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Tour Confidential: Can anyone catch Rory McIlroy at Augusta?

A male golfer in a white Nike polo holds up a golf ball and carries a putter, standing on a golf course with a focused expression. A red Tour Confidential logo is in the top right corner.

Rory McIlroy holds a six-shot lead heading into the weekend.

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Check in to GOLF’s Tour Confidential every Sunday night for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in the sport. This week, with the Masters at Augusta National, we’ll hit one key topic every night.

We are at the halfway point of the 2026 Masters, and everyone is chasing Rory McIlroy. The defending champ poured in six birdies over his final seven holes to close out his second round, posting a seven-under 65 to open up a six-shot lead. Sam Burns and Patrick Reed are tied in second at six under, while the trio of Justin Rose, Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood sit another shot back. There are still 36 holes to play, but McIlroy’s six-shot lead at the halfway mark is the largest in Masters history. Can anyone catch him?

Sean Zak, senior writer (@sean_zak): Absolutely not. Patrick Reed is playing incredible golf. McIlroy got some incredible breaks. Get them in the final pairing on Sunday and anything is in play. That said, I’m definitely afraid that it’s over. I’m considering it. I’m hopeful it’s not because that’s no fun. 

Josh Sens, senior writer (@JoshSens): Agreed. Long coronations are only fun for the player being crowned. Hard to know which Rory we’ll see, though. Is it going to be the McIlroy who squeezed the life out of the U.S. Open at Congressional and the PGA Championship at Kiawah? Or the Heart Attack Kid of last year at Augusta? My guess is something in between. I expect him to win fairly comfortably in the end, but I also think he’ll make it interesting along the way with a loose, perplexing swing here and there — with some help from the guys chasing him.

Zephyr Melton, associate game-improvement editor (@zephyrmelton): As Rory knows all too well, no lead is safe around Augusta National. A six-shot cushion is great heading into the weekend, but there’s nothing harder than playing with a lead. He’ll now sleep on the lead for the second straight night — and I’d imagine sleep will be hard to come by. These next 36 holes will go a long way in defining Rory’s legacy, a fact I’m sure he is well aware of. Playing with that on his mind will be no easy task.

Josh Schrock, associate news editor (@schrock_and_awe): There’s still a lot of golf to be played, but I do fear that we are another good nine-hole stretch away from this being a coronation. Rory is 90th in driving accuracy out of 91 players in the field and leads by six. He has gotten some breaks but has also been patient, taken his medicine and taken advantage of the bounces when he has gotten them. Patrick Reed and Justin Rose are playing good golf and I would expect one of them to push Rory over the weekend, but we’re on the verge of this thing being over before we get to Sunday.

James Colgan, news and features editor (@jamescolgan26): Nope, definitely not over. In fact, there’s a persuasive argument that the story only just now gets interesting. I’m sorta amazed by how much time is left. If a six-shot lead becomes a three-shot lead tomorrow, nobody will bat an eye … but that’ll make Sunday afternoon tight. Rory isn’t just battling the field now, he’s battling complacency.

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