The Players Championship kicks off on Thursday at TPC Sawgrass’ Stadium Course, which returns after a one-year hiatus since last year’s event was canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic. Who will claim the PGA Tour’s premier event come Sunday night? Our staff names its picks to win and sleepers to watch.
Players Championship staff picks to win
Alan Bastable: Viktor Hovland, +2,800. Barring a weekend slip-up at Bay Hill last week, Hovland is as hot as any player in the game, with four top-five finishes, including a win, in his past six starts. He hits greens (ranked 23rd on Tour), makes birdies in bunches (9th) and knows how to score (10th) — a recipe for success at the Stadium Course.
Josh Berhow: Collin Morikawa, +2,200. He’s coming off a victory and played well in his one round (which was wiped out last year) at the Players. The key to TPC Sawgrass is finding fairways and hitting greens, and the best young ball-striker in the game is the perfect fit. He’s struggled putting in the past but was sharp two weeks ago at the WGC, and if he can be even close to that good on the greens again, he’s going to contend.
James Colgan: Hideki Matsuyama, +4,000. Oh how quickly we forget Hideki’s 63 in the opening round of last year’s Players. Had the Tour not stopped play, it’s quite possible Matsuyama could have entered this year’s tournament the returning champion (and to think he hasn’t won since!). I like Hideki to finish what he started this week.
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Dylan Dethier: Justin Thomas, +2,000. He’s too good to have odds this long, and there are glimmers of hope despite a lackluster start to 2021. If he drives it in the fairway, expect him to contend.
Jessica Marksbury: Dustin Johnson, +1,200. I don’t normally pick the favorite, but I am this week. Hard to deny DJ’s stats this year as a whole, even if he doesn’t have the BEST record at TPC Sawgrass. He did have a T5 in 2019, so that’s enough justification for me.
Nick Piastowski: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, +7,500. I’m following the money on this one. According to our friends at oddschecker.com, Bezuidenhout, as of Monday, has received the most bets of anyone over the past week. He also shot an impressive seven under in his one round last year.
Tim Reilly: Tony Finau, +2,200. This bet is half with my heart, half with my head. There’s no arguing that Finau is playing as well as anyone in golf these days. There’s also no arguing he’s struggled to finish since his lone victory five years ago. This is it. This is the week. My heart and my head are coming together to tell me this is the pick. I believe in you, Tony.
Josh Sens: Scottie Scheffler, +5,000. Just a matter of time. Just a matter of time. So they keep telling us. I agree.
Andrew Tursky: Collin Morikawa, +2,200. He’s obviously on a heater so this isn’t really going out on a limb, but Morikawa’s game is set up perfectly for a course that requires precision throughout 72 holes. Book another win for the young stud.
Jonathan Wall: Webb Simpson, +2,200. Sawgrass is built for the past champion. Love where his game is at heading into a big event.
Sean Zak: Jon Rahm, +1,600. Everything about Rahm’s game tells us he should win here. Everything. He’s been quiet, but not bad. Perhaps he gets it done.
Players Championship sleepers to watch
Alan Bastable: Branden Grace, +22,500. Five or six years ago, Grace seemed destined to be the next great South African major winner, notching five top-six finishes in nine major starts from 2015-17. That hasn’t panned out (yet), but Grace has begun to show signs of his old self, winning in Puerto Rico a couple of weeks ago. And that wasn’t a one-off: He also played well at Pebble (34th), Riv (20th) and last week at Bay Hill (26th). No reason to believe that good form won’t continue at Sawgrass.
Josh Berhow: Ian Poulter, +15,000. Poulter has been solid for the past year. Nothing fantastic, nothing terrible and a ton of respectable finishes around the top 35 or so. He’s made a dozen career starts at the Players and missed only two cuts while finishing second twice. If you need a dark horse, you could do much worse than Poulter.
James Colgan: Shane Lowry, +20,000. Always fun to get a major championship winner for +20,000 on tournament week. Lowry is by no means a lock to stick in contention, but I’d gladly take him above some of the other choices at these odds.
Dylan Dethier: Mackenzie Hughes, +30,000. He’s better than you think.
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Jessica Marksbury: Jhonattan Vegas, +15,000. T3 at the Players in 2019 and coming off a runner-up finish at the Puerto Rico Open. Let’s go, Jhonny!
Nick Piastowski: Victor Perez, +35,000. 350-1 odds for the 36th-ranked player in the world are way too good to pass up.
Tim Reilly: Maverick McNealy, +20,000. McNealy has the talent to get the job done. I’ll take a flier on a young kid full of potential at those odds any day.
Josh Sens: Branden Grace, +22,500. A win two weeks ago in Puerto Rico. A respectable showing this week at a blustery Bay Hill. A course that accommodates his pea-shooter style of play. Tell me why this one isn’t worth a flyer? You can’t.
Andrew Tursky: Stewart Cink, +50,000. He’s second on Tour in greens in regulation percentage and a sneaky 33rd in driving distance. I’m hoping he makes a veteran run like Furyk in 2019.
Jonathan Wall: Marc Leishman, +12,500. Going on a hunch that Leishman gets it back on track this week.
Sean Zak: Wyndham Clark, +30,000. The man has some seriously long odds here, but recently top 10’d it in L.A. Hard to hate a solid player on a tough course with mega odds.
Players Championship odds to win
Dustin Johnson 12/1
Jon Rahm 14/1
Rory McIlroy 16/1
Bryson DeChambeau 18/1
Justin Thomas 18/1
Xander Schauffele 20/1
Patrick Cantlay 20/1
Collin Morikawa 20/1
Viktor Hovland 25/1
Webb Simpson 25/1
Tony Finau 25/1
Jordan Spieth 30/1
Tyrrell Hatton 35/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Daniel Berger 40/1
Hideki Matsuyama 40/1
Tommy Fleetwood 50/1
For complete odds, click here.
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