PINEHURST, N.C. — Tony Finau putted into a bunker. Bryson DeChambeau made a birdie, had his physio work on his hips in the Pinehurst pine straw immediately after, and then made another birdie. Ludvig Aberg barely missed a fairway all week, then started missing some in bunches, and then made a triple bogey and tumbled down the leaderboard.
Oh, and Rory McIlroy played well again, and he’s in contention to snap a lengthy major drought.
The third round of the 2024 U.S. Open had it all, but the man at the top is DeChambeau, who shot a three-under 67 on Saturday at Pinehurst No. 2 and sits at seven under after 54 holes, three clear of a trio of contenders. DeChambeau, whose only other major championship came in 2020, when he won the U.S. Open at Winged Foot, will now try to check off major No. 2 come Sunday.
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But who are his biggest threats? Let’s (subjectively) rank the contenders, which for this exercise will consist of the seven other players under par.
7. Ludvig Aberg (2 under, 5 back)
Aberg led or was tied for the lead for much of the front nine on Saturday, but what was essentially a three-chip 13th hole led to a disastrous triple bogey. He’s been excellent nearly everywhere this week — 2nd SG: Off the tee; 9th SG: Approach; and 4th SG: Putting — but he’s lost strokes to the field around the greens (-2.923). Scrambling is crucial at Pinehurst No. 2, and Aberg hasn’t done it well enough to stay on top of the leaderboard.
6. Tony Finau (1 under, 6 back)
Finau has 10 top 10s in 32 career majors, but none in the last three years. There’s a good chance he’ll get one come Sunday, but how far can he climb? He’s done pretty much everything well this week, especially off the tee and into the green. But a bogey-triple bogey stretch on the back nine Saturday might have dropped him too far out of contention to win.
5. Tyrrell Hatton (1 under, 6 back)
The sleeper of this group. He’s one under and has lots of work to do, but he’s also six off the lead and can play a little loose and aggressive. Here’s predicting one of the game’s top putters starts strong and records his best major finish ever.
4. Patrick Cantlay (4 under, 3 back)
You know the drill here. Twenty-nine major starts and just four top 10s, and only one (a T3 at the 2019 PGA) better than a T8. He’ll almost certainly claim another top 10 on Sunday, but even the hot putter he’s been riding this week might not be enough to topple DeChambeau.
3. Hideki Matsuyama (2 under, 5 back)
Matsuyama snuck up the leaderboard with a two-under back nine on Saturday, which would have been even better if not for a bogey on 18. One of the sport’s best ball-strikers will get himself in position to make birdies come Sunday, but starting the day five back might be too big a hole.
2. Matthieu Pavon (4 under, 3 back)
Breaking news: Matthieu Pavon seems to be here to stay. Forget that he’s missed the cut in his last two starts — he won the Farmers earlier this year and finished T12 at the Masters. And this week, at a tough Pinehurst No. 2 track, he hasn’t faded. He’d be in even worse position if it weren’t for some nifty scrambling during Saturday’s third round. He’ll be in the final pairing with DeChambeau, who’s won the galleries all week long. It will be a challenge for sure.
1. Rory McIlroy (4 under, 3 back)
Well, do you think he can do it? This is McIlroy’s 37th major since he won his last, the 2014 PGA Championship. He has three shots to make up and will play in the penultimate pairing ahead of DeChambeau and Pavon. No one has been better tee-to-green this week, and there might be some added motivation since he’s paired with Cantlay, a duo that has some history. Will that help McIlroy? Will he even think about it? Can he catch DeChambeau? Will DeChambeau come back to him? We can’t wait to find out.
