Five down.
Five (or more) to go.
That was the word from Brooks Koepka, one week after he had won the PGA Championship for his fifth major championship. At LIV Golf’s event near the nation’s capital, he had been asked: “Now that you’re at five and you’re 33, reasonably where do you see you can go?”
“I’ve always said double digits,” Koepka said. “I think I’ve said that a few times. But yeah, I don’t think it’s unreasonable. The last few years — it was just kind of like last year, I felt absent from the majors, but even in ’20 right after my surgery or ’21, I was still contending. I don’t see any reason why I can’t. Your prime in golf is probably 30 to 40, so I’ve got another few good years in me.”
Of course, no time like the present, right?
Could Koepka go back-to-back this week at the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club? Why not? He’s even won the two majors in a calendar year once before, in 2018, when he won the U.S. Open at Shinnecock, followed by the PGA Championship at Bellerive. There’s more, though. He says he’s healthy. He’s in fine form, clearly. He’s also seemingly a fit for LACC, which will offer nothing short of a heavyweight bout.
Oh, and guess who’s got his Brooksie back, to paraphrase the viral video from a few years ago.
You don’t hear too many other folks thinking they’re going to win 10 (or more) major championships.
With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win and sleeper bet for the U.S. Open. The hope is, of course, we help you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook.
On to our picks.
2023 U.S. Open expert picks to win, sleepers to watch
Ryan Barath
To-win: Brooks Koepka, +1,100. Ever since his return to good health, Brooks has been a force at majors, capped off by his win at the PGA Championship. With more rest leading up to the U.S. Open and already a two-time winner of the event, he comes away with his sixth major and cements himself as the best major golfer of his generation.
Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +6,600. Rickie has been having a great season, and although he had a tough Sunday at Memorial, his play during the rest of the event demonstrated that he can handle tough courses. LACC is going to be playing firm and fast, and I think this could be the perfect place for him to not only snag his first win in a while but also his first major.
Josh Berhow
To-win: Brooks Koepka, +1,100. It’s hard to bet against him at this point! The guy loves tough, U.S. Open-like courses, and this is, after all, a U.S. Open. You know he has that swagger back now, too, and a confident (and healthy) Brooks Koepka during the middle of a major season is bad news for everyone else.
Sleeper pick: Phil Mickelson, +15,000: Did I really want to pick Phil as a sleeper? No, not really. But did I think his odds would make him this much of a long shot? No way. Hey, the guy showed us at the Masters that he’s still got plenty of game left, and you know how much completing the career grand slam means to him. Plus, there’s also all that golf news you might have heard about in the last week, and it’s safe to assume that’s taken a little bit of weight off Mickelson’s shoulders. The guy’s gotta be entering LACC riding high.
James Colgan
To-win: Rory McIlroy, +1,100. I can see it now: Rory McIlroy wins the U.S. Open by three strokes, and in his post-tournament presser, he summarily (and literally) flips the bird at the Tour establishment for the past 18 months. “Hey Jay, thanks for the motivation,” he says with a snide smirk as he lifts the trophy. (Is this likely to happen? Almost certainly not. But a man can dream.)
Sleeper pick: Gary Woodland, +12,500. I can also see it now: Gary Woodland wins the U.S. Open by three strokes. Rather than the tasteful end to a turbulent two weeks in the sport we’re all expecting, the golf world instead comes to terms with the least narratively fulfilling victory in the entire field. As Woodland walks away with his second major in five years, his win serves as a reminder that nothing really matters anyway.
Dylan Dethier
To-win: Xander Schauffele, +2,000. I don’t think I’ve quite picked Xander to win a major 20 times yet, which means this week, I’ll finally turn a lifetime profit. Also, this dude has to win a U.S. Open at some point. Since his debut in 2017 his results are T5-T6-T2-5-T7-T14. It’s time.
Sleeper pick: Adam Scott, +8,000. What’s tan and tan and tan all over? Adam Scott in a sweater and slacks in the Southern California sunshine. The Aussie is showing sneaky form; after starting 2023 with eight consecutive finishes outside the top 20, he’s logged three top 10s in four starts. This man at this price seems like a worthwhile option.
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Nick Dimengo
To-win: Tony Finau, +2,800. I don’t really have a go-to reason for choosing Finau to win his first major, other than sheer gut instinct. I know, I know, he hasn’t necessarily performed well at the first two majors this year, but what better place than vibrant, lively, sunny Los Angeles for a vibrant, lively, sunny golfer to win?
Sleeper pick: Sahith Theegala, +5,000. My best friend sent me a soundbite from Theegala’s recent appearance on the Beyond the Clubhouse podcast that I found interesting (7-minute mark). While I tried to dismiss it, it’s too hard to ignore — the 25-year-old has played LACC more than 30 times. It’d be a helluva story for the local kid to come home and take the leap into PGA superstardom, wouldn’t it?
Jessica Marksbury
To-win: Brooks Koepka, +1,100. I’m actually really surprised he isn’t the first or even second favorite this week. In my mind, he’s the clear frontrunner. His performance in the majors thus far this year speaks for itself, but it’s also obvious that he has that intangible swagger back. Big, brawny layouts suit him, and it will be fun to watch.
Sleeper pick: Sahith Theegala, +5,000. This Southern California kid might be overlooked in favor of the other locals this week, but he’s proven his ability to perform on a big stage. His results have been a bit middling over the past few weeks, but he was ninth at the Masters and I think he’s prime for a major breakout.
Zephyr Melton
To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +750. I’m not exactly going out on a limb picking the betting favorite, but it’s hard to bet against Scottie these days. He’s hitting the ball better than anyone in the world and it keeps him in contention week in and week out. If he can even figure out the putter a little bit, he’s gonna run away with the title.
Sleeper pick: Phil Mickelson, +15,000. I’ll go with my heart here. There’s no single tournament any golfer wants more than Phil wants the U.S. Open, and it sure would be cool to see him do it. SoCal guy competing close to home should give him some extra motivation, too. Let’s see a career grand slam.
Nick Piastowski
To-win: Patrick Cantlay, +1,600. I want unflappable at LACC, with its barranca running throughout, and Hollywood off in the distance. Cantlay is nothing but Cali calm.
Sleeper pick: Adam Scott, +8,000. See above. He’s also won at Riv.
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Tim Reilly
To-win: Max Homa, +2,200. With all the craziness and mixed emotions swirling right now, we could use a U.S. Open winner who is universally beloved in the golf world. Homa knows LACC and plays it well. Yes, you will hear about this a million times, as Homa is destined to be a popular pick, and rightly so. Outside of being the popular pick, I think he’s one of the few golfers who could generate some much-needed positive vibes all around at the U.S. Open.
Sleeper pick: Phil Mickelson, +15,000. Coming off my Homa prediction, I do think the other direction this U.S. Open can go is madness. Before Phil took on the PGA Tour, he took on the USGA. How crazy would it be to see Phil, at this point in his career, win the championship that has eluded him for so long? After all the drama in recent years, months, weeks and days. Maybe we’re destined for more madness in the golf world. Unlikely? Yes. More unlikely than the PGA Tour and Public Investment Fund coming together? No. It could happen.
Josh Sens
To-win: Viktor Hovland, +1,800. It’s far too late to call Hovland a breakout star, but he has taken his game to another level this season. I’m looking for him to follow a pattern we’ve seen from other big-time talents in the run-up to their first major win — some close calls, a bit more seasoning, a prestigious win (in Hovland’s case, the Memorial). The timing seems right for his biggest victory yet.
Sleeper pick: Gary Woodland, +12,500. Despite a missed cut at Oak Hill, Woodland has been showing promising signs. A top 15 at Augusta. A top 10 at Riviera, just down the road (and by the same architect, if you are inclined to think that sort of thing matters). The chalk these days in golf is so dominant that it’s hard to imagine anyone but Scheffler, Rahm or Koepka winning. But at 125-1? That’s a reasonable play.
Marley Sims
To-win: Collin Morikawa, +2,200. I’m putting my faith in one of the most talented men on the course. The California background is helpful, too.
Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +6,600. Rickie Fowler has been showing strong form of late. One of the most popular pros to have never won a major, he gets it done this week.
Jonathan Wall
To-win: Jordan Spieth, +2,500. Spieth thrives on courses where grinding is a requirement — and it’s a guarantee the USGA will crank up the difficulty level at LACC. It’s the perfect course setup for a guy who’s due for another major victory.
Sleeper pick: Justin Suh, +12,500. Bay Area guy who went to school at USC and has some LACC course knowledge. He’s played well for stretches over the past month but hasn’t been able to string four good rounds together. I think that changes at the U.S. Open. Expect Suh to be in the hunt on the weekend.
