We all want more birdies, but do you have a realistic expectation for how many a player of your handicap cards each round? It might surprise you.
Unfortunately, golfers are often delusional, and frequently get frustrated when they two-putt on a par-3 after hitting the green with their tee shot. Sure, a birdie would be nice in that situation, but making par is a win — especially if you’re a mid-to-high handicap.
Are you due for a hole-in-one? Data reveals how likely it is (based on handicap)
Since birdie opportunities are more rare for mid-to-high handicap players, they often press when they have chances. This commonly leads to bad decisions on the golf course, resulting in higher scores (and more frustration).
While it’s a boring term in golf, “course management” remains one of the most critical skills that lower handicappers possess compared to mid-to-higher handicap players. That’s because better players avoid piling on mistakes. They take what the hole gives them, and they play within their own ability. They know that a par is great, a bogey is bad and a birdie is a bonus.
How realistic is a birdie for your skill level?
This all leads to the chart above, shared on Instagram by Jon Sherman, which shows how common a birdie is based on your handicap. Sherman not only details the likely frequency of a birdie for amateur players, but also breaks down the scoring averages of Tour players on certain holes.
As you can see, even scratch golfers typically birdie just 1.5 holes each round — and it’s not frequently on par-3 holes, which many amateurs often think are easier. This is just one more birdie per round than an 11-15 handicap!
Sure, it might appear like the low-handicapper stripes every shot, but if you watch this level of golfer play, what they do better than other players is eliminate mistakes. They weigh their controlables vs. their uncontrollables, and commit to their shot.
For instance, if they miss a fairway, they simply punch out, hit a solid approach, and hope for a single putt to save par. How many mid-to-high handicappers have the discipline to do this? Not many.
So if you’re looking to lower your score, the key is to play bogey-free golf — which requires a smarter plan. It’s not about trying to hunt birdies, it’s about consistently avoiding the snowball effect after a poor shot, where one bad swing turns into two or three more bad ones.
If you find yourself getting upset for leaving birdie opportunities out there after each round, refer to Sherman’s chart above. Not only will it remind you how rare birdies are (even for the best types of players), but it can temper your expectations as well.
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