HOYLAKE, England – It was 3:29 p.m. when the loudest ovation of the day ripped through the first tee box at Royal Liverpool.
Brian Harman, the Open Championship’s runaway 36-hole leader, was less than 60 seconds away from teeing off. Tommy Fleetwood, his playing partner and the tournament’s runaway fan favorite, stood next to him.
But the noise did not come from the first tee, where the two 36-hole leaders were readying to begin their rounds. It emanated from just a few feet to their left, on the 18th green, where a sleeping giant had come roaring to life.
Jon Rahm had just shot a biblical Saturday 63, the lowest round at Royal Liverpool in the history of Open Championship play at the course. He had vaulted himself eight shots up the leaderboard, trailing Harman by just four. With the PGA Tour journeyman about to play the biggest, most consequential round of his life, the energy shift on the first tee was palpable.
Rahm was coming, and Harman had better keep some distance between them.
But then a funny thing happened. Harman did just that, shooting a two-under 69 to push his 54-hole total to 12 under. It was not without stress — notably, during a two-bogey opening stretch that briefly shrunk his lead to two — but ultimately Harman was the tougher, and better, golfer.
It goes without saying that he enters Sunday the heavy favorite to leave Royal Liverpool the “champion golfer of the year.” But three rounds does not a champion make. Harman will have to earn the Claret Jug on Sunday, and he’ll have to outlast these nine golfers to do it.
The Contenders
1. Jon Rahm (six under, six back)
Oh, you’re saying Jon Rahm can win this Open? The reigning Masters champ, multiple-time world no. 1, certified baller and destroyer of worlds — that Jon Rahm?
Of course Rahm is the biggest threat to Harman’s title run among the golfers even remotely close to the top of the leaderboard. He is arguably the most physically gifted golfer on the planet, and his ceiling is as high as any player since Tiger Woods. It was surprise exactly nobody if Rahm shot another 63 on Sunday.
“The job today was to come out and give myself the best opportunity I could,” he said Saturday. “Whenever you get a birdie, just thinking about one more. That’s simply all you can do.”
That’s the kind of killer mindset — and relentlessness — needed to chase down a leader on a Sunday at a major. He’ll need those traits if the weather is similarly tame on Sunday afternoon.
If there’s one player in the field causing Harman to lose a wink of sleep tonight, it’s Johnny, err…Jonny?
2. Cam Young (seven under, five back)
Cam Young does not have the major-championship pedigree of Rahm. But he does have strokes on him, and that’s a big deal. He enters Sunday five back of Harman, and as he pointed out on Saturday evening, he has an abundance of experience with a different kind of tournament pressure.
“I’ve had a little bit of a rough like couple months; I’ve made a lot of cuts on the number,” he said. “If you go back and look I’ve made one or two birdies in the last two or three holes, or at the U.S. Open like three great pars in a row to make the cut on the number. I feel like mentally being able to do that with the golf that is hanging around the cut line is really something I feel like we’ve been able to build on as I’ve started to play some better golf.”
It doesn’t take Tiger to know the difference between a Claret Jug and a paycheck at the John Deere is … substantial. But Young’s brand of high-flying, pin-seeking ball-striking could be perfectly suited for the limp conditions forecast for Sunday afternoon.
“I think you just kind of have to see how the first couple holes play out tomorrow,” he said. “Then you maybe start aiming at things that you might not otherwise.”
He’s not the name anyone expects to be atop the leaderboard, but he’s one-half of Sunday’s final pairing, and he certainly has the talent to meet the moment.
3. Viktor Hovland (five under, seven back)
Seven back? Eek!
But if anyone from the pack of five-under players is likely to mount a serious push on Sunday, it’s Hovland, who has top-25 finishes in every major dating back to last year’s Open. Hovland had his heart ripped out at both the Masters and PGA Championship, and had another near-miss in a 19th-place finish at the U.S. Open.
Now he finds himself with the chance to hunt for pins — and a low score on Open Sunday. His skillset as a ball-striker and contender are certainly there. If Harman flinches early, Viktor could be the guy to watch.
The Lurkers
4. Tommy Fleetwood (five under, seven back)
It’s not a stretch to say this Open means more to Tommy Lad than most. Fleetwood is a Scouse native. He is beloved by the Royal Liverpool faithful. Everyone around the tournament — including Tommy himself — seems to be willing him to victory.
It helps too that Fleetwood has not one but both of the final-round 63s in major championship history, at both the 2018 and 2023 U.S. Opens. That version of Fleetwood hasn’t been on display thus far this week, but he’ll need to channel it on Sunday afternoon to push himself into contention.
One moment from Jon Rahm proved he isn’t like the rest of us
5. Jason Day (five under, seven back)
Day has plodded his way carefully around Royal Liverpool all week, but now it’s time to find out if he’s bided enough time to summon a vintage performance.
Sneakily in contention with back-to-back rounds in the 60s, Day enters Sunday with ideal conditions for his bomb-and-gauge style of play and some of his best form in years.
His win at the 2015 PGA may feel like several lifetimes ago, but it could loom large in a final-round field lacking major-championship experience.
The Longshots
6. Sepp Straka (five under, seven back)
The pitch for Straka is that he is a ballstriker in the build of Rahm with a victory two weeks ago, and he has one of the most experienced caddies on Tour on his bag.
If not for his bogey on the 18th on Saturday, he might have found himself even higher on this list.
7. Alex Fitzpatrick (four under, eight back)
The younger brother of former U.S. Open winner Matthew Fitzpatrick is having a hell of an Open for himself, his Saturday 65 pushing him to three under for the week.
Of course, Alex has none of the major-championship experience of his older brother, but if there’s a way to pick up on golf knowledge by osmosis, you can rest assured the Fitzpatrick boys have it figured out.
8. Matthew Jordan (three under, nine back)
Rumor has it the local kid shot a 62 at Royal Liverpool in the weeks leading up to the Open.
He’ll need another 62 on Sunday just to have a prayer. But then again, if someone is going to do it, it might well be Jordo.
9. Rory McIlroy (three under, nine back)
The stats tell the story of Rory’s week. First in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee; 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach … 111th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
It’s why McIlroy opted for extra time on the practice green over an interview session with the media. It’s why he stumbled into the perfect imaginable scoring conditions and only recorded a 69. It’s why he’s nine strokes off the lead.
About the only chance Rory has left is to hope Brian Harman accidentally booked his Airbnb at — and summoned evil spirits from — the site of an ancient burial ground.
It can’t happen. It WON’T happen…
…but maybe the putter finally gets hot.
The Obvious Choice
Brian Harman (12 under, leader by five)
We can’t come all this way without giving Harman his due. The man has played lights-out golf at Royal Liverpool. He’s been smart, focused and has managed to avoid the big mistake. Now, he has a five-stroke lead to show for it and is the overwhelming favorite to win the final major of 2023.
It would be a shocking victory — one that puts him firmly in the crosshairs of a stunning bid for the U.S. Ryder Cup team — but after three days, there is no arguing it would be deserved.
Let’s come to terms with it: Brian Harman will very likely be holding the Claret Jug come Sunday evening.
Unless…