Patrick Cantlay to win. Lanto Griffin to top 10. The Zozo Championship to be decided by a three-man playoff. At around 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, our Josh Sens was staring at a Sherwood sweep. All three of his bets were coming home.
At around 7:30 or so, all three of his bets were stuck in traffic.
âKnowing my luck, Rahm will birdie the last and win in a playoff,â Sens messaged me. âAbout an hour ago, I was thinking I had a clean sweep. Cantlay. Griffin. Three-man playoff.â
âHaha. I got a bad beat story all written up for you,â I wrote back.
Rewrite!
Cantlay would cash. Griffin and the three-man playoff would not. A $2,900 cashout for his $300 investment.
It could have been $5,200.
Not quite a bad beat. Not quite like the ones Scott Van Pelt shares on âSportsCenter,â for sure. Sens did win the biggest one. But he lost two. And almost lost three.
What do you do? To essentially have your distance and speed right on a putt â only to see your ball hit a spike mark. Do like Tiger.
âThe number one thing that struck me every round that weâve played together is that heâll get mad, but he wonât get negative,â Jordan Spieth said earlier this year on the âEarn Your Edgeâ podcast, which is hosted by Altus Performanceâs Corey Lundberg and Cameron McCormick, Spiethâs swing coach. âIâve never heard him get negative. And Iâm trying to take that into my game, where Iâve been less mad and more negative.
âHeâll hit a shot, and heâll let himself know about it. But itâs mad. Itâs not, âI canât figure this out.â Thereâs no canât. âOr Iâm struggling with this.â Itâs literally just him to himself, gets the anger out and then moves on. Iâve never once heard him be negative.â
Of course, if youâve followed this column, youâve had only good wins. No bad beats. The above is just theoretical.
This week, the PGA Tour is playing the Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton, Bermuda. Our Tim Reilly has shared our picks on social media for 20 weeks, so weâll let him kick things off this week. Who does he like?
Brendon Todd, at +1,400.
âTodd is going to make it back-to-back after winning last yearâs event,â Reilly wrote. âWith a weak field in place, itâs a golden opportunity for the defending champ to hoist another trophy.â
A quick refresher on our game. Twelve members of our staff will make three $100 bets â to win, top 10 and a prop bet of choice â for each tournament from the Charles Schwab Challenge through the Masters in November. Each member starts with $4,000, and the odds will come from the DraftKings website. The first-place finisher will play a round of golf when itâs all said and done, and the last-place finisher is on the bag for the winner.
Our primary goal, of course, is to help you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook.
The picks (in order of money total)
Jessica Marksbury ($9,309)
To-win: Brendon Todd, +1,400. Having a hard time picking this week, so going with last yearâs winner. And he still has decent odds!
Top 10: Denny McCarthy, +400. McCarthy was T15 last year. Thatâs good enough reason for me to pick him for a Top 10 this week.
Prop: Top 20, Henrik Stenson, +150. Itâs Henrik Stenson! Heâs gotta be a lock for a Top 20 this week. Right?!
Josh Sens ($7,913)
To-win: Emiliano Grillo, +2,500. After consulting with some musty texts on Chinese numerology that I keep in the office here, I decided, for no particular reason, to divide todayâs star date by Pi. That equation yielded a five-digit figure, which, if you ignore it entirely, corresponds to the following five letters in our 26-letter alphabet: Grillo. Remarkable.
Top 10: Stewart Cink, +500. Cink has been doing a Benjamin Button lately and aging backwards. A win in Napa. A strong showing at the Sanderson Farms event. I like these odds for a top-10 against what is something less than the gameâs strongest field.
Prop: Top European finisher, Sepp Straka, +500. Fun fact: In Strakaâs native German, his name means, âSleeper Pick.â
Nick Piastowski ($6,318)
To-win: Justin Suh, +4,400. The decorated college player breaks through.
Top 10: Brendon Todd, +164. Iâm not going to overthink this one. Heâs the defending champ and the highest-rated player in the field.
Prop: Leader after Round 1, Wes Roach, +9,000. He missed the first-round lead by a stroke last year.
Jonathan Wall ($5,778)
To-win: Peter Malnati, +4,500. Closed my eyes and randomly picked a player from the field list. Iâll try anything at this point.
Top 10: Dennny McCarthy, +400. Gimme one of the best putters on Tour.
Prop: Leader after Round 1, Wes Roach, +9000. Opened with 63 last year. Can he do it again?
Sean Zak ($5,702.30)
To win: Henrik Stenson, +3500. I maintain the position that he is too good a ball-striker. Those Bermuda winds are nothing.
Top 10: Alex Cjeka, +3300. This is truly a shot in the dark to make some money.
Prop: Top American, Jason Dufner, +5000. Again, trying to strike gold!
James Colgan ($4,101)
To win: Brendon Todd, +1400. Itâs been a minute since weâve heard about old Brendon, but Iâd still be hard-pressed to take anyone in a field like this over him.
Top 10: Maverick McNealy, +550). Fresh off a T17 at the Sanderson Farms, I like Mav to break back into the top 10 this week.
Prop: Sepp Straka, top-20 finish, +250. Solid odds for a very solid player, Iâm rolling with a top-20 finish from Sepp this week.
Zephyr Melton ($3,575)
To-win: Brendon Todd, +1400. The start of Todd’s white-hot campaign last season came at Bermuda, so it feels appropriate that he’d find a place atop the leaderboard this time around. With the weather calling for windy conditions, I like a player who is a fairway finder like Todd.
Top 10: Brendon Todd, +164. I believe in the man who hits it as far as I do.
Prop: Top American, Brendon Todd, +1100. All in on Todd this week.
Josh Berhow ($3,499)
To win: Justin Suh, +3500. He’s been no worse than T14 in his last two PGA Tour starts after a rough go of it earlier this year. He’s a part of that stellar group that turned pro in 2019 â along with Morikawa, Hovland and Wolff â and it’s his turn to breakout at some point.
Top 10: Brendon Todd, +164. Easy money.
Prop: Michael Gligic, top Canadian, +200. We’ve got a 25 percent chance here. Let’s go, Michael!
Tim Reilly ($2,950)
To-win: Brendon Todd, +1,400. âTodd is going to make it back-to-back after winning last yearâs event. With a weak field in place, itâs a golden opportunity for the defending champ to hoist another trophy.â
Top 10: Will Zalatoris, +150. The odds-on favorite this week doesnât even have a Tour card. Zalatoris might not win, but heâll be damn near the top of the leaderboard once again.
Prop: Winning margin, three strokes, +600. I need the money!
Andrew Tursky ($2,600)
To win: Charley Hoffman, +3500. He finished T6 at the Sanderson Farms earlier this month, and heâs a low-ball hitter who may navigate the windy Bermuda conditions well. I like the value here, too.
Top 10: Brendon Todd, +164. Todd is an absolute lock to finish top 10. Yes, Iâm giving up some value being that heâs a favorite, but I need a sure thing this week.
Prop: Playoff, +400. I take this prop pretty much every week and it hasnât treated me well recently, so Iâm doing the smart thing and taking it again.
Alan Bastable ($1,560)
To win: Peter Malnati, +4,500. Câmon, +4,500!? My guyâs coming off a runner-up finish at the Sanderson Farms and a T5 at the Shriners. He should probably be the favorite this week.
Top 10: Emiliano Grillo, +225. Hasnât missed a cut since mid July. Stellar ballstriker. Just needs to get the putter going.
Prop: Winning margin, 2 strokes, +250. More specifically, Malnati by two.
Dylan Dethier ($450)
To win: Charley Hoffman, +3500. Weâre on the brink here. Might be my last week in the black. Time to trust in the Hoff.
Top 10: Charley Hoffman, +400. Câmon, Charley. My betting future depends on it.
Prop: Will Gordon, top 5 American finisher, +1400. He contended at the Travelers and hasnât made much noise since. Hereâs where Will rises again!