This week the PGA Tour heads to Mexico for the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta, and we’re picking a long shot who is flashing signs of his formerly elite level of play. Here’s our pick, the Mexico Open betting favorites and everything else you need to know for the week.
Mexico Open odds: Long-shot bet
The betting odds for this week’s Mexico Open are so lopsided, any player outside of defending champion Jon Rahm and Tony Finau can be considered a long shot. With that in mind, we’re putting our money on Gary Woodland, who comes into the week with +3300 odds to win.
Tour Confidential: Tiger Woods’ latest setback, odd Zurich Classic pairings
Woodland, the 2019 U.S. Open champion, is having a solid season. He has recorded two top 10s so far this year, including a T9 at the Cadence Bank Houston Open and another T9 at the Genesis Invitational against a star-studded field. At the first major of the year, Woodland flashed some fine form, opening with a 68 at Augusta National for a T14 Masters finish, following it up with a T31 at the RBC Heritage. On top of that, he’s only missed three cuts in 14 starts.
Last season he collected five top 10s and two top 5s, and he finished T24 at the Mexico Open, the first time the tournament was an official PGA Tour event.
If Rahm understandably stumbles out of the gate due to his whirlwind last few weeks, it would open a great opportunity for Woodland. Should he pull off a victory, a $10 bet on his side will earn you $330. For an insurance bet or one with less risk, consider an additional bet for Woodland to finish in the top 10 or top 20.
How last week’s long shot fared
For last week’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans, we picked Joel Dahmen and Denny McCarthy as our long shots to win the only team event on the PGA Tour schedule at +4000.
Dahmen and McCarthy didn’t disappoint, putting together four solid rounds to outplay their pre-tournament odds and finish T11 at 21 under. It wasn’t exactly a long-shot win, but it was the fifth top-11 or better finish for our long-shot picks this year, so we’re inching back in the right direction.
PAST RESULTS
2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Denny McCarthy/Joel Dahmen (Odds: +4000; Finish: T11)
2023 RBC Heritage: Tom Kim (Odds: +3500; Finish: MC)
2023 Masters: Tommy Fleetwood (Odds: +6600; Finish: 33)
2023 Valspar Championship: David Lingmerth (Odds: +12500; Finish: T27)
2023 Players Championship: Corey Conners (Odds: +6600; Finish: MC)
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Billy Horschel (Odds: +10000; Finish: MC)
2023 Honda Classic: Sepp Straka (Odds: +5000; Finish: T5)
2023 Genesis Invitational: Adam Scott (Odds: +5500; Finish: 65)
2023 WM Phoenix Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +8000; Finish: T10)
2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Beau Hossler (Odds +8000; Finish: T11)
2023 Farmers Insurance Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +10000; Finish: T11)
2023 Sony Open in Hawaii: Kurt Kitayama (Odds: +5000; Finish: T73)
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions: Ryan Brehm (Odds: +75000; Finish: T35)
Mexico Open odds: The favorites
The list of betting favorites for this week’s Mexico Open is as lopsided as it gets. Rahm — the defending champion, Masters champion and World No. 1 — has odds to win of +240. Not far behind is Tony Finau, who finished T2 in Mexico last year, at +750.
For third place the oddsmakers have Wyndham Clark early in the week, but his odds to win drop steeply to +2000.
You can see the top 10 and ties in Mexico Open betting odds as of Monday morning below, or head over to BetMGM to see the full list of odds and bets for this week.
2023 Mexico Open betting odds (Top 10 and ties)
Jon Rahm (+240)
Tony Finau (+750)
Wyndham Clark (+2000)
Patrick Rodgers (+3000)
Gary Woodland (+3300)
Aaron Rai (+4000)
Alex Noren (+4000)
Byeong Hun An (+4000)
Maverick McNealy (+4000)
Nicolai Hojgaard (+4000)