Here, in the piece headlined “2024 Masters sleeper picks to watch: Here’s who might break out at Augusta,” you won’t find Scottie Scheffler. Or Jon Rahm. Or Rory McIlroy. Or Brooks Koepka. Their odds to win are too good. We’ll be digging deeper.
Into the 100-1 bunch.
Where you’ll find a dude:
— Who tied for sixth at the Players Championship;
— Who, after his Players final round, said he believed he was focusing better;
— Who hasn’t missed a cut in nine events this year;
— Who hasn’t missed a cut at Augusta National since doing so at his first Masters, with finishes of 29th, 39th, 34th, 12th, 21st and 24th
And there’s also this, which was first spotted by CBS’ Kyle Porter: Entering last week’s Texas Open, the pro was third this season on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. Above him were: Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, while immediately below him were Hideki Matsuyama, Shane Lowry and Tony Finau.
Or put another way, in that metric, you’ll find a pro with 100-1 odds to win the Masters — among players who have 4-1 odds (Scheffler), 20-1 odds (Schauffele), 28-1 odds (Matsuyama), 40-1 odds (Lowry) and 33-1 odds (Finau).
Interesting.
Of course, backing Si Woo Kim is risky.
The putting has been worrisome this year (138th in SG: Putting). And there’s also his adventurous moment in 2021, when he snapped his putter on the 15th green. (On the final three greens, he putted with his 3-wood.) And those are among the reasons he’s lower on the odds board.
But there’s maybe some value to be found.
With that, let’s continue to dig. Below, members of our staff have each made a long-shot selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish.
On to our analysis.
2024 Masters sleeper picks to watch
Ryan Barath
Sleeper pick: Grayson Murray, +40,000. Grayson has won this year, and drives it well. Looking at his most-recent results, he closed out the Players with a Sunday 64, and considering his odds, I think this is a great little pick.
Josh Berhow
Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +8,000. He hasn’t played great this year, and you might be surprised to learn this is his first Masters in four years, but he’s always played well at Augusta (five top-12 finishes) and maybe, just maybe, some day he’s going to win the big one. Logic says it might be on a course he’s got more familiarity with than about three-fourths of the field. (Sleeper pick runner-up: Russell Henley.)
Adam Christensen
Sleeper pick: Byeong Hun An, +15,000. Not only has he been playing some great golf this season, but his game is a great fit for Augusta. Absolutely bombs the ball off the tee and has the short game to work with the slopes around Augusta. If he has an above-average putting week, he will have a chance. Si Woo Kim (+10,000) is another intriguing option. He’s played well to start the year, posting elite approach and around the green numbers. He could improve his chances by snapping the putter and moving to the 3-wood earlier in the week this time.
James Colgan
Sleeper pick: Nicolai Hojgaard, +15,000. A rising Ryder Cupper at 150-1? Sign me up. Nicolai’s got ball-striking prowess for days and, most importantly, the spunk to show up at Augusta National and genuinely believe he’ll leave with a green jacket. For six times the odds of fellow Masters rookie Ludvig Aberg, I like it. And if you’re looking for comatose sleepers? Look no further than Adrian Meronk.
How often favorites win tournaments (and when to bet on them)
Dylan Dethier
Sleeper pick: Erik van Rooyen, +15,000. He may be available at this price because he’s been so bad in major championships. But he’s a different player now! For bonus picks, gimme Stephan Jaeger and Si Woo Kim (both at 100-1), Ben An (150-1) plus Harris English (125-1) and let’s throw some darts.
Nick Dimengo
Sleeper pick: Gary Woodland, +25,000. I know, Woodland’s still working his way back after having major surgery to remove a brain lesion last August, but isn’t Augusta where magic happens? There wouldn’t be a better story than to see the 39-year-old shock the golf world by earning his first-ever green jacket, so I’m here for it. Plus, he’s already a major champ — having won the 2019 U.S. Open — and he had his best-ever finish at the Masters last year (T14), so give me this and let’s all remember why we love the game of golf so much.
Connor Federico
Sleeper pick: Nick Dunlap, +25,000. Remember all the noise amateur Sam Bennett made last year at Augusta? Well, while Dunlap isn’t an amateur any longer, he and Bennett are the most recent U.S. Am champions — and I like this prodigious newcomer to play his way into the final group, just like Bennett did last year. For many who’ve watched Dunlap’s meteoric rise from college sophomore to PGA Tour winner in the past few months, it’s not a question of if Dunlap wins a green jacket, but when.
Jack Hirsh
Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +17,500!!!!!!! These odds are just silly. Criminal. They’re worse than Tiger’s or Phil’s (125-1). As disrespectful as leaving him off the Ryder Cup team would have been. Oh, that happened? Keegs is going to be eager to prove himself as a major champ once again. Had a good January with a playoff loss at Sony and a T11 at Pebble. Though, these odds are probably a product of missing three out of his past four cuts. While he never has recorded a top-10 at the Masters, he’s also missed the cut only once in seven tries.
Nick Piastowski
Sleeper pick: Si Woo Kim, +10,000. Heading into last week’s Texas Open, Kim was third in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on the PGA Tour. I like that. Just needs a hot putter for four days.
Josh Sens
Sleeper pick: Corey Conners, +6,600. Prior to his missed cut at Augusta last year, Conners had three consecutive top 10s at the Masters. He also has a habit of making runs up the leaderboard in big events. Whether his putter can hold up is a question. Another question is whether 66-to-1 really counts as a dark horse. But tell me you wouldn’t be happy with that payout. I would. And I don’t see any longer shots that really appeal.
Four experts on how to bet on PGA Tour golf like a professional gambler
Jonathan Wall
Sleeper pick: Nicolai Hojgaard, +15,000. Going against conventional wisdom that states you should avoid first-timers at the Masters. I think the Dane has the pedigree to bust the trend.
Sean Zak
Sleeper pick: Russell Henley, +8,000. No one has played better golf while flying completely under the radar for the past 12 months. No one. Henley is ranked 15th by DataGolf, but was never really in the running for a Ryder Cup pick last fall. He’s really never been in the running for a bunch of victories, either. But it was just last year that he tied for fourth at Augusta.
