Until last season, the FedEx Cup Playoffs welcomed the PGA Tour’s top 125 to the postseason — and those 125 received a full Tour card for the following season, too. But things have changed. Belts have tightened. Playoff berths have shrunk to 70, in line with rough field sizes at the Tour’s Signature Events, which means entrance has grown more competitive.
At this point in the year, chances for improvement have grown scarce; this week’s 3M Open and the Wyndham Championship in two weeks’ time conclude the regular season. And with fewer golfers qualifying, more names you know are left on the outside looking in.
Here are 15 of ’em.
TIER 3: Not gonna happen
15. Tiger Woods (No. 222 in FedEx Cup)
His FedEx Cup miss won’t come as a surprise, but Tiger’s absence remains worth noting; his only points this year came in a 60th-place finish at the Masters.
14. Kevin Kisner (No. 211 in FedEx Cup)
It’s been a trying year on the course for Kisner, who ranks outside the top 170 in strokes gained off the tee, approaching the green and around the green. (He’s still gaining strokes putting.) He’s made just four cuts in 16 starts and even those four haven’t panned out; his best finish is T64. It’s less than two years since Kisner was a part of a winning Presidents Cup team — now he’ll have to wait for the fall to start the next chapter of his comeback.
13. Francesco Molinari (No. 203 in FedEx Cup)
The 2018 Open champion and 2019 Ryder Cup hero has been chasing his former self for several years now; he made just four cuts in 12 starts this season and his best result came in a T46 at the Genesis Scottish Open.
12. Padraig Harrington (No. 177 in FedEx Cup)
Harrington doesn’t play all that much golf on the PGA Tour these days, so most of his points come from a T22 finish at last week’s Open Championship. But even that didn’t satisfy the big-dreaming Irishman, who confessed he was disappointed not to contend for the win.
“I’ll be back,” he said. “I’m not retiring yet.”
TIER 2: So you’re saying there’s a chance…
11. Matt Kuchar (No. 155 in FedEx Cup)
Last year, when Adam Scott finished No. 72 in the FedEx Cup, Kuchar officially became the only player to make all 17 editions of the playoffs. That streak appears in serious jeopardy; he’s made five of his last seven cuts but has just a single top-20 finish this season.
10. Zach Johnson (No. 148 in FedEx Cup)
Last year’s American Ryder Cup captain has made eight of 14 cuts but has no finish higher than T19; the FedEx Cup rewards brilliance over consistency.
9. Webb Simpson (No. 145 in FedEx Cup)
For several years Simpson was among the best players in the world; his vice-captain appointment to Keegan Bradley’s Ryder Cup staff earlier this week signaled a shift to the next phase of his career.
8. Daniel Berger (No. 136 in FedEx Cup)
Berger earned the final point at the 2021 Ryder Cup and was a mainstay among the top Americans in the world. Then he disappeared for a while, battling injury, before staging a comeback this season — but the game hasn’t returned quite so easily. He’s shown flashes of strong play including a T13 at the Byron Nelson and a T21 at the U.S. Open, but Berger has work to do to get back to where he thinks he belongs in the game.
7. Joel Dahmen (No. 113 in FedEx Cup)
Dahmen is a massive fan favorite — particularly since Netflix stardom — but had hit a rough patch before reeling off eight consecutive made cuts this summer. Still, he has just two top-20s and therefore needs something special if he’ll make it to Memphis.
6. Rickie Fowler (No. 100 in FedEx Cup)
Fowler hasn’t had trouble making it to the weekend, he just hasn’t spent much time in contention once he’s gotten there. No finish better than T18 has him on the outside looking in.
TIER 1: The bubble boys
5. Nicolai Hojgaard (No. 77 in FedEx Cup)
As one member of last year’s European Ryder Cup youth movement, the 23-year-old Hojgaard started his season hot with a second-place finish at Torrey Pines and made noise in a T16 at Augusta National but hasn’t cracked the top 30 otherwise.
4. Keith Mitchell (No. 76 in FedEx Cup)
Mitchell has two T9s and a T10 this year plus six additional top-20 finishes; it’s surprising to see him on the outside looking in. He’s among the better players at this week’s 3M Open; he’ll need a couple good weeks to make the playoffs.
3. Lucas Glover (No. 71 in FedEx Cup)
Last year this time Glover was in the midst of reclaiming his career with a string of top-five finishes capped off by wins at the Wyndham (to get into the playoffs) and the FedEx St. Jude (to prove he belonged). One year later it’s only fitting that he needs a memorable finish at the Wyndham (he’s not playing the 3M) to cross the threshold again.
2. Davis Riley (No. 70 in FedEx Cup)
It used to be somewhat rare to win and miss the playoffs; this year Riley is on the bubble despite winning the Charles Schwab Challenge while alternate-event champs Chris Gotterup and Brice Garnett are each on the outside looking in, too.
1. Maverick McNealy (No. 67 in FedEx Cup)
His year was off to a strong start with top-10 finishes at the WM Phoenix Open and the Players Championship, but after stalling out in his last few starts he’ll need to stave off challengers to make it to the playoffs, too.
TIER 0 (bonus tier): Should be safe, unless…
5. Nick Dunlap (No. 64)
How can you win twice in a season and miss the playoffs? Start by winning once as an amateur; Dunlap collected zero points at the American Express, which he won as a colleg kid. But he picked up a bunch more as a seasoned pro winning last week’s Barracuda Championship.
4. Mark Hubbard (No. 63)
Hubbard has missed just one cut all season, so it seems wrong that he’s not well inside the top-50 Signature Event player cutoff. But while he has been good on Thursdays (41st in Rd. 1 scoring average) and terrific on cut day (fourth in Rd. 2) those numbers have slipped to 103rd on Saturdays and 88th on Sundays, leading to a string of middling results.
3. Taylor Moore (No. 62)
Moore finished inside the top 20 at the year’s first two majors as well as second at the Houston Open but has cooled off with five missed cuts in seven starts.
2. Jordan Spieth (No. 61)
Spieth’s year began with a third-place finish at the Sentry; then he finished T6 at the WM Phoenix Open and was in contention at the Genesis until signing for the wrong scorecard, earning a DQ. He’s cracked the top 20 just once since.
1. Min Woo Lee (No. 60)
He finished T2 at the Cognizant Classic and T2 again at the Rocket Mortgage; let this man cook all the way to the playoffs.
FEDEX CUP BUBBLE (as of July 24, pre-3M Open)
79. Adam Svensson
78. Kurt Kitayama
77. Nicolai Hojgaard
76. Keith Mitchell
75. Adam Schenk
74. Andrew Putnam
73. Lee Hodges
72. Lucas Glover
71. Luke List
70. Davis Riley
69. Victor Perez
68. Maverick McNealy
67. Emiliano Grillo
66. Seamus Power
65. Brendon Todd
64. Nick Dunlap
63. Mark Hubbard
62. Taylor Moore
61. Jordan Spieth
60. Min Woo Lee