This major champ is our long-shot pick at Royal Liverpool: 2023 Open Championship odds

Hideki Matsuyama tees off during practice at 2023 Open Championship

Hideki Matsuyama may be a Masters champion, but he's a long shot at the Open this week.

Peter Byrne/PA Images via Getty Images

The 2023 Open Championship marks the final men’s major of the year, and we’re picking a former major champion who is flying under the radar as our long-shot pick to win. Here’s our pick, the Open Championship odds, betting favorites and everything else you need to know for the week.

Open Championship odds: Long-shot bet

Our long-shot pick for this week’s Open at Royal Liverpool is Hideki Matsuyama, who comes into the week with +8000 odds-to-win.

Matsuyama is no stranger to even the casual golf fan. He’s a major champion, having triumphed at the 2021 Masters to capture his first green jacket. In all, the 31-year-old star from Japan has eight PGA Tour victories in his career, though his last win came at the 2022 Sony Open in Hawaii.

2023 Open Championship picks to win: Here’s who our staff is betting on 
By: Nick Piastowski

Hideki isn’t having his best season on Tour, having earned just two top-10 finishes in 2022-23. But he’s missed only three cuts, and he’s performed respectably in the majors so far.

At the Masters he finished T16, at the PGA he ended up T29 and at last month’s U.S. Open, a final-round 75 dropped him to T32.

Matsuyama opted not to play last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, so he’s well-rested. That combined with his pedigree and long odds makes him a solid long-shot pick this week.

Should he pull off his second major victory at Royal Liverpool, a $10 bet will earn you $800. Consider adding additional small bets on Hideki to finish top 10 and top 20.

Looking for more long-shot picks for the Open? Our honorable mention long shots for the week are Tom Kim (+4500) and Jason Day (+10000).

Open Championship odds: The favorites

Fresh off his 24th PGA Tour victory at the Genesis Scottish Open, which moved him back to No. 2 in the world, Rory McIlroy comes in as the betting favorite with +700 odds-to-win in his return to the site of his only Open victory.

Closely trailing him is World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+800), with Masters champ Jon Rahm appearing in third (+1200).

Defending champion Cameron Smith comes in fourth at +1600, with Brooks Koepka and Viktor Hovland rounding out the top-4 in odds-to-win at +2000.

You can see the top 15 and ties in Open Championship betting odds as of Monday afternoon below, or head over to BetMGM to see the full list of odds and bets for this week.

2023 Open Championship betting odds (Top 15 and ties)

Rory McIlroy (+700)
Scottie Scheffler (+800)
Jon Rahm (+1200)
Cameron Smith (+1600)
Brooks Koepka (+2000)
Viktor Hovland (+2000)
Rickie Fowler (+2200)
Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
Patrick Cantlay (+2500)
Tyrrell Hatton (+2500)
Xander Schauffele (+2500)
Collin Morikawa (+2800)
Shane Lowry (+2800)
Dustin Johnson (+3300)
Jordan Spieth (+3300)

How last week’s long-shot fared

We picked Kurt Kitayama as our long shot at the Genesis Scottish Open at +8000 odds-to-win. Kitayama successfully ended his missed-cut streak with a solid second round, but he faltered on Saturday and Sunday, finishing T54.

Check out how our long-shot picks have fared all season long below.


2023 Genesis Scottish Open: Kurt Kitayama (Odds: +8000; Finish: T54)
2023 John Deere Classic: Dylan Wu (Odds: +6600; Finish: MC)
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Austin Eckroat (Odds: +6600; Finish: MC)
2023 Travelers Championship: Adam Scott (+6600; T19)
2023 U.S. Open: Keegan Bradley (Odds:+8000; Finish: MC)
2023 RBC Canadian Open: Nick Taylor (Odds: +6600; Finish: 1)
2023 Memorial Tournament: Keegan Bradley (Odds: +6600; Finish: T30)
2023 Charles Schwab Challenge: Kurt Kitayama (Odds: +6600; Finish: T29)
2023 PGA Championship: Tyrrell Hatton (Odds: +4000; Finish: T15)
2023 AT&T Byron Nelson: J.J. Spaun (Odds: +6600; Finish: WD)
2023 Wells Fargo Championship: Sahith Theegala (Odds: +4000; Finish: T56)
2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta: Gary Woodland (Odds: +3300; Finish: T39)
2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Dahmen/McCarthy (Odds: +4000; Finish: T11)
2023 RBC Heritage: Tom Kim (Odds: +3500; Finish: MC)
2023 Masters: Tommy Fleetwood (Odds: +6600; Finish: 33)
2023 Valspar Championship: David Lingmerth (Odds: +12500; Finish: T27)
2023 Players Championship: Corey Conners (Odds: +6600; Finish: MC)
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Billy Horschel (Odds: +10000; Finish: MC)
2023 Honda Classic: Sepp Straka (Odds: +5000; Finish: T5)
2023 Genesis Invitational: Adam Scott (Odds: +5500; Finish: 65)
2023 WM Phoenix Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +8000; Finish: T10)
2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Beau Hossler (Odds +8000; Finish: T11)
2023 Farmers Insurance Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +10000; Finish: T11)
2023 Sony Open in Hawaii: Kurt Kitayama (Odds: +5000; Finish: T73)
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions: Ryan Brehm (Odds: +75000; Finish: T35)

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