This is the most (and least) important metric in predicting major winners

Want to predict which golfer is going to win a major? Good luck.

Every major week, pundits submit their best guesses on who is going to take home the crown. More often than not, they’re wrong. Save for a few savants, picking the winner is seemingly a crapshoot.

Instruction

However, it is possible to narrow down your options to a handsome list of names. If you rely on strokes-gained statistics, there are some trends that point to the type of player that will win.

With the importance of strokes-gained data in mind, I did my own analysis of the advanced stats of major winners over the past five years, analyzing six strokes-gained categories trying to see if there was a commonality among them. And, surprisingly enough, a trend line did appear.

Keep in mind, I am no stats expert — but I can use a spreadsheet. And after organizing the advanced stats, I’m confident that the stats listed below are the most (and least) important in predicting a major winner.

Most important metric

Far and away the most important metric among major winners of the past five years in SG: Tee-to-Green. Since the beginning of 2017, every major winner but one has ranked inside the top 50 in SG: Tee-to-Green for the season. (Phil Mickelson is the only winner that failed to meet that criteria, representing the biggest outlier.) Additionally, every winner but four has ranked inside the the top 20 in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Ed note: Tiger Woods and Francesco Molinari did not log enough PGA Tour rounds to qualify for stroke-gained rankings in 2018.

The takeaway? If you’re going to win a major, you need to be a world-class ball striker.

Least important metric

You know the old saying “drive for show, putt for dough?” Well, it’s a bunch of bologna — at least when it comes to predicting major winners.

Twenty-two major winners have been crowned since the beginning of 2017. Just two(!) have ranked inside the top 20 in SG: Putting, and just one of them has finished the season ranked inside the top 10 (Brooks Koepka, 2017). In fact, you can be a certifiably mediocre putter and still win a major. Seven major winners over the past five years have won while being ranked outside the top 100 in SG: Putting, and four of them ranked outside the top 150.

Ed note: Tiger Woods and Francesco Molinari did not log enough PGA Tour rounds to qualify for stroke-gained rankings in 2018.

Now, while the season-long rankings don’t point to putting being an important predictive measure in majors, that doesn’t mean putting is unimportant. When a player wins a major, they tend to have a solid week on the greens — just don’t count on season-long SG: Putting stats to help you predict who’s is going to get hot.