, and so long as he brings his B-game, he’ll be a factor on Sunday. And if he is in the hunt, who’s going to outduel him? So far, the answer has been no one. 

Sleeper pick: Ben Griffin, +5,500. The dude has been on a heater. Why not throw a little money on him as a long-shot pick? 

Nick Piastowski 

Lifestyle

How often favorites win tournaments (and when to bet on them)

By: Nick Piastowski

To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +750. With high rough, give me the guy who’s hitting wedges into the greens. It’s hard to bet against Scottie Scheffler, but I’m predicting a DeChambeau repeat. 

Sleeper pick: Dustin Johnson, +12,000. The form hasn’t been there. But why not place a nickel on the guy who won the last time the U.S.Open was played at Oakmont?

Josh Schrock

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. All Scottie has done lately is win. With the rust from his ravioli injury fully behind him, he has reasserted himself as the dominant force in professional golf. On a track that is going to reward those who play smart, safe golf, Scheffler is the best option to tame Oakmont. At the very least, he is unlikely to take himself out of the equation by compounding his mistakes. I almost went with Jon Rahm here, but at this point, not picking Scheffler feels like malpractice. 

Sleeper pick: Justin Rose, +8,500. Last time the U.S. Open was at Oakmont, Jim Furyk finished T2. I think there will be at least one old lion hanging around on the weekend in Western Pennsylvania. Rose seems to have finally nursed his wounds from his Masters loss, and I think he’ll find a way to be in contention come Saturday and Sunday. I’d also look at Jason Day at +8,000.

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +255. I’ve been trying to think of a good reason not to take the best player in the world, but I’m not clever enough to come up with one. The guy rarely has an off week, and even when he does, he contends. There’s not another player in the field you can say that about.

Sleeper pick: Denny McCarthy, +11,000. The fairways are wider at Oakmont than they were when DJ won in 2016 and the greens are larger. Driving and iron play still matter a lot, of course. But the biggest test is going to come on greens that famously run as slick as skating rinks. Putting will be at a premium. So if we’re looking for a dark horse, why not a guy who rolls it as well as pretty much anyone?

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. The big Spaniard is due to close one of these out again, and IF HE PUTTS, Oakmont is a perfect layout for him. I also think he’s getting tired of not being in the who’s-the-best convo these days. He’s going to make us all remember who he is.

Sleeper pick: Tommy Fleetwood, +3,250. Oddly, it’s his iron play that has failed him recently so if that’s even remotely good, I feel like this could be his time.

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